KeyCorp KEY
KeyCorp's FY2025 turnaround is confirmed — revenue grew 23.6% to $11.2B, EPS swung from a $0.32 loss to $1.52, and total debt was cut from $14.2B to $11.0B — but the stock at $22.10 trades at an EV/EBITDA of 19.3x, a 49.5% premium to the peer median of 12.9x, suggesting the earnings recovery is largely reflected. While the P/E of 12.8x and P/S of 2.3x sit 8.3% and 14.7% below peer medians respectively, and aggressive buybacks exceeding $700M in H1 are accretive to per-share metrics, persistent insider net selling of $110M over 24 months and a bearish MACD crossover with RSI at 38.9 temper conviction.
Smart money has improved modestly (score rising from 0.0096 to 0.0239 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30), but the technical breakdown below the 50-day MA at $22.90 keeps this a wait-and-see situation.
What could go wrong
- EV/EBITDA premium unwinds. EV/EBITDA of 19.3x runs a 49.5% premium to the peer median of 12.9x; any disappointment in NII trajectory or fee growth could trigger multiple compression.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider selling of $110M over 24 months with 131 dispositions vs 129 acquisitions; the CRO sold 25,000 shares at $22.74 on July 22, 2026.
- Technical deterioration. Stock at $22.10 is below its 50-day MA of $22.90 with RSI at 38.9 and a bearish MACD histogram of -0.041, suggesting near-term downside momentum.
- Integration and capital allocation risk. Clearwater UK acquisition closed August 2026 and Series D preferred redemption scheduled September 15, 2026; execution risk on both fronts could pressure capital ratios.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2024 and FY2025 · peer_relative, as of 2026-08-19 · peer_relative, as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on KEY; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All KEY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $588.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $481.5M | 0.0% of fund |
93 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 261 Form 4 filings, net −$110.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KEY
Orin answers questions about KEY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.7× | — | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.3× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.09× | 2.02× | — |
| P/B | 1.1× | 1.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.52σ from its own mean).
-1.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$25
$23 – $28 · +24% against today's price
- 31 buy or overweight
- 18 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEYKeyCorp | $22B | 11.7× | 18.3× | 64.5% | 19.4% | 10% |
| CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc. | $27B | 14.0× | 9.8× | 72.4% | 18.5% | 8% |
| FITBFifth Third Bancorp | $47B | 17.4× | 18.6× | 68.5% | 15.8% | 8% |
| HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | $31B | 11.3× | 14.2× | 63.7% | 16.6% | 9% |
| RFRegions Financial Corporation | $23B | 11.0× | 7.2× | 76.8% | 23.3% | 12% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 7.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-32 | $22.23 · −244% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $22 | $22.23 · −2% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.