Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI
Kinder Morgan's FY2025 results show genuine fundamental improvement — revenue grew 12.5% to $16.95B, EPS rose 17.1% to $1.37, and gross margin expanded to 43.7% from 36.7% — supported by a $9.6B project backlog and raised 2026 guidance on surging natural gas demand from data centers and LNG. However, KMI trades at a 52.5% P/E premium (20.2x vs peer median 13.3x) and 53.2% EV/EBITDA premium (12.7x vs 8.3x) to peers, which already discounts much of this growth, while free cash flow has compressed from $4.15B in 2023 to $3.22B in 2025 as capex accelerates to $3.03B.
Smart-money conviction has weakened sharply (SM score falling from 0.1054 as of 2026-03-31 to 0.0277 as of 2026-06-30), and the stock sits below its 50-day MA at $31.56 with a negative MACD histogram, suggesting near-term momentum has stalled despite the strong earnings print.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 20.2x P/E and 12.7x EV/EBITDA — 52.5% and 53.2% above peer medians respectively — any disappointment in volume growth or guidance could trigger a sharp de-rating toward peer multiples.
- FCF erosion from rising capex. Capex has climbed from $2.35B in 2023 to $3.03B in 2025, compressing FCF from $4.15B to $3.22B despite higher revenue; sustained capex growth without proportional cash flow gains could pressure the dividend coverage and deleveraging trajectory.
- Smart-money fade. Institutional SM score dropped from 0.1054 (Q1 2026) to 0.0277 (Q2 2026) as of 2026-06-30, indicating large funds are reducing conviction even as retail-oriented coverage remains bullish.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net value is -$12.0M across 113 transactions, with the CEO and multiple VPs disposing shares at $32.18 on 2026-07-31, though most were code 'F' (withholding) transactions.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · derived_metrics, FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative composite · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2023–FY2025. Orin's read on KMI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All KMI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $4.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
122 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 114 Form 4 filings, net −$12.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KMI
Orin answers questions about KMI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.1× | 20.0× | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6× | 11.7× | — |
| P/S | 3.89× | 2.60× | — |
| P/B | 2.2× | 1.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.34σ from its own mean).
8.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$36
$32 – $43 · +15% against today's price
- 16 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMIKinder Morgan, Inc. | $70B | 20.1× | 12.6× | 54.9% | 19.3% | 11% |
| EOGEOG Resources, Inc. | $76B | 11.0× | 5.6× | 70.2% | 25.7% | 22% |
| MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | $113B | 13.4× | 8.0× | 11.6% | 5.6% | 49% |
| PSXPhillips 66 | $103B | 14.5× | 9.3× | 9.8% | 4.6% | 24% |
| SLBSLB N.V. | $77B | 24.9× | 12.2× | 16.5% | 8.5% | 12% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 44.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $51 | $32.01 · +60% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $49 | $32.01 · +54% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.