ITT Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
ITT's SPX FLOW acquisition is fueling dramatic top-line expansion — Q2 2026 revenue surged 51.5% YoY to $1.47B — with management citing synergies outpacing plan and surging defense demand, while CEO Luca Savi's direct $1.0M stock purchase on August 31, 2026 signals insider confidence.
Yet reported quarterly EPS fell from $1.64 in Q4 2025 to $0.95 in Q2 2026 as integration costs compressed FY2025 operating margin to 17.4% from 18.6%, and at 39.9x trailing P/E — a 22.7% premium to the peer median of 32.6x — the market has already priced in much of the acquisition upside. The stock sits below its 50-day MA of $204.78 with smart money slightly negative at -0.057 as of Q2 2026 and fund count declining from 59 to 53, warranting patience until reported earnings converge with adjusted results as integration costs fade.
What could go wrong
- Integration cost persistence. The gap between adjusted EPS ($2.08 latest surprise) and reported quarterly EPS ($0.95 in Q2 2026) suggests substantial one-time charges; if integration costs linger, earnings quality remains impaired.
- Valuation premium vulnerability. At 39.9x P/E and 24.1x EV/EBITDA — 22.7% and 24.8% above peer medians respectively — any guidance miss or synergy shortfall could trigger multiple compression.
- Institutional outflows. Smart money score at -0.057 as of Q2 2026 with fund count falling from 59 to 53, and Amundi cutting its stake by 56.4%, signal waning institutional conviction.
- Margin compression. FY2025 operating margin declined to 17.4% from 18.6% despite gross margin expansion to 35.4%, indicating acquisition-related operating cost pressure that could persist.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 FY26 results · insider trades, 31 Aug · Q4 FY25 and Q2 FY26 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on ITT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 10.0% over twelve months, from $176.63 on 27 Oct 2025 to $194.37 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $221.69 on 14 Apr 2026; the last close is 12.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.5M, on 9 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All ITT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| FMR | $953.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $841.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $799.9M | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $751.3M | 0.1% |
| Select Equity Group | $685.5M | 3.4% |
| AllianceBernstein | $679.7M | 0.2% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $647.4M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $555.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $334.2M | 0.0% |
82 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 103 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$25.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 13 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ITT
Orin answers questions about ITT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 40.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.9×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 40.2×above usual | 23.9× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 3.38×above usual | 3.18× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.8×above usual | 14.8× | — |
| P/B | 3.7×below usual | 3.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $252 (from $229 to $273) — 30% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$252
$229 – $273 · +30% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 40.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 32.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITTITT Inc. | $18B | 40.2× | 19.8× | 35.5% | 8.1% | 9% |
| FLSFlowserve Corporation | $9B | 24.6× | 14.5× | 35.1% | 8.0% | 17% |
| GHMGraham Corporation | $846M | 61.1× | 33.8× | 25.0% | 5.0% | 8% |
| HLIOHelios Technologies, Inc. | $2B | 25.1× | 12.3× | 32.7% | 8.7% | 8% |
| IEXIDEX Corporation | $17B | 32.3× | 19.3× | 44.9% | 14.6% | 13% |
| NPOEnPro Industries, Inc. | $6B | 136× | 32.4× | 42.8% | 3.6% | 3% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 40.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now40.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $108 a share — 45% below the $194.06 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $108 | 45% below $194.06 |
| Levered | $84 | 57% below $194.06 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.