The Kraft Heinz Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Kraft Heinz remains a hold as the underlying ex-impairment business shows pockets of stabilization—Q1 2026 EPS of $0.67 and a Q2 2026 adjusted EPS beat of $0.56 versus $0.54 estimated—but GAAP results remain distorted by a second consecutive year of massive impairment charges, with Q2 2026 posting a $6.43B operating loss and FY2025 a $5.85B net loss.
Revenue declines are moderating (-1.4% YoY in Q2 2026 versus -3.5% for FY2025) and free cash flow stays robust at $3.66B for FY2025 (14.7% FCF margin), but total debt rose to $21.2B and Jefferies cut its price target to $21 citing worsening US retail demand as a $700M turnaround program ramps. CEO Cahillane's $5.0M open-market purchase at $23.46 in May 2026 and a P/S of 1.13 versus the peer median of 0.97 provide some downside support, yet until impairments are clearly exhausted and revenue returns to growth, the risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Persistent impairments. Q2 2026 alone recorded a $6.43B operating loss and FY2025 a $5.85B net loss, suggesting goodwill and asset writedowns may not yet be fully exhausted.
- Revenue erosion continues. Revenue declined 3.5% in FY2025 and was still down 1.4% YoY in Q2 2026, with Jefferies expecting further sequential North American retail sales deterioration.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased from $19.87B at FY2024 to $21.22B at FY2025 while equity fell from $49.19B to $41.66B, weakening the balance sheet.
- Turnaround spend drag. A $700M investment program is ramping just as US demand weakens, pressuring near-term margins and returns on that spending.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · insider trades, 12 May · news, 14 Oct. Orin's read on KHC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 6.0% over twelve months, from $25.59 on 27 Oct 2025 to $24.06 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $27.62 on 29 Jul 2026; the last close is 12.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 123.8M, on 11 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All KHC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $7.7B | 2.6% |
| BlackRock | $1.8B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $962.6M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $731.3M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $412.0M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $368.7M | 0.0% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $358.9M | 1.0% |
100 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 62 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KHC
Orin answers questions about KHC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 1.21× its yearly sales — below its usual level (1.66×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 18.5× | 37.9× |
| P/S | 1.21×below usual | 1.66× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | not meaningful | — | — |
| P/B | 0.8×near usual | 0.9× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: not meaningful — over the last 12 months the business itself lost money before depreciation (operating income plus depreciation is below zero); a profit from one-off gains does not count.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $24.38 (from $21 to $32) — 1% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$24.38
$21 – $32 · +1% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company | $30B | lost money | n/m | 33.5% | −14.0% | −9% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | $7B | lost money | n/m | 23.8% | −17.0% | −26% |
| CPBCampbell Soup Company | $6B | 15.4× | 10.1× | 28.1% | 4.1% | 10% |
| GISGeneral Mills, Inc. | $18B | lost money | 9.3× | 33.6% | −4.9% | −11% |
| HRLHormel Foods Corporation | $11B | 33.1× | 15.5× | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4% |
| HSYThe Hershey Company | $33B | 22.3× | 14.5× | 38.1% | 12.2% | 32% |
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | $80B | 22.8× | 16.0× | 31.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
| MKCMcCormick & Company, Incorporated | $13B | 8.6× | 12.5× | 39.1% | 19.4% | 22% |
| SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company | $14B | 59.3× | 15.3× | 38.7% | 2.5% | 4% |
| TSNTyson Foods, Inc. | $20B | 33.4× | 10.3× | 6.1% | 1.0% | 3% |
- CAG, GIS: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- KHC, CAG: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 37.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now37.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $21 a share — 14% below the $24.18 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $21 | 14% below $24.18 |
| Levered | $59 | 143% above $24.18 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.