Johnson Controls International plc
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
JCI remains a hold after rallying from ~$139 to $156 since the prior buy call, with RSI at 67.9 signaling stretched near-term momentum.
The fundamental story is genuinely improving — quarterly revenue growth accelerated from 6.8% in Q1 FY2026 to 9.3% in Q3 FY2026, and the company has beaten EPS estimates for eight consecutive quarters including $1.42 actual vs $1.30 estimated most recently. However, the PE discount to peers (-26.5% vs the 35.2x median) is partially offset by an EV/EBITDA of 27.6x that trades at a 34% premium to the peer median, while FY2025 free cash flow fell to $965M from $1.6B in FY2024 and total debt rose to $11.19B, warranting patience before adding exposure at current levels.
What could go wrong
- FCF deterioration. Free cash flow declined from $1.775B in FY2023 to $965M in FY2025 while total debt rose from $8.824B to $11.19B, raising questions about capital efficiency and leverage.
- Valuation stretch on EV/EBITDA. Despite a PE discount to peers, EV/EBITDA of 27.6x sits 34% above the peer median of 20.6x, suggesting the stock may be pricing in much of the growth improvement.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net value is -$10.2M with 93 dispositions vs 56 acquisitions, and recent August 2026 transactions were predominantly open-market sales.
- Technical overbought. RSI of 67.9 with the stock at $156.24, well above the 50-day MA of $145.99 and 200-day MA of $137.63, increases near-term pullback risk.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · earnings vs estimates, 29 Jul · peer comparison · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on JCI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 37.9% over twelve months, from $113.05 on 27 Oct 2025 to $155.88 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $158.76 on 6 Oct 2026; the last close is 1.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 19.0M, on 6 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All JCI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $7.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.8B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $2.6B | 0.2% |
| Invesco | $2.6B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Franklin Resources | $1.3B | 0.3% |
| Norges Bank | $1.2B | 0.1% |
121 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 149 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$40.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 12 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about JCI
Orin answers questions about JCI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 33.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 29.5×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.2×above usual | 29.5× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 3.68×above usual | 1.95× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.0×above usual | 21.0× | — |
| P/B | 7.0×above usual | 2.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $172 (from $144 to $190) — 10% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$172
$144 – $190 · +10% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 33.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 33.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCIJohnson Controls International plc | $94B | 33.2× | 25.0× | 37.1% | 11.1% | 21% |
| ALLEAllegion plc | $15B | 22.4× | 15.6× | 45.1% | 15.7% | 33% |
| CARRCarrier Global Corporation | $48B | 39.8× | 19.2× | 24.3% | 5.5% | 9% |
| EMREmerson Electric Co. | $91B | 33.9× | 18.9× | 53.4% | 14.1% | 13% |
| HONHoneywell International Inc. | $69B | 9.9× | 7.0× | 38.0% | 23.0% | 36% |
| LIILennox International Inc. | $13B | 16.8× | 13.0× | 33.1% | 14.6% | 65% |
| TTTrane Technologies plc | $101B | 34.7× | 24.1× | 35.4% | 13.3% | 34% |
| VRTVertiv Holdings Co | $80B | 46.1× | 31.7× | 38.0% | 15.1% | 42% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 33.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now33.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $29 a share — 80% below the $147.50 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $29 | 80% below $147.50 |
| Levered | $18 | 88% below $147.50 |
- The price has moved 6% since the models were computed; they have not been recomputed.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.