JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM
JPMorgan's Q2 2026 results were exceptional — revenue of $82.5B grew 17.9% YoY with EPS of $7.57 beating estimates by 35.8% — and smart money has improved to a score of 0.2362 as of June 2026 from near-zero a year earlier, but the stock still trades at 14.5x P/E and 3.04x P/S, a 14% and 58% premium to peer medians respectively, despite FY2025 net income declining 2.4% YoY to $57.0B and total debt surging 25% to $942.4B. The pullback to $337.53 with RSI at 33.4 (oversold) improves the near-term risk/reward versus the prior hold at ~$360, and the $20B QIA partnership adds a fee-revenue catalyst, but insiders have net sold $370.7M over 24 months and FY2025 operating margin compressed to 25.95% from 27.73%, keeping the setup mixed rather than compelling for new capital.
What could go wrong
- Credit cycle deterioration. August card delinquencies and charge-offs rose sequentially across major U.S. issuers; while below year-ago levels, further deterioration could pressure JPM's consumer portfolio and loan loss provisions.
- Premium valuation vs peers. P/E of 14.5x sits 14.3% above the peer median of 12.7x and P/S of 3.04x is 58.3% above the peer median of 1.92x, limiting multiple expansion upside if growth disappoints.
- Insider selling pressure. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 77,520 shares worth $370.7M across 125 dispositions versus 94 acquisitions, with recent sales by the Head of HR and General Counsel.
- AI disruption to payments. Recent news highlights concern that AI shopping agents like Meta's Muse could disrupt traditional payment and financial companies, pressuring CCB and payments revenue.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q2 2026 · earnings_surprises · peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024. Orin's read on JPM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All JPM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $52.9B | 1.1% of fund |
| State Street | $41.0B | 1.2% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $22.8B | 1.5% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $22.0B | 1.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $21.5B | 1.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $20.1B | 1.1% of fund |
219 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 219 Form 4 filings, net −$370.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about JPM
Orin answers questions about JPM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.5× | 10.6× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.7× | 7.6× | — |
| P/S | 3.04× | 2.59× | — |
| P/B | 2.5× | 1.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.33σ from its own mean).
-3.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $100.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$374
$305 – $420 · +11% against today's price
- 32 buy or overweight
- 27 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co. | $904B | 14.5× | 19.7× | 62.6% | 21.9% | 18% |
| BACBank of America Corporation | $397B | 12.7× | 24.1× | 59.3% | 17.2% | 11% |
| CCitigroup Inc. | $226B | 14.0× | 23.1× | 46.6% | 10.2% | 8% |
| WFCWells Fargo & Company | $248B | 11.7× | 15.2× | 64.5% | 17.5% | 13% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $740 | $311.93 · +137% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $923 | $311.93 · +196% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.