JBG SMITH Properties
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
JBG SMITH Properties shows a genuinely mixed picture: revenue is inflecting positive for the first time in years with Q1 2026 up 5.7% YoY and Q2 2026 up 2.3% YoY, and BlackRock's $164M investment establishing a 19.2% stake alongside a credit facility extension to 2030 provides meaningful support.
However, gross profit remains negative at -$8.5M in Q2 2026 and -$72M for full-year 2025, stockholders' equity has eroded from $2.9B in 2021 to $1.16B in 2025 against $2.5B in debt, and the stock at $10.10 trades well below both its 50-day ($12.12) and 200-day ($14.65) moving averages with an RSI of 25.2 indicating severe oversold conditions but no reversal signal. The postponed Q2 2026 results and undisclosed matter involving 'multiple other parties' adds an unresolved overhang that prevents conviction in either direction.
What could go wrong
- Negative gross profit persists. Gross profit was -$72M in full-year 2025 and remained negative at -$11.3M in Q1 2026 and -$8.5M in Q2 2026, meaning the core portfolio is not covering direct operating costs.
- Balance sheet deterioration. Stockholders' equity fell from $2.9B in 2021 to $1.16B in 2025 while total debt held at $2.5B, and free cash flow has been negative every year since 2022 including -$49M in 2025.
- Undisclosed legal/regulatory matter. The company postponed Q2 2026 results and disclosed involvement alongside 'multiple other parties' in an unspecified matter, creating unquantifiable tail risk.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $10.10 is 17% below its 50-day MA of $12.12 and 31% below its 200-day MA of $14.65, with MACD histogram still negative, indicating sustained downtrend despite oversold RSI of 25.2.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q1–Q2 2026 results · FY21 and FY25 fundamentals · news, 29 Aug · news, 27 Aug. Orin's read on JBGS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 46.5% over twelve months, from $21.55 on 27 Oct 2025 to $11.53 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $21.55 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 46.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.0M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All JBGS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $164.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $90.4M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $57.8M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $53.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $38.2M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $25.9M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $21.3M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $14.5M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $12.6M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $11.8M | 0.0% |
43 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 113 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about JBGS
Orin answers questions about JBGS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 1.41× its yearly sales — below its usual level (2.96×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 27.1× | 42.4× |
| P/S | 1.41×below usual | 2.96× | — |
| P/B | 0.7×below usual | 0.8× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: one firm rated it in the last 18 months. The 12-month price targets on file average $12.50 (from $12 to $13) — 8% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$12.50
$12 – $13 · +8% against the last close
- 0 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.