Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
KDP remains a hold as the JDE Peet's integration is driving explosive top-line growth—Q2 2026 revenue surged 75.6% YoY to $7.3B—but margins are severely compressed, with operating income collapsing to $669M and EPS at just $0.044 versus $0.40 a year earlier.
The stock has rallied sharply to $34.46, trading above both its 50-day ($31.63) and 200-day ($29.67) moving averages with an overbought RSI of 68.1, and at a 23.5% PE premium to the peer median (34.8x vs 28.2x). The planned 2027 split and $400M in coffee cost synergies are credible catalysts, but until margins demonstrably recover post-integration, the current price already discounts much of the upside.
What could go wrong
- Persistent margin compression from JDE Peet's integration. Q2 2026 operating income fell to $669M on $7.3B revenue despite the 75.6% YoY revenue surge, and EPS collapsed to $0.044 from $0.40 a year earlier, signaling integration costs are overwhelming near-term profitability.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt stood at $16.1B as of FY2025 against stockholders' equity of $25.5B, limiting financial flexibility if integration synergies ($400M targeted) are delayed.
- Overbought technicals and rich valuation. RSI at 68.1 and PE of 34.8x (23.5% above peer median of 28.2x) leave limited margin of safety if Q3 2026 earnings disappoint or synergy timelines slip.
- Deteriorating smart-money positioning. Smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.03 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun, down from +0.08 in Q1 2026 and +0.08 a year earlier, with insiders net sellers over 24 months (-1.17M shares, -$39.2M).
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · technicals, 19 Oct. Orin's read on KDP; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 19.3% over twelve months, from $29.23 on 27 Oct 2025 to $34.86 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $35.19 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 0.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 54.8M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All KDP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $5.6B | 0.2% |
| BlackRock | $4.7B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $3.9B | 0.5% |
| Harris Associates | $3.0B | 4.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.8B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.8B | 0.3% |
| Invesco | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
84 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 184 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$39.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KDP
Orin answers questions about KDP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 35.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 24.3×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NASDAQ is at 37.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 35.1×above usual | 24.3× | 37.9× |
| P/S | 2.36×below usual | 3.15× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.0×above usual | 16.2× | — |
| P/B | 1.9×near usual | 1.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $38.86 (from $37 to $42) — 11% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$38.86
$37 – $42 · +11% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 35.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 26.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $47B | 35.1× | 20.0× | 49.4% | 7.1% | 6% |
| KOThe Coca-Cola Company | $392B | 26.8× | 20.6× | 62.3% | 28.7% | 42% |
| MNSTMonster Beverage Corporation | $94B | 43.1× | 31.6× | 55.3% | 22.7% | 24% |
| PEPPepsiCo, Inc. | $182B | 16.8× | 11.6× | 54.2% | 11.1% | 51% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 35.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now35.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 37.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now37.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $48 a share — 37% above the $34.80 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $48 | 37% above $34.80 |
| Levered | $30 | 14% below $34.80 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.