Orin
ITNYSE·Information Technology Services

Gartner, Inc. IT

Market cap $12.5BP/E 16.1× trailingGross margin 68.9%Reports Tue 3 Nov, before the open
$186.40
+7.08 (+3.95%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $124.25 – $265.85
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 19 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Gartner's Q2 2026 earnings beat and raised full-year EPS/FCF outlook sparked a 39.3% one-month rally that has pushed the stock back to its 200-day MA ($180.17), but the underlying fundamental picture remains mixed. FY2025 results show revenue of $6.50B growing only 3.67% while EPS collapsed 39.69% to $9.65 and operating income fell for a second consecutive year to $1.03B, with operating margin compressing to 15.79% from 20.94% in FY2023.

At 16.3x P/E the stock trades at a modest 3.9% discount to the peer median, but a shareholder fiduciary-duty investigation and the company's own lowered revenue guidance for 2026 offset the margin improvement story. With the stock now fully recovered to its long-term trend line after an explosive run, the risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling.

What could go wrong

  • Shareholder investigation. Bernstein Liebhard announced a fiduciary-duty investigation into certain directors and officers on August 12 and August 18, 2026, creating legal and reputational overhang that could escalate.
  • Earnings deterioration trend. FY2025 EPS fell 39.69% to $9.65 from $16.00 in FY2024, and operating income declined for two straight years from $1.24B in FY2023 to $1.03B in FY2025, suggesting structural margin pressure rather than a one-off.
  • Balance sheet leverage. Total debt rose to $3.62B in FY2025 while stockholders' equity collapsed to $320M from $1.36B in FY2024, driven by aggressive buybacks that amplify risk if earnings disappoint.
  • Overbought after sharp rally. The stock has rallied 39.3% in one month to $182.07, now sitting at the 200-day MA ($180.17) with RSI at 61.7, limiting near-term upside and increasing vulnerability to any negative surprise.

What would change my mind

Margin recovery confirmation. Q3 2026 operating margin expands above 16% with revenue growth reaccelerating above 5% YoY, confirming the raised EPS guidance is backed by top-line strengthbullish
Investigation escalation. The Bernstein Liebhard fiduciary-duty investigation leads to a formal lawsuit or SEC inquiry, or additional law firms join with specific allegationsbearish
Consulting segment stabilization. Consulting revenue returns to growth or contract-value metrics stabilize, addressing the segment weakness cited in recent coveragebullish
Guidance cut. Gartner lowers 2026 EPS or FCF outlook after having just raised it, signaling the Q2 beat was not sustainablebearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative composite · Zacks news articles 2026-08-07. Orin's read on IT; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Bamco /Ny/$985.2M1.5% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$553.0M0.0% of fund
Aqr Capital Management$541.2M0.2% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$456.4M0.0% of fund
Harris Associates L P$369.0M0.5% of fund
State Street$364.1M0.0% of fund

85 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 453 Form 4 filings, net $29.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E16.1×33.4×53.3×
EV/EBITDA10.4×22.5×—
P/S1.86×6.00×—

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−3.22σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

-1.6%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

18 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$173

$120 – $206 · −7% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 5 buy or overweight
  • 10 hold
  • 3 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 23.0× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
ITGartner, Inc.$12B16.1×10.4×68.9%12.0%401%
CDWCDW Corporation$18B16.7×12.8×21.4%4.6%43%
CPAYCorpay, Inc.$26B24.0×13.8×73.3%22.7%30%
FTVFortive Corporation$17B32.2×18.5×63.2%12.4%9%
GDDYGoDaddy Inc.$13B14.8×11.4×63.8%17.8%661%
JJacobs Solutions Inc.$16B47.2×20.9×22.1%2.4%10%
LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc.$16B11.4×9.3×17.4%7.9%28%
TRMBTrimble Inc.$13B—55.8×68.4%-2.8%-2%
UMCUnited Microelectronics Corporation$60B23.0×12.0×30.6%33.3%21%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 30.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 40.9×FY25 26.1×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$428$156.95 · +173%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$471$156.95 · +200%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $186.40
52-week range$124 – $266
Analyst targets$120 – $206
Standard DCF$428 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $156.95
Levered DCF$471 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $156.95
At own 5y-median P/E (33×)$372
At 5y P/E range (25–40×)$278 – $451
At sector P/E (53×)$595

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.