Kimberly-Clark Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
KMB trades at a steep 38% P/E discount to its consumer-staples peer group (16.6x vs 26.9x median) and 33% below on EV/EBITDA, reflecting a genuine deterioration: FY2025 revenue fell 14.2% to $17.2B, EPS dropped 19.6% to $6.07, and FCF margin compressed to 9.5% from 12.5%.
Q2 2026 offered a tentative inflection with the first positive revenue print at 0.6% YoY, but the quarter's EPS missed estimates by 10.4% ($1.80 vs $2.01) and operating income of $448M trailed prior quarters, while the loss of President Russ Torres to Keurig Dr Pepper adds execution risk. With $7.3B total debt against just $1.5B equity, net insider selling of ~15,855 shares over 24 months, and the stock below both its 50-day ($103.74) and 200-day ($102.49) moving averages, the valuation discount is earned — the call waits for evidence that revenue stabilization translates into margin recovery.
What could go wrong
- Leverage pressure. Total debt of $7.296B against $1.502B equity at FY2025 end creates a fragile balance sheet if revenue or cash flow deteriorates further; FCF fell to $1.639B from $2.513B YoY.
- Earnings quality decline. Q2 2026 EPS of $1.04 (diluted) was well below Q1 2026's $2.00 and Q3 2025's $1.34, and the quarter missed estimates by 10.4%, signaling cost pressures or mix issues persisting despite revenue stabilization.
- Key talent departure. President Russ Torres was hired away to helm Keurig Dr Pepper's coffee spinoff as of October 2026, removing a senior leader during a turnaround phase.
- Institutional apathy. Smart money score is negligible at 0.02 as of Q2 2026 with fund count declining from 68 to 66, and insider activity shows net selling of $2.1M over 24 months.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results. Orin's read on KMB; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 9.6% over twelve months, from $120.62 on 27 Oct 2025 to $109.10 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $120.66 on 28 Oct 2025; the last close is 9.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 36.8M, on 3 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All KMB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $1.2B | 0.2% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $894.9M | 0.3% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $774.4M | 0.6% |
| Bank of America | $755.4M | 0.0% |
111 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 170 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KMB
Orin answers questions about KMB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 11.1× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.3×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NASDAQ is at 37.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.1×below usual | 23.3× | 37.9× |
| P/S | 2.22×near usual | 2.20× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.3×below usual | 15.7× | — |
| P/B | 11.9×below usual | 52.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $115 (from $105 to $120) — 5% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$115
$105 – $120 · +5% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 11.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 28.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $37B | 11.1× | 13.3× | 36.5% | 19.9% | 163% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $25B | 33.7× | 21.3× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| CLColgate-Palmolive Company | $73B | 36.2× | 20.8× | 60.4% | 9.7% | 631% |
| CLXThe Clorox Company | $11B | 18.1× | 13.6× | 42.3% | 8.7% | n/m |
| PGThe Procter & Gamble Company | $369B | 23.6× | 16.0× | 49.8% | 18.2% | 30% |
- CLX: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 11.1× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now11.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 37.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now37.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $131 a share — 20% above the $108.88 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $131 | 20% above $108.88 |
| Levered | $138 | 26% above $108.88 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.