Keysight Technologies, Inc. KEYS
Keysight's fundamental turnaround is accelerating — Q3 FY2026 revenue of $1.846B grew 36.5% YoY and the company delivered a 23.8% EPS surprise — but the stock's 44.0x P/E, a 46% premium to the peer median of 30.1x, leaves little room for error. Operating margin remains compressed at 17.6% for FY2025 versus 24.9% in FY2023, total debt has climbed to $2.97B from $2.03B, and insiders have net sold $52.2M over 24 months with no open-market buying.
The AI/EDA growth narrative is genuine and smart money scores have turned slightly positive at 0.0161 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, yet the stock trades below its 50-day moving average of $328.0 with a bearish MACD histogram, suggesting near-term caution despite the longer-term uptrend above the 200-day at $286.3.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. P/E of 44.0x is 46% above the peer median of 30.1x and EV/EBITDA of 31.9x is 54% above the peer median of 20.7x, pricing in sustained high growth.
- Margin recovery lag. FY2025 operating margin of 17.6% remains well below the 24.9% achieved in FY2023, and any failure to expand margins could trigger de-rating.
- Insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $52.2M over 24 months with 107 sales versus 41 acquisitions, including recent sales by the CEO and SVPs.
- Debt build-up. Total debt rose to $2.97B in FY2025 from $2.03B in FY2024, increasing financial leverage during the recovery phase.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results, quarter ended 2026-07-31 · earnings_surprises, period_end 2026-08-18 · peer_relative, as of latest data · derived_metrics, fiscal years 2025 and 2023. Orin's read on KEYS; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All KEYS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $3.4B | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
100 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 150 Form 4 filings, net −$53.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 21 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KEYS
Orin answers questions about KEYS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 48.7× | 37.4× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.3× | 21.5× | — |
| P/S | 9.17× | 5.78× | — |
| P/B | 9.3× | 5.4× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.99σ from its own mean).
19.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$417
$384 – $440 · +20% against today's price
- 13 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc. | $60B | 48.7× | 35.3× | 64.7% | 19.1% | 20% |
| CLSCelestica Inc. | $42B | 37.3× | 27.9× | 12.0% | 7.2% | 51% |
| FLEXFlex Ltd. | $41B | 43.4× | 23.4× | 9.5% | 3.3% | 19% |
| GRMNGarmin Ltd. | $55B | 29.5× | 22.1× | 60.1% | 24.5% | 21% |
| HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $83B | 31.0× | 17.1× | 36.0% | 6.6% | 11% |
| JBLJabil Inc. | $32B | 38.1× | 16.4× | 9.2% | 2.6% | 62% |
| SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc. | $27B | 11.4× | 8.5× | 10.8% | 5.7% | 25% |
| SNDKSandisk Corporation | $269B | 23.4× | 20.2× | 71.5% | 56.5% | 93% |
| TDYTeledyne Technologies Incorporated | $29B | 29.9× | 19.2× | 39.0% | 15.3% | 9% |
| TERTeradyne, Inc. | $61B | 53.1× | 41.7× | 59.3% | 25.8% | 38% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 57.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $97 | $324.94 · −70% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $105 | $324.94 · −68% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.