Invesco Ltd. IVZ
Invesco remains a hold as FY2025 results — a $696M operating loss and -$1.60 diluted EPS despite $6.38B in revenue and $1.44B in free cash flow — underscore a recurring pattern of alternating profitable and loss-making years that demands evidence of sustained earnings recovery before turning constructive. The stock has rallied to $32.21, above both the 50-day ($29.34) and 200-day ($26.70) moving averages with RSI at 62.7, pricing in operational improvement not yet visible in GAAP profitability.
Balance sheet deterioration is a key concern: total debt climbed to $10.1B from $7.5B in FY2024 while stockholders' equity eroded to $12.2B from $14.6B, and insider net selling of -$20.9M over 24 months — including July 2026 dispositions by the CEO and CFO — tempers enthusiasm despite a modestly positive smart-money score of 0.0123 as of Q2 2026.
What could go wrong
- Earnings volatility persists. FY2025 marked a return to losses (-$282M net income, -10.9% operating margin) after FY2024's $775M profit, repeating the FY2023 loss pattern; without sustained profitability the stock's run-up to $32.21 is unsupported by fundamentals.
- Leverage rising. Total debt increased to $10.1B in FY2025 from $7.5B in FY2024 while equity fell to $12.2B from $14.6B, weakening the balance sheet and raising interest burden risk on an asset-manager franchise.
- Insider selling pressure. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold $20.9M in value across 52 dispositions vs 50 acquisitions, with the CEO and CFO both disposing shares in July 2026 at $27.01.
- Smart-money flows weakening. The smart-money score declined from 0.021 at end-2025 to 0.0123 as of Q2 2026, and fund count fell from 58 to 55 quarter-over-quarter, suggesting reduced institutional conviction.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · Technical data as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on IVZ; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All IVZ filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $741.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $487.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $443.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Millennium Management | $414.0M | 0.1% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $332.6M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $329.4M | 0.0% of fund |
80 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 130 Form 4 filings, net −$29.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about IVZ
Orin answers questions about IVZ from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6× | 11.3× | — |
| P/S | 1.97× | 1.42× | — |
| P/B | 1.1× | 0.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.67σ from its own mean).
-2.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$33
$28 – $39 · +7% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVZInvesco Ltd. | $14B | — | 9.6× | 67.4% | -0.9% | -1% |
| AIZAssurant, Inc. | $13B | 12.3× | 7.9× | 78.1% | 7.9% | 18% |
| BENFranklin Resources, Inc. | $17B | 21.7× | 17.7× | 67.6% | 9.6% | 7% |
| GLGlobe Life Inc. | $13B | 11.0× | 24.8× | 17.0% | 19.6% | 20% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $121 | $27.55 · +338% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $63 | $27.55 · +127% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.