KKR & Co. Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
KKR remains a hold at $91.30 as of the close on 30 Sep.
The stock has sold off sharply — RSI sits near 31 and price is well below both the 50-day ($103.53) and 200-day ($103.42) moving averages — but the firm's Q3 2026 monetization activity update of $750M+ and strong quarterly revenue growth (Q2 2026 +13.1% YoY) suggest the operating picture is stabilizing after a weak FY2025 when EPS fell 28.7% to $2.34 and operating margin compressed to 2.6%. Valuation is mixed: KKR trades at an 11.1% PE premium to the peer median but at a 33.5% discount on price-to-sales and 19.4% below the peer median EV/EBITDA. Persistent insider net selling of $356M over 24 months and slightly negative smart money (-0.01 as of Q2 2026 13Fs) temper enthusiasm ahead of Q3 2026 results on November 9.
What could go wrong
- FY2025 margin collapse persists. FY2025 operating margin fell to 2.6% from 4.3% in FY2024, and FCF margin collapsed to 1.7% from 30.1%; if FY2026 doesn't show clear recovery, the thesis weakens.
- Technical breakdown deepens. Stock at $91.30 is below both the 50-day MA ($103.53) and 200-day MA ($103.42), with MACD line -3.20 below signal -2.31; further deterioration could signal institutional distribution.
- Sustained insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $356M and -4.96M shares over 24 months, with recent September 2026 sales by the CAO and Co-CEO, suggest limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Smart money outflows accelerate. Smart money score turned negative at -0.01 as of Q2 2026 13Fs, down from 0.02 in Q1 2026 and 0.07 in Q4 2025, with fund count declining from 70 to 67.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 30 Sep · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · news, 25 Sep. Orin's read on KKR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 24.8% over twelve months, from $122.26 on 27 Oct 2025 to $91.92 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $142.77 on 11 Dec 2025; the last close is 35.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 21.9M, on 27 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All KKR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.1B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $1.3B | 0.2% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.3B | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $977.6M | 0.3% |
| Invesco | $942.6M | 0.1% |
125 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 55 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$357.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 14 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KKR
Orin answers questions about KKR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 27.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.4× | — | 17.6× |
| P/S | 3.92×below usual | 5.91× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.7×below usual | 3.1× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 9.4× to 50.8× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 4.9× to 49.1× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $121 (from $97 to $138) — 31% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$121
$97 – $138 · +31% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 27.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 25.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KKRKKR & Co. Inc. | $83B | 27.4× | 12.6× | 22.5% | 15.0% | 10% |
| APOApollo Global Management, Inc. | $67B | 24.7× | 5.8× | 84.5% | 5.2% | 9% |
| ARESAres Management Corporation | $40B | 53.4× | 21.4× | 62.7% | 10.0% | 15% |
| BXBlackstone Inc. | $134B | 25.8× | 16.9× | 89.7% | 21.8% | 41% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 27.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now27.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $74 a share — 19% below the $91.73 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $74 | 19% below $91.73 |
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.