Kaiser Aluminum Corporation KALU
Kaiser Aluminum's earnings inflection is genuine — FY2025 operating income more than doubled to $190.7M from $87.7M and EPS rose to $6.77 from $2.87 — but the stock has already rallied roughly 160% from its 52-week low of $71.44 to $185.50, leaving limited near-term upside before hitting the $195.96 52-week high. At 13.0x PE and 8.4x EV/EBITDA the valuation is reasonable, yet gross profit actually fell from $332.9M to $319.9M despite 11.5% revenue growth, signaling cost pressure that could constrain further margin expansion.
With negative free cash flow of -$25.5M and $1.12B total debt against $826M equity, the balance sheet offers little cushion if aerospace or automotive demand softens. The constructive technical setup (price above both the 50-day MA of $174.5 and 200-day MA of $141.7, positive MACD histogram) and rising institutional interest (fund count up from 32 to 46 over four quarters as of 2026-06-30) support the trend, but the risk/reward after such a run favors patience over chasing.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Gross profit declined from $332.9M in FY2024 to $319.9M in FY2025 despite revenue rising from $3.02B to $3.37B, indicating input cost or mix pressure that could limit operating leverage going forward.
- Persistent negative free cash flow. FCF has been negative for three of the last five years, including -$25.5M in FY2025 and -$13.7M in FY2024, with capex of $136.9M outpacing operating cash flow of $111.4M.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $1.12B against stockholders' equity of $826M as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility if end-market demand weakens.
- Extended technical run. Stock at $185.50 is near its 52-week high of $195.96 and well above the 200-day MA of $141.7, increasing vulnerability to a pullback on any negative catalyst.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2024 vs FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 · Technicals as of 2026-08-17; GuruFocus news article 2026-08-06. Orin's read on KALU; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All KALU filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $276.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $257.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $138.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Nomura Asset Management International | $132.9M | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $92.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $53.3M | 0.0% of fund |
58 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 92 Form 4 filings, net −$25.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KALU
Orin answers questions about KALU from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.2× | — | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.62× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.7× | — | — |
What Wall Street published
$176
$160 – $184 · +12% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KALUKaiser Aluminum Corporation | $3B | 11.2× | 7.6× | 11.5% | 5.5% | 26% |
| HUNHuntsman Corporation | $2B | — | 13.3× | 13.5% | -2.9% | -6% |
| IPXIperionX Limited | $663M | — | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | -35% |
| USARUSA Rare Earth Inc | $2B | — | — | -54.1% | -2159.3% | -23% |
| WSWorthington Steel, Inc. | $2B | 99.2× | 9.2× | 11.7% | 0.5% | 2% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 88.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.