Orin
KNNYSE·Hardware, Equipment & Parts

Knowles Corporation KN

Market cap $3.2BP/E 46.5× trailingGross margin 42.3%Reports Thu 22 Oct, after the close
$37.24
+0.48 (+1.31%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $20.57 – $42.93
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Orin's take
0.55conviction · moderate
Refreshed 1 Sep · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Knowles' portfolio reshaping is producing results — operating margin expanded to 13.1% in FY2025 (ended 2025-12-31) from 10.24% in FY2024 on revenue of $593.2M, and the company returned to profitability with $44.2M net income after a $239.5M loss year. BlackRock's newly reported 16.13% stake (approximately 13.78M shares as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30) is a meaningful institutional endorsement of the specialty-components pivot.

However, at $34.18 as of 2026-08-31, the stock trades at 43.3x trailing P/E — a 621% premium to the peer median of 6.0x — while revenue growth has decelerated from 21.17% to 7.17% and free cash flow has declined from $116.5M to $81.9M, with net insider dispositions of $33.2M over 24 months including heavy CEO and CFO sales in August 2026 signaling that management views current pricing as adequate.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation compression. At 43.3x P/E and 23.1x EV/EBITDA, any shortfall against management's 30% margin target could trigger a sharp de-rating given the 621% premium to peer median P/E.
  • Growth deceleration. Revenue growth has slowed from 21.17% in FY2024 to 7.17% in FY2025; further deceleration would undermine the premium multiple thesis.
  • Insider selling. Net insider dispositions total $33.2M over 24 months with 139 sales versus 61 acquisitions, and the CEO and CFO both sold heavily in August 2026 at $38–39 per share.
  • FCF erosion. Free cash flow declined from $116.5M in FY2024 to $81.9M in FY2025 as capex rose to $32.1M, weakening the cash-generation narrative.

What would change my mind

Margin progress. Quarterly results show operating margins trending convincingly toward management's 30% targetbullish
Insider reversal. Net insider transactions turn positive or the pace of dispositions slows materially for two consecutive quartersbullish
Revenue reacceleration. Quarterly revenue growth reaccelerates above 10% year-over-yearbullish
Technical breakdown. Stock breaks below the 200-day moving average at $30.13 on elevated volumebearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 and FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · peer_relative · Defense World news, 2026-08-24. Orin's read on KN; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$283.3M0.0% of fund
Goldman Sachs Group$187.8M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$153.6M0.0% of fund
State Street$145.7M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$100.5M0.0% of fund
Franklin Resources$75.7M0.0% of fund

55 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 199 Form 4 filings, net −$33.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 19 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E46.5×—53.3×
EV/EBITDA24.8×——
P/S4.94×——
P/B4.0×——
What the price assumes

16.6%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

15 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$41

$38 – $44 · +9% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 7 buy or overweight
  • 6 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 70.9× of 2 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
KNKnowles Corporation$3B46.5×24.8×42.3%10.6%9%
AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.$8B——28.9%-9.6%-6%
BELFBBel Fuse Inc.$3B62.7×21.3×39.5%8.1%11%
ONDSOndas Holdings Inc.$4B79.0×63.0×43.7%96.2%19%
SONOSonos, Inc.$2B—16.4×46.5%-2.5%-10%

The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 34.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY17 19.3×FY25 42.0×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $37.24
52-week range$21 – $43
Analyst targets$38 – $44
At sector P/E (53×)$42

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.