Kimberly-Clark Corporation KMB
Hold Kimberly-Clark — the stock trades at an 18.9% P/E discount to peers (18.32x vs 22.59x median) with smart money improving to a slightly positive 0.0333 score as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, but FY2025 revenue fell 14.17% to $17.2B, EPS dropped 19.6% to $6.07, and FCF compressed to $1.639B. Management's August 14, 2026 cut to the 2026 outlook on China diaper disruption confirms the turnaround is not yet de-risked, while $7.296B total debt against $1.502B equity limits financial flexibility.
The Kenvue synergy story ($1.9B cost and $1.4B revenue targets) and management's mid-to-high single-digit EPS CAGR guidance for 2026–2028 offer a credible but unproven recovery path, leaving the stock range-bound below its 50-day MA at $107.72.
What could go wrong
- China disruption persists. The diaper quality issue in China forced a 2026 outlook cut on August 14; if the disruption extends beyond a few quarters, revenue and margin recovery could be delayed further.
- Kenvue integration underdelivers. Synergy targets of $1.9B cost and $1.4B revenue are ambitious; failure to realize them would leave the deal dilutive to EPS as initially expected.
- Leverage constraints. Total debt of $7.296B against $1.502B equity limits financial flexibility to invest in growth or absorb further headwinds.
- FCF compression. FY2025 FCF fell to $1.639B from $2.513B in FY2024 as capex rose to $1.138B, narrowing the cushion for dividend sustainability.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · peer_relative · smart_money · FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics. Orin's read on KMB; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All KMB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $1.2B | 0.2% of fund |
108 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 170 Form 4 filings, net −$17.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KMB
Orin answers questions about KMB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.6× | 23.3× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.4× | 15.7× | — |
| P/S | 1.96× | 2.20× | — |
| P/B | 18.6× | 52.6× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.27σ from its own mean).
7.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$112
$100 – $118 · +14% against today's price
- 10 buy or overweight
- 18 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $32B | 16.6× | 12.4× | 36.7% | 11.8% | 123% |
| ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company | $40B | 22.5× | 8.9× | 6.9% | 2.2% | 8% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $23B | 30.8× | 20.5× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $36B | 197.7× | 48.8× | 75.5% | 1.2% | 5% |
| HSYThe Hershey Company | $34B | 22.8× | 14.9× | 38.1% | 12.2% | 32% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $43B | 31.9× | 21.0× | 49.4% | 7.1% | 6% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | $34B | 20.3× | 13.0× | 58.2% | 10.8% | 16% |
| SYYSysco Corporation | $37B | 21.0× | 13.1× | 18.5% | 2.1% | 75% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 27.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $158 | $101.82 · +55% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $170 | $101.82 · +67% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.