KLA Corporation KLAC
KLAC's FY2026 results (ended 2026-06-30) remain best-in-class—$13.58B revenue at 61.3% gross margin and $3.77B free cash flow—but growth has decelerated to 11.7% from 23.9% the prior year, and the stock still trades at 49.8x PE and 42.4x EV/EBITDA, roughly 26% and 46% above peer medians respectively. The pullback to $183.34 (below the 50-day MA of $217.46 but above the 200-day MA of $169.13) with RSI at 40.0 has improved the entry point, and smart money scores jumped to 0.4686 as of Q2 2026 from 0.1835 the prior quarter, signaling institutional accumulation.
However, persistent cluster insider selling—$339.2M net over 24 months including August 2026 sales by the CEO ($17.4M), CFO ($6.6M), and multiple EVPs—combined with a bearish MACD histogram of -0.67 and decelerating top-line growth, keeps the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 49.8x PE and 42.4x EV/EBITDA—26.5% and 46.4% above peer medians—any disappointment in AI-driven capex spending could trigger multiple contraction despite strong fundamentals.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $339.2M over 24 months with 128 sales vs 55 acquisitions, including coordinated August 2026 selling by the CEO, CFO, and division presidents, signals limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Semiconductor cycle risk. Chip stocks are de-risking ahead of NVIDIA earnings (SOXX down 4% on 2026-08-24); a negative AI capex narrative could drag KLAC further below its 50-day MA despite strong process-control demand.
- Growth deceleration. Revenue growth slowed to 11.7% in FY2026 from 23.9% in FY2025; if the deceleration continues into FY2027, the premium multiple becomes harder to justify.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2026 annual (period ended 2026-06-30) · derived_metrics FY2026 vs FY2025 · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-25. Orin's read on KLAC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All KLAC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $25.7B | 0.6% of fund |
| State Street | $19.0B | 0.6% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $13.7B | 1.6% of fund |
| Invesco | $13.5B | 1.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $13.0B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $11.9B | 0.5% of fund |
143 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 184 Form 4 filings, net −$354.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 11 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KLAC
Orin answers questions about KLAC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 51.0× | 24.0× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.4× | 18.3× | — |
| P/S | 18.07× | 7.22× | — |
| P/B | 38.8× | 25.4× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.84σ from its own mean).
23.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$226
$180 – $325 · +22% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 14 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLACKLA Corporation | $245B | 51.0× | 43.4× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| ACNAccenture plc | $112B | 14.5× | 8.7× | 32.0% | 10.7% | 25% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $188B | 45.5× | 29.8× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| APHAmphenol Corporation | $203B | 39.1× | 23.1× | 38.5% | 17.8% | 37% |
| ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $355B | 342.8× | 256.8× | 95.3% | 20.2% | 13% |
| INTCIntel Corporation | $618B | — | 178.7× | 38.9% | -19.8% | -11% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $207B | 22.5× | 16.2× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $249B | 41.2× | 28.5× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 24.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $596 | $2132.18 · −72% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $631 | $2132.18 · −70% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.