Johnson Controls International plc JCI
JCI is a buy following the recent pullback to $139.25, trading near its 200-day MA of $134.36 with an RSI of 38.8 suggesting the sell-off is overdone. The fundamental story is accelerating: Q3 FY2026 revenue grew 9.3% YoY to $6.61B with gross margin expanding to 36.4% in FY2025, driven by record backlog and strong data-center thermal-management demand, while the PE of 24.1x sits at a 31% discount to the peer median of 35.1x.
Eight consecutive earnings beats — most recently $1.42 actual vs $1.30 estimated — underscore solid execution. The main concerns are real but appear cyclical: FCF declined to $965M in FY2025 from $1.6B and total debt rose to $11.19B, yet these seem tied to growth-related working capital and investment rather than structural deterioration.
What could go wrong
- FCF deterioration. Free cash flow fell to $965M in FY2025 from $1.6B in FY2024, with FCF margin compressing to 4.1% from 7.0%; if this does not reverse in FY2026 it signals a structural cash conversion problem.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt rose to $11.19B in FY2025 from $9.49B, pushing EV/EBITDA to 25.9x — a 22% premium to the peer median of 21.2x — which limits financial flexibility.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold $10.2M in shares across 93 dispositions vs 56 acquisitions, with recent sales by the CFO and segment presidents in August 2026.
- Smart money outflows. The smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.0148 as of Q2 2026, declining from a positive 0.0373 reading in Q3 2025, indicating institutional positioning has weakened.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q3 FY2026 (period ended 2026-06-30) · derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025 and FY2024. Orin's read on JCI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All JCI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $2.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| Invesco | $2.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
118 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 149 Form 4 filings, net −$10.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about JCI
Orin answers questions about JCI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.2× | 21.8× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.9× | 21.0× | — |
| P/S | 3.52× | 1.95× | — |
| P/B | 6.5× | 2.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.18σ from its own mean).
28.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$171
$144 – $190 · +15% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCIJohnson Controls International plc | $88B | 25.2× | 26.9× | 36.7% | 14.3% | 27% |
| CARRCarrier Global Corporation | $45B | 37.8× | 20.5× | 24.3% | 5.5% | 9% |
| CTASCintas Corporation | $79B | 38.5× | 27.6× | 51.0% | 17.8% | 42% |
| EMREmerson Electric Co. | $87B | 34.0× | 19.3× | 53.2% | 13.8% | 13% |
| ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $78B | 24.6× | 18.8× | 44.2% | 19.4% | 102% |
| PWRQuanta Services, Inc. | $97B | 72.8× | 33.9× | 14.4% | 4.1% | 15% |
| TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated | $62B | 33.5× | 18.6× | 59.6% | 21.3% | -21% |
| TTTrane Technologies plc | $96B | 33.1× | 23.0× | 35.4% | 13.3% | 34% |
| VRTVertiv Holdings Co | $94B | 54.3× | 37.6× | 37.5% | 15.1% | 42% |
| WMWaste Management, Inc. | $83B | 29.3× | 14.1× | 35.0% | 11.1% | 29% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 25.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.