Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Kaiser Aluminum is in a sharp earnings inflection — Q2 2026 EPS of $5.72 versus $1.41 in Q2 2025 and Q1 2026 EPS of $3.71 versus $2.87 for all of FY2024 signal materially improved operating leverage, with Q2 2026 revenue of $1.26B against $823.1M a year earlier.
At a PE of 10.56x and EV/EBITDA of 7.24x the stock screens cheap relative to its own earnings trajectory, and the pullback to $147.25 — below the 50-day MA of $158.85 but above the 200-day MA of $153.18 — plus a $166.75 analyst average price target and Zacks Strong Buy ranking create an attractive risk/reward entry. Earnings surprises have been large and consistent ($5.53 actual versus $2.66 estimated in Q2; $3.74 versus $1.96 in Q1), reinforcing the credibility of the forward setup.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and negative FCF. Total debt of $1.12B against stockholders' equity of $826.1M and FY2025 free cash flow of -$25.5M leave limited cushion if end-demand softens.
- Thin gross margin. FY2025 gross margin of 9.5% means small swings in input costs or pricing can materially compress earnings.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 106,591 shares for $16.7M, though recent June 2026 transactions were acquisitions.
- Price below 50-day MA. Trading at $147.25 versus the 50-day MA of $158.85 signals near-term momentum weakness that could deepen before reversing.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · peer comparison · technicals, 16 Oct · news, 16 Oct. Orin's read on KALU; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 24.9% over twelve months, from $93.08 on 27 Oct 2025 to $116.25 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $195.63 on 30 Jun 2026; the last close is 40.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.3M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All KALU filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $561.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $276.5M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $257.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $138.3M | 0.0% |
| Nomura Asset Management International | $132.9M | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $92.3M | 0.0% |
| Franklin Resources | $53.3M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $50.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $50.1M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $44.5M | 0.0% |
59 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 91 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$16.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KALU
Orin answers questions about KALU from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 8.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 3 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 24.1×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NASDAQ is at 26.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7×below usual | 24.1× | 26.4× |
| P/S | 0.42×above usual | 0.37× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1×below usual | 10.1× | — |
| P/B | 1.9×near usual | 1.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $148 (from $127 to $160) — 27% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$148
$127 – $160 · +27% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 8.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 3 companies it is compared to made a profit (CENX 3.3×, MLI 13.8×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KALUKaiser Aluminum Corporation | $2B | 8.7× | 6.1× | 10.7% | 4.8% | 24% |
| APAmpco-Pittsburgh Corp. | $171M | lost money | — | 15.1% | −13.8% | −153% |
| CENXCentury Aluminum Company | $3B | 3.3× | 2.8× | 24.7% | 29.7% | 70% |
| MLIMueller Industries, Inc. | $12B | 13.8× | 8.7× | 26.5% | 17.3% | 27% |
- AP: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 8.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now8.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 26.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now26.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.