Kinder Morgan, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Kinder Morgan's growth momentum is intact — FY2025 revenue grew 12.5% to $16.95B with EPS up 17.1% to $1.37 and gross margin expanding to 43.7%, while Q1 and Q2 2026 sustained double-digit YoY revenue growth (13.5% and 10.8%) with strong earnings beats of 21.2% and 15.4% respectively.
Technicals have improved since early October, with the stock at $33.39 above both its 50-day ($31.72) and 200-day ($31.78) moving averages and a positive MACD histogram. However, KMI still trades at a 33.7% EV/EBITDA premium to peers (13.2x vs 9.9x median) and free cash flow has compressed to $2.89B in FY2025 from $4.15B in FY2023 as capex accelerated to $3.03B, keeping the growth story largely priced in ahead of Q3 2026 earnings on October 21.
What could go wrong
- FCF erosion from rising capex. Free cash flow fell to $2.89B in FY2025 from $4.15B in FY2023 as capex climbed to $3.03B, shrinking FCF margin to 17.1% from 27.4% over two years.
- Valuation premium on EV/EBITDA. KMI trades at 13.2x EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 9.9x — a 33.7% premium — despite PE being roughly in line at 21.4x vs 21.9x median.
- High leverage. Total debt stood at $32.39B at FY2025 year-end against stockholders' equity of $31.16B, a debt-to-equity ratio near 1.04x.
- Insider selling pattern. Over 24 months insiders recorded 25 dispositions vs 5 acquisitions, with recent July 2026 transactions showing the CEO and multiple VPs selling via code F at $32.18 per share.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 22 Jul · technicals, 19 Oct. Orin's read on KMI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 29.4% over twelve months, from $26.15 on 27 Oct 2025 to $33.85 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $34.43 on 23 Oct 2026; the last close is 1.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 35.9M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All KMI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.6B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $974.3M | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $952.0M | 0.1% |
125 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 115 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $17.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KMI
Orin answers questions about KMI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 20.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 20.1×); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.9×near usual | 20.1× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 4.11×above usual | 2.60× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0×above usual | 11.7× | — |
| P/B | 2.4×above usual | 1.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $37.33 (from $34 to $43) — 10% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$37.33
$34 – $43 · +10% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 20.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMIKinder Morgan, Inc. | $75B | 20.9× | 14.0× | 56.7% | 19.6% | 11% |
| GELGenesis Energy, L.P. | $2B | 63.9× | 7.3× | 27.8% | 3.9% | n/m |
| NGLNGL Energy Partners LP | $2B | lost money | 4.0× | 41.4% | −6.4% | −24% |
| OKEONEOK, Inc. | $61B | 16.5× | 11.8× | 21.8% | 9.3% | 16% |
| PAAPlains All American Pipeline, L.P. | $19B | 7.3× | 8.5× | 4.5% | 5.3% | 27% |
| TRGPTarga Resources Corp. | $58B | 23.9× | 15.2× | 39.5% | 13.5% | 72% |
| WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc. | $91B | 29.4× | 15.8× | 73.6% | 25.2% | 24% |
- NGL: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- GEL: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 20.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now20.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $39 a share — 15% above the $33.88 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $39 | 15% above $33.88 |
| Levered | $36 | 7% above $33.88 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.