Johnson & Johnson JNJ
JNJ's FY2025 results show genuine fundamental improvement—revenue grew 6.05% to $94.193B and EPS recovered to $11.03 from $5.79 in FY2024—but total debt has climbed to $47.933B from $29.332B in FY2023, insiders remain net sellers at -$113.7M over 24 months, and the smart money score has declined from 0.4089 to 0.2734 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30. The stock at $268.04 trades roughly in line with peers (PE 30.99 vs peer median 31.80; EV/EBITDA 20.0 vs 20.92) but carries a bearish MACD crossover with the line below the signal.
Hold existing positions—the fundamental recovery and China's approval of JNJ's oral psoriasis pill support ownership—but rising leverage and waning institutional conviction argue against adding at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Debt accumulation. Total debt at $47.933B in FY2025 is up from $29.332B in FY2023, increasing balance sheet risk and limiting financial flexibility.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of -$113.7M over 24 months, including CEO Duato's August 2026 sales, signal caution from leadership.
- Declining institutional conviction. Smart money score dropped from 0.4089 in Q1 2026 to 0.2734 in Q2 2026, suggesting institutional positioning is softening.
- Competitive pressure. China's approval of JNJ's oral psoriasis pill intensifies competition with AbbVie and Bristol Myers Squibb in a key market.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals · derived_metrics · FMP fundamentals · insider summary. Orin's read on JNJ; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All JNJ filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $39.9B | 0.9% of fund |
| State Street | $34.0B | 1.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $16.3B | 0.7% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $15.1B | 0.8% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $15.0B | 0.8% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $11.4B | 0.6% of fund |
194 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 291 Form 4 filings, net −$119.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about JNJ
Orin answers questions about JNJ from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 31.1× | 21.6× | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.1× | 17.3× | — |
| P/S | 6.62× | 5.35× | — |
| P/B | 7.7× | 6.0× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.08σ from its own mean).
14.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $19.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$287
$255 – $320 · +7% against today's price
- 21 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | $649B | 31.1× | 20.1× | 67.9% | 21.5% | 26% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | $469B | 74.7× | 25.1× | 71.5% | 9.8% | -136% |
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | $219B | 25.0× | 15.9× | 72.7% | 22.9% | 89% |
| GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | $188B | — | 331.4× | 79.6% | -10.6% | -16% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $366B | 117.5× | 29.8× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $161B | 37.2× | 17.6× | 71.3% | 6.8% | 5% |
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $337B | 23.9× | 14.8× | 22.5% | 3.1% | 15% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 16.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $323 | $238.78 · +35% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $284 | $238.78 · +19% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.