Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. KD
Kyndryl's operational turnaround is genuine—gross margin expanded from 11.29% in FY2022 to 21.79% in FY2026, operating income reached $635M, and free cash flow turned positive at $340M—but revenue growth is essentially flat at 0.23% YoY and EPS declined from $1.05 to $0.85, while total debt increased from $3.956B to $4.956B. The stock trades at a PE of 8.33x versus a peer median of 14.60x and EV/EBITDA of 2.43x versus 8.52x, yet the steep discount reflects stagnant top-line growth, a Q1 revenue decline of 3%, and a weak technical picture with the stock at $12.38 versus a 200-day MA of $16.97.
Hold until revenue growth reaccelerates or the debt trajectory stabilizes; the AI-led modernization narrative and recent Healthcare IT Leaders acquisition are promising but unproven at scale.
What could go wrong
- Revenue stagnation persists. Revenue has declined from $18.657B in FY2022 to $15.092B in FY2026, and Q1 revenue fell 3% YoY; if the AI/modernization pivot fails to drive growth, the turnaround thesis loses its key catalyst.
- Leverage deterioration. Total debt rose from $3.956B in FY2025 to $4.956B in FY2026 against equity of just $1.175B, increasing financial fragility if interest rates remain elevated or cash flow weakens.
- EPS erosion despite margin gains. EPS declined from $1.05 to $0.85 YoY even as operating margin improved from 3.67% to 4.21%, suggesting higher interest expense or tax burden is offsetting operational progress.
- Technical breakdown. The stock at $12.38 trades well below its 200-day MA of $16.97 with a bearish MACD histogram of -0.21, and smart money score is near-zero at 0.0008 as of Q2 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2022 and FY2026 · fundamentals FY2026 · fundamentals FY2026 · derived_metrics FY2026. Orin's read on KD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All KD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $188.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $160.1M | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $115.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $115.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| D. E. Shaw & | $100.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $88.1M | 0.0% of fund |
72 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 154 Form 4 filings, net −$57.5M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KD
Orin answers questions about KD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.4× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.10× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.5× | — | — |
-5.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$15
$13 – $16 · +23% against today's price
- 1 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDKyndryl Holdings, Inc. | $3B | 7.9× | 2.4× | 21.9% | 1.3% | 29% |
| CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc. | $6B | 14.1× | 9.7× | 52.8% | 21.0% | 20% |
| EPAMEPAM Systems, Inc. | $6B | 14.4× | 7.2× | 28.3% | 7.2% | 11% |
| INGMIngram Micro Holding Corporation | $6B | 14.3× | 7.3× | 6.6% | 0.8% | 10% |
| OLEDUniversal Display Corporation | $3B | 17.7× | 12.7× | 75.3% | 32.2% | 11% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 45.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.