Orin
KKRNYSE·Asset Management

KKR & Co. Inc. KKR

Market cap $86.7BP/E 28.5× trailingGross margin 22.5%Reports Fri 6 Nov, before the open
$96.53
+0.89 (+0.93%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $82.67 – $144.84
Watch
Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 29 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

KKR remains a hold at $108.68 as of the close on 2026-08-28. The firm's deal pipeline is visibly robust — the Steadfast $5.51B buyout, Enbridge JV, SK Telecom AI infrastructure investment, and Ci FLAVORS acquisition all landed in late August 2026 — but FY2025 financials deteriorated sharply, with EPS falling 28.66% to $2.34 and FCF margin collapsing from 30.08% to 1.65% year-over-year.

The stock trades 10.66% above the peer median PE of 29.23 while smart money has turned slightly negative at -0.0187 as of Q2 2026 13Fs, and a newly announced fraud investigation adds an unquantified overhang. The growth narrative is intact but current valuation already reflects much of the deal momentum.

What could go wrong

  • Fraud investigation overhang. A fraud investigation led by SBS Law was announced on 2026-08-27; outcome and scope are unknown but could pressure the stock if materialized.
  • Earnings deterioration. FY2025 EPS declined 28.66% to $2.34 and operating margin compressed to 2.4% from 4.28% in FY2024, despite revenue of $19.26B.
  • Smart money outflow. Smart money score declined from 0.0526 at Q4 2025 to -0.0187 at Q2 2026, with fund count dropping from 70 to 67, indicating institutional positioning is softening.
  • Valuation premium. PE of 32.35 sits 10.66% above the peer median of 29.23, limiting upside if deal momentum fails to translate into earnings recovery.

What would change my mind

Earnings inflection. Q3 2026 or FY2026 results show EPS recovery above $3.00 annualized with FCF margin returning above 15%bullish
Fraud investigation escalation. SEC inquiry or class-action certification materializes from the SBS Law investigationbearish
Smart money reversal. Q3 2026 13F composite shows smart money score turning positive above 0.05 with fund count increasingbullish
Technical breakdown. Stock closes below the 200-day MA of $105.98 on elevated volumebearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2024 vs FY2025 · peer_relative composite · 13F composite as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on KKR; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$4.1B0.1% of fund
State Street$2.7B0.1% of fund
Fmr$2.0B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.4B0.1% of fund
Capital Research Global Investors$1.3B0.2% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp$1.3B0.2% of fund

122 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 53 Form 4 filings, net −$356.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 14 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Financial Services
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E28.5×—21.6×
EV/EBITDA12.9×18.2×—
P/S4.08×5.89×—
P/B2.8×3.1×—

Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.44σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

44.6%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

27 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$127

$116 – $147 · +31% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 24 buy or overweight
  • 3 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 26.0× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
KKRKKR & Co. Inc.$86B28.5×12.9×22.5%15.0%10%
APOApollo Global Management, Inc.$70B26.1×6.0×84.5%5.2%9%
ARESAres Management Corporation$39B52.4×21.1×62.7%10.0%15%
BLKBlackRock, Inc.$166B25.3×16.0×55.7%24.1%12%
BXBlackstone Inc.$142B26.0×18.2×88.8%21.9%41%
TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc.$22B10.4×6.9×70.7%29.3%20%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 9.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 18.6×FY25 50.8×

What its sector has traded at

Financial Services
FY14 29.6×FY26 23.8×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$74$95.07 · −22%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$-145$95.07 · −252%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $96.53
52-week range$83 – $145
Analyst targets$116 – $147
Standard DCF$74 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $95.07
Levered DCF$-145 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $95.07
At own 5y-median P/E (19×)$65
At 5y P/E range (-67–48×)$-224 – $161
At sector P/E (22×)$72

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.