Keysight Technologies, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Keysight's fundamental momentum is unmistakable — Q3 FY2026 revenue of $1.846B grew 36.5% YoY with a 23.8% EPS surprise, and the AI/6G product narrative is backed by tangible launches like the 20 GHz dual-channel signal generator.
However, at a P/E of 49.68 — a 44% premium to the peer median of 34.50 — and an RSI of 74.04 as of 2 Oct, the stock is priced for perfection and technically overbought after a roughly 90% run. Insiders have net sold $54.7M over 24 months with all recent transactions being dispositions, including CEO Satish Dhanasekaran selling 3,000 shares at $364.13 on 30 Sep, making current levels an unattractive entry despite genuine operating strength.
What could go wrong
- Valuation de-rating. P/E of 49.68 trades at a 44% premium to the peer median of 34.50, and EV/EBITDA of 36.04 is 87% above the peer median of 19.24; any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp compression.
- Overbought technicals. RSI of 74.04 as of 2 Oct with last close at $384.64 well above the 50-day MA of $334.11 signals near-term pullback risk after the stock's extended run.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider selling of $54.7M over 24 months across 152 transactions with no cluster buying; CEO, CFO, and SVP all sold in September 2026.
- Margin compression vs. history. FY2025 operating margin of 17.6% remains well below the 24.9% achieved in FY2023, and total debt has risen to $2.971B from $2.026B over that period.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · technicals. Orin's read on KEYS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 100% over twelve months, from $167.77 on 27 Oct 2025 to $336.10 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $388.03 on 6 Oct 2026; the last close is 13.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 6.1M, on 24 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All KEYS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $7.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $3.4B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.9B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $832.7M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $816.8M | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $766.8M | 0.1% |
103 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 154 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$39.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 21 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KEYS
Orin answers questions about KEYS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 46.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 37.3×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 46.3×above usual | 37.3× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 8.69×above usual | 5.78× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.8×above usual | 21.5× | — |
| P/B | 8.8×above usual | 5.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $421 (from $400 to $440) — 25% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$421
$400 – $440 · +25% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 46.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 70.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc. | $57B | 46.3× | 30.8× | 64.7% | 19.1% | 20% |
| AAgilent Technologies, Inc. | $50B | 34.9× | 25.7× | 53.7% | 19.5% | 20% |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc. | $94B | 67.8× | 40.5× | 85.7% | 22.5% | 20% |
| FORMFormFactor, Inc. | $8B | 72.2× | 49.8× | 45.6% | 12.8% | 11% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $201B | 41.7× | 33.9× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| ONTOOnto Innovation Inc. | $11B | 79.9× | 43.2× | 50.4% | 11.8% | 7% |
| SNPSSynopsys, Inc. | $91B | 82.4× | 26.3× | 72.4% | 11.4% | 4% |
| TERTeradyne, Inc. | $51B | 44.2× | 33.1× | 59.2% | 25.8% | 38% |
| VIAVViavi Solutions Inc. | $6B | 94.7× | 24.3× | 58.9% | 4.0% | 6% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 46.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now46.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $90 a share — 73% below the $334.32 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $90 | 73% below $334.32 |
| Levered | $98 | 71% below $334.32 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.