The Coca-Cola Company KO
KO's FY2025 results show genuine fundamental improvement — operating margin expanded to 28.71% from 21.23% in FY2024 and EPS grew 23.58% to $3.04 — with quarterly momentum accelerating into 2026 (Q2 2026 revenue up 6.74% YoY and consistent positive earnings surprises). However, the stock at $88 trades at an 89.1% premium to the peer median P/S and EV/EBITDA 12.2% above the peer median, while FCF of $5.3B in FY2025 remains well below FY2021's $11.3B and operating cash flow has declined from $12.6B in FY2021 to $7.4B in FY2025 despite higher revenue and earnings.
The P/E of 26.4x is roughly in line with the peer median of 26.9x, limiting downside, and smart money remains positive at 0.0844 as of June 2026, but persistent net insider selling of $190M over 24 months and a smart money score that declined from 0.152 to 0.0844 suggest the recent run-up may have pulled forward much of the good news.
What could go wrong
- Operating cash flow erosion. OCF declined from $12.6B in FY2021 to $7.4B in FY2025 despite revenue rising from $38.7B to $47.9B, creating a structural mismatch between reported earnings and cash generation that threatens dividend and buyback sustainability at $47.2B of total debt.
- Rich revenue multiple. P/S of 7.55x sits 89.1% above the peer median of 3.99x, meaning the market is pricing in sustained margin expansion and mix improvement; any deceleration risks multiple compression even if earnings hold.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $190.2M over the trailing 24 months across 180 transactions, with the most recent activity in August 2026 showing option exercises followed by sales, signal limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Smart money momentum cooling. The smart money score fell from 0.152 as of March 2026 to 0.0844 as of June 2026, indicating institutional enthusiasm is moderating after the stock's 26% YTD gain.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 + fundamentals FY2025 · quarterly_results Q2 2026 revenue_yoy_pct · peer_relative ps_vs_median_pct. Orin's read on KO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All KO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $32.5B | 10.9% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $19.4B | 0.4% of fund |
| State Street | $13.7B | 0.4% of fund |
| Fmr | $8.9B | 0.4% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $8.6B | 0.5% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $8.1B | 0.4% of fund |
176 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 180 Form 4 filings, net −$190.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 15 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KO
Orin answers questions about KO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 26.5× | 25.2× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.7× | 18.7× | — |
| P/S | 7.56× | 6.27× | — |
| P/B | 10.5× | 10.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.52σ from its own mean).
25.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $5.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$96
$86 – $104 · +9% against today's price
- 29 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOThe Coca-Cola Company | $379B | 26.5× | 20.7× | 61.9% | 28.6% | 43% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $43B | 31.9× | 21.0× | 49.4% | 7.1% | 6% |
| MNSTMonster Beverage Corporation | $86B | 40.3× | 28.1× | 55.5% | 23.1% | 25% |
| PEPPepsiCo, Inc. | $178B | 17.0× | 11.8× | 54.0% | 10.8% | 50% |
| PGThe Procter & Gamble Company | $351B | 21.8× | 17.7× | 50.2% | 18.4% | 30% |
| PMPhilip Morris International Inc. | $297B | 27.4× | 18.7× | 67.5% | 25.6% | -112% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $98 | $83.72 · +17% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $53 | $83.72 · −36% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.