Orin
KDNYSE·Information Technology Services

Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. KD

Market cap $2.6BP/E 7.9× trailingGross margin 21.9%Reports Tue 3 Nov, before the open
$11.92
+0.18 (+1.52%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $10.10 – $30.99
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 21 Aug · take v3. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Kyndryl's operational turnaround is genuine—gross margin expanded from 11.29% in FY2022 to 21.79% in FY2026, operating income reached $635M, and free cash flow turned positive at $340M—but revenue growth is essentially flat at 0.23% YoY and EPS declined from $1.05 to $0.85, while total debt increased from $3.956B to $4.956B. The stock trades at a PE of 8.33x versus a peer median of 14.60x and EV/EBITDA of 2.43x versus 8.52x, yet the steep discount reflects stagnant top-line growth, a Q1 revenue decline of 3%, and a weak technical picture with the stock at $12.38 versus a 200-day MA of $16.97.

Hold until revenue growth reaccelerates or the debt trajectory stabilizes; the AI-led modernization narrative and recent Healthcare IT Leaders acquisition are promising but unproven at scale.

What could go wrong

  • Revenue stagnation persists. Revenue has declined from $18.657B in FY2022 to $15.092B in FY2026, and Q1 revenue fell 3% YoY; if the AI/modernization pivot fails to drive growth, the turnaround thesis loses its key catalyst.
  • Leverage deterioration. Total debt rose from $3.956B in FY2025 to $4.956B in FY2026 against equity of just $1.175B, increasing financial fragility if interest rates remain elevated or cash flow weakens.
  • EPS erosion despite margin gains. EPS declined from $1.05 to $0.85 YoY even as operating margin improved from 3.67% to 4.21%, suggesting higher interest expense or tax burden is offsetting operational progress.
  • Technical breakdown. The stock at $12.38 trades well below its 200-day MA of $16.97 with a bearish MACD histogram of -0.21, and smart money score is near-zero at 0.0008 as of Q2 2026.

What would change my mind

Revenue growth turns positive. Quarterly revenue grows YoY on a constant-currency basis, confirming the AI-led modernization and hyperscaler partnerships are translating into new business.bullish
Debt reduction. Total debt declines meaningfully from the $4.956B FY2026 level, indicating free cash flow is being directed toward deleveraging rather than further acquisitions.bullish
Further revenue decline. Quarterly revenue continues to contract beyond the 3% Q1 decline, signaling the turnaround is stalling and the addressable market is shrinking.bearish
Margin compression. Gross margin falls below the 21.79% FY2026 level, indicating competitive pricing pressure or cost inflation is eroding the operational improvements.bearish

Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2022 and FY2026 · fundamentals FY2026 · fundamentals FY2026 · derived_metrics FY2026. Orin's read on KD; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$188.7M0.0% of fund
Aqr Capital Management$160.1M0.1% of fund
Fmr$115.4M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$115.3M0.0% of fund
D. E. Shaw &$100.2M0.0% of fund
State Street$88.1M0.0% of fund

72 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 154 Form 4 filings, net −$57.5M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E7.9×—53.3×
EV/EBITDA2.4×——
P/S0.10×——
P/B2.5×——
What the price assumes

-5.8%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

7 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$15

$13 – $16 · +23% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 1 buy or overweight
  • 5 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 14.4× of 4 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
KDKyndryl Holdings, Inc.$3B7.9×2.4×21.9%1.3%29%
CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc.$6B14.1×9.7×52.8%21.0%20%
EPAMEPAM Systems, Inc.$6B14.4×7.2×28.3%7.2%11%
INGMIngram Micro Holding Corporation$6B14.3×7.3×6.6%0.8%10%
OLEDUniversal Display Corporation$3B17.7×12.7×75.3%32.2%11%

The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 45.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY25 28.8×FY26 15.1×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $11.92
52-week range$10 – $31
Analyst targets$13 – $16
At sector P/E (53×)$79

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.