Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Jack Henry's fiscal 2026 results (ended 30 Jun) show durable quality — 5.1% revenue growth to $2.50B, 11.9% EPS growth to $6.98, a 27.8% FCF margin, and only $40M total debt — but the stock has rebounded from its prior oversold lows to $152.79 as of 19 Oct, with RSI now neutral at 51.7 and price still below both the 50-day ($156.24) and 200-day ($155.73) moving averages.
The P/E of 21.9 sits at a 297% premium to the peer median of 5.5, and Q4 FY26 revenue growth decelerated sharply to 2.9% YoY from 7–9% in prior quarters, tempering the bullish case. With four consecutive earnings beats and expanding margins offset by decelerating top-line growth and a rich relative valuation, the risk/reward is now balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Revenue deceleration. Q4 FY26 revenue growth slowed to 2.9% YoY from 7.3–8.7% in the prior three quarters, suggesting potential cooling in core banking demand.
- Premium valuation vs peers. P/E of 21.9 is 297% above the peer median of 5.5 and EV/EBITDA of 12.5 is 38% above the peer median of 9.0, leaving limited margin for error.
- Insider selling trend. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net disposed of 47,263 shares valued at $8.3M, with zero open-market acquisitions.
- Technical overhead resistance. Stock at $152.79 trades below both the 50-day MA ($156.24) and 200-day MA ($155.73), suggesting lingering bearish momentum despite a positive MACD histogram.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals, to 30 Jun · results, quarter to 30 Jun · peer comparison · technicals, 19 Oct. Orin's read on JKHY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 1.2% over twelve months, from $156.30 on 27 Oct 2025 to $158.25 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $192.60 on 14 Jan 2026; the last close is 17.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.2M, on 29 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All JKHY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $705.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $639.7M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $510.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $490.3M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $378.8M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $327.1M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $259.1M | 0.0% |
| Wells Fargo | $177.5M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $137.8M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $91.5M | 0.0% |
79 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 187 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$8.3M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about JKHY
Orin answers questions about JKHY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 31.2×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.7×below usual | 31.2× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 4.38×below usual | 5.54× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.9×below usual | 16.5× | — |
| P/B | 5.6×below usual | 6.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $187 (from $158 to $215) — 18% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$187
$158 – $215 · +18% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 3 companies it is compared to made a profit (FIS 4.4×, FISV 9.1×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc. | $11B | 22.7× | 12.9× | 43.6% | 19.8% | 23% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $15B | 4.4× | 7.5× | 35.8% | 26.8% | 22% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | $25B | 9.1× | 7.0× | 47.2% | 13.4% | 11% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | $25B | lost money | 10.9× | 61.5% | −11.4% | −6% |
- GPN: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $178 a share — 12% above the $159.08 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $178 | 12% above $159.08 |
| Levered | $248 | 56% above $159.08 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.