Invesco Ltd.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Invesco remains a hold.
H1 2026 shows a credible operational recovery — Q2 2026 revenue of $1.83B grew 20.5% YoY with $0.76 diluted EPS, and Q1 2026 added $0.51 EPS — but FY2025's full-year operating loss of $696M and net loss of $282M demonstrate that earnings stability has not been proven across a full cycle. The balance sheet deteriorated meaningfully: total debt rose to $9.78B at FY2025 from $7.55B in FY2024 while stockholders' equity fell to $12.23B from $14.56B, and insiders remain net sellers with -$485,732 shares and -$13.3M in net value over 24 months including September 2026 dispositions by the CFO and multiple senior managing directors. With AUM declining 0.9% month-over-month to $2,537.8B as of September 30, 2026, and the stock trading below its 50-day MA at $29.51 with an RSI of 35.9, the turnaround story is real but unproven.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet deterioration. Total debt increased to $9.78B at FY2025 from $7.55B in FY2024 while stockholders' equity declined to $12.23B from $14.56B, raising leverage risk if revenue growth stalls.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 485,732 shares worth $13.3M, with zero open-market acquisitions and September 2026 sales by the CFO and multiple senior managing directors.
- AUM outflows. September 30, 2026 AUM of $2,537.8B declined 0.9% versus prior month-end, signaling potential fee-revenue pressure ahead.
- Earnings volatility. FY2025 produced a $696M operating loss and -$1.60 diluted EPS, driven largely by a Q4 2025 operating loss of $1.46B, showing GAAP results remain lumpy and unpredictable.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · insider trades. Orin's read on IVZ; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 21.2% over twelve months, from $23.46 on 27 Oct 2025 to $28.43 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $33.31 on 27 Aug 2026; the last close is 14.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 12.1M, on 4 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All IVZ filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $741.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $487.1M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $443.2M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $414.0M | 0.1% |
| AQR Capital Management | $332.6M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $329.4M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $294.2M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $280.2M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $245.7M | 0.0% |
83 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 135 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$15.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about IVZ
Orin answers questions about IVZ from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 1.76× its yearly sales — above its usual level (1.42×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 12.0× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 1.76×above usual | 1.42× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | not meaningful | — | — |
| P/B | 1.0×above usual | 0.6× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: not meaningful — over the last 12 months the business itself lost money before depreciation (operating income plus depreciation is below zero); a profit from one-off gains does not count.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $33.17 (from $30 to $36) — 17% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$33.17
$30 – $36 · +17% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 13.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVZInvesco Ltd. | $13B | lost money | n/m | 74.6% | −1.1% | −1% |
| AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc. | $44B | 11.7× | 7.2× | 50.2% | 19.9% | 62% |
| BENFranklin Resources, Inc. | $16B | 20.8× | 16.5× | 67.6% | 9.6% | 7% |
| PFGPrincipal Financial Group, Inc. | $24B | 15.9× | 8.5× | n/a | 9.9% | 13% |
| TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22B | 10.4× | 6.2× | 70.7% | 29.3% | 20% |
- PFG: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- IVZ: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $17 a share — 42% below the $28.86 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $17 | 42% below $28.86 |
| Levered | $53 | 85% above $28.86 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.