Jacobs Solutions Inc. J
Jacobs Solutions remains a hold as the stock has extended its rally to $144.66—above both the 50-day ($130.87) and 200-day ($133.21) moving averages—pricing in an operating recovery that has not yet fully translated into bottom-line results. FY2025 operating income grew 24.7% to $864M on 4.6% revenue growth to $12.0B, yet net income collapsed 64% to $290M (EPS $2.38 vs. $6.32), leaving trailing PE at 50.4x—a 208% premium to the peer median of 16.4x—even as PS at 1.2x trades at a 66% discount, signaling the market questions the earnings power.
The record backlog, raised guidance for a third consecutive quarter, and AI infrastructure exposure are credible tailwinds, but President Hill Patrick's sale of 17,201 shares at $143–145 in August tempers the bullish signal from CEO Pragada's May purchase at $111.09, and smart money scores have deteriorated from +0.041 to -0.0003 over three quarters.
What could go wrong
- Earnings distortion unresolved. FY2025 net income fell 64% to $290M despite 24.7% operating income growth; if the gap reflects structural rather than one-time items, the 50x PE is unjustified.
- Valuation stretched on trailing earnings. PE of 50.4x is a 208% premium to the peer median of 16.4x and EV/EBITDA of 22.1x is a 55% premium, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Insider selling at highs. President Hill Patrick sold 17,201 shares at $143–145 on Aug 7, 2026, partially offsetting CEO Pragada's purchase at $111.09 in May.
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score declined from +0.0412 (June 2025) to -0.0003 (March 2026), with the trend turning negative even as fund count rose.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP TTM · FMP TTM · peer_relative · insider transactions. Orin's read on J; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All J filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $972.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $931.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $598.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $425.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $418.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $400.3M | 0.0% of fund |
82 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 76 Form 4 filings, net $2.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about J
Orin answers questions about J from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 49.2× | 21.5× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.6× | 17.0× | — |
| P/S | 1.17× | 1.32× | — |
| P/B | 5.1× | 2.4× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.18σ from its own mean).
12.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$165
$153 – $174 · +17% against today's price
- 24 buy or overweight
- 14 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJacobs Solutions Inc. | $17B | 49.2× | 21.6× | 22.1% | 2.4% | 10% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc. | $26B | 23.7× | 13.7× | 73.3% | 22.7% | 30% |
| GDDYGoDaddy Inc. | $13B | 14.2× | 11.0× | 63.8% | 17.8% | 661% |
| GENGen Digital Inc. | $16B | 15.1× | 10.1× | 78.0% | 20.7% | 42% |
| ITGartner, Inc. | $12B | 16.0× | 10.3× | 68.9% | 12.0% | 401% |
| NTNXNutanix, Inc. | $19B | 12.5× | 48.9× | 86.8% | 52.8% | -396% |
| TRMBTrimble Inc. | $14B | — | 57.3× | 68.4% | -2.8% | -2% |
| TYLTyler Technologies, Inc. | $14B | 43.6× | 29.7× | 46.6% | 13.4% | 9% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 216.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $106 | $124.75 · −15% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $85 | $124.75 · −32% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.