Orin
ITTNYSE·Industrial - Machinery

ITT Inc. ITT

Market cap $18.8BP/E 41.8× trailingGross margin 34.6%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$210.12
−3.85 (−1.80%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $166.96 – $230.32
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 29 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

ITT posted record Q2 2026 results with 51% revenue growth and 18% adjusted EPS growth, raising full-year guidance across organic revenue, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow — but FY2025 fundamentals show net income declining 5.9% YoY and EPS falling 3.0% even as revenue grew 8.5%, suggesting acquisition-related dilution to earnings quality. At 39.6x trailing P/E — a 21.3% premium to the peer median of 32.7x — and 23.9x EV/EBITDA versus a 19.8x peer median, the valuation already embeds much of the improved outlook.

The stock has cooled from its post-earnings pop to $202.99 with RSI at 45.2 and a bearish MACD histogram of -1.66, while smart money sits slightly negative at -0.0517 as of Q2 2026 with fund count declining from 59 to 53. Strong operational trajectory is offset by a full multiple and mixed flow signals.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation premium. P/E of 39.6x is 21.3% above the peer median of 32.7x and EV/EBITDA of 23.9x is 21.0% above the 19.8x median, leaving little room for execution missteps.
  • Earnings quality. FY2025 net income fell 5.9% YoY and EPS declined 3.0% despite 8.5% revenue growth, with total debt rising from $757M in 2024 to $927M in 2025, likely reflecting acquisition-related charges and leverage.
  • Deteriorating technicals and flows. Stock trades below its 50-day MA of $200.41 with a bearish MACD histogram of -1.66; smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.0517 as of Q2 2026 with fund count dropping from 59 to 53 quarter-over-quarter.
  • Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net value is -$34.8M despite a slightly positive net share count of 24,383, indicating disposition value outweighs acquisitions.

What would change my mind

Valuation re-rating. P/E compresses toward peer median (~33x) on sustained margin expansion and debt reduction, improving risk/rewardbullish
Q3 2026 earnings and guidance. Q3 results show continued organic growth acceleration and further upward revision to full-year adjusted EPS and FCF guidancebullish
Margin compression. Operating margin fails to recover from the FY2025 decline to 17.4% (from 18.6% in FY2024), confirming acquisition integration costs are structuralbearish
Smart money outflow acceleration. 13F filings for Q3 2026 show further decline in fund count and a more negative smart money score below -0.10bearish

Where this comes from: MarketBeat news, 2026-08-08 · FMP FY2025 fundamentals and derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-28. Orin's read on ITT; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Fmr$953.7M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$841.2M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$799.9M0.0% of fund
Capital World Investors$751.3M0.1% of fund
Select Equity Group, L.P$685.5M3.4% of fund
Alliancebernstein L.P$679.7M0.2% of fund

80 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 107 Form 4 filings, net −$34.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 13 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E41.8×—44.5×
EV/EBITDA25.0×——
P/S4.04×——
P/B4.0×——
What the price assumes

15.3%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

23 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$251

$229 – $273 · +19% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 16 buy or overweight
  • 7 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 32.5× of 9 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
ITTITT Inc.$19B41.8×25.0×34.6%8.9%10%
CRCrane Company$12B35.3×22.5×41.7%13.0%16%
DCIDonaldson Company, Inc.$10B22.1×17.9×34.6%11.7%28%
GGGGraco Inc.$12B23.9×16.4×52.6%23.5%20%
GNRCGenerac Holdings Inc.$12B44.9×23.0×39.5%5.8%10%
IEXIDEX Corporation$17B32.8×20.0×44.7%14.5%13%
JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.$22B32.5×13.8×16.3%5.3%19%
LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.$15B26.4×17.4×36.0%12.4%37%
NDSNNordson Corporation$18B32.6×20.8×55.3%18.6%18%
WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.$12B30.9×19.1×48.8%14.3%19%

The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 28.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 20.0×FY25 28.2×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $210.12
52-week range$167 – $230
Analyst targets$229 – $273
At sector P/E (45×)$228

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.