KeyCorp
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
KeyCorp posts another earnings beat with Q3 2026 actual EPS of $0.51 versus $0.46 estimated, extending its streak of consecutive beats, but the 24.7% YoY revenue decline to $2.13B marks the second consecutive quarter of sharp top-line contraction following Q2's 26.4% drop.
The stock trades at 18.1x EV/EBITDA — 66.3% above the peer median of 10.9x — while sitting below both its 50-day MA of $21.22 and 200-day MA of $21.56 at $19.92, with net insider selling of 470,350 shares over 24 months and a low smart money score of 0.01 as of Q2 2026. FY2025's recovery to $1.52 EPS from a $0.32 loss on 23.6% revenue growth to $11.19B is encouraging, but deteriorating quarterly revenue and a rich relative valuation warrant patience until the top line stabilizes.
What could go wrong
- Revenue decline persists. Q2 and Q3 2026 revenue fell 26.4% and 24.7% YoY respectively; continued contraction would pressure earnings sustainability despite cost management.
- Credit costs escalate. Recent Zacks coverage flags rising credit provisions as a challenge for Q3; further deterioration in asset quality could reverse the earnings recovery.
- Valuation compression. EV/EBITDA of 18.1x sits 66.3% above the peer median of 10.9x; if revenue declines persist, the premium multiple could compress sharply.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider disposition of 470,350 shares over 24 months with no cluster buying signals limited internal conviction.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates, 20 Oct · Q3 2026 results · Q2 2026 results · peer comparison. Orin's read on KEY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 20.1% over twelve months, from $17.61 on 27 Oct 2025 to $21.15 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $23.99 on 16 Jul 2026; the last close is 11.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 40.2M, on 5 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All KEY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| FMR | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $588.3M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $481.5M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $413.7M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $342.2M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $315.9M | 0.0% |
96 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 269 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$9.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KEY
Orin answers questions about KEY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 11.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 11.2×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.6×near usual | 11.2× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 2.17×above usual | 2.02× | — |
| P/B | 1.3×above usual | 1.1× | — |
- P/S: for a bank, sales here are gross revenue — interest income plus non-interest revenue, before the interest it pays — so its P/S reads lower than it would on the net revenue in its filings.
- EV/EBITDA: not used for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $25.13 (from $23 to $28) — 19% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$25.13
$23 – $28 · +19% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 11.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 12.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEYKeyCorp | $23B | 11.6× | n/a | n/a | 20.1% | 11% |
| CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc. | $28B | 13.1× | n/a | n/a | 19.5% | 9% |
| FITBFifth Third Bancorp | $49B | 18.1× | n/a | n/a | 15.9% | 8% |
| HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | $32B | 12.2× | n/a | n/a | 16.3% | 8% |
| MTBM&T Bank Corporation | $32B | 11.5× | n/a | n/a | 22.6% | 11% |
| PNCThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | $91B | 12.1× | n/a | n/a | 22.1% | 13% |
| RFRegions Financial Corporation | $24B | 11.0× | n/a | n/a | 24.0% | 12% |
| TFCTruist Financial Corporation | $59B | 12.4× | n/a | n/a | 18.0% | 8% |
| USBU.S. Bancorp | $93B | 11.6× | n/a | n/a | 19.0% | 13% |
- KEY, CFG, FITB, HBAN, MTB, PNC, RF, TFC, USB: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- KEY, CFG, FITB, HBAN, MTB, PNC, RF, TFC, USB: EV/EBITDA is not used (n/a) for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 11.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now11.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.