Orin
KVUENYSE·Household & Personal Products

Kenvue Inc. KVUE

Market cap $34.2BP/E 20.3× trailingGross margin 58.2%Reports Mon 2 Nov, before the open
$17.79
+0.12 (+0.68%)live 09:30 ET
52-wk $14.02 – $20.13
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Orin's take
0.58conviction · moderate
Refreshed 7 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Kenvue remains a hold after Q2 2026 results narrowly missed estimates ($0.31 vs. $0.32 consensus) as inflation, tariffs, and FX squeezed margins despite a third consecutive quarter of organic sales growth. The pending Kimberly-Clark acquisition anchors the stock near $19.23 — above both the 50-day ($18.71) and 200-day ($17.62) moving averages — but valuation is roughly in line with peers (P/E 22.0 vs. median 21.9; EV/EBITDA 14.0 vs. median 15.0), and smart money has turned slightly negative (-0.0975 as of Q1 2026).

FY2025 operating income recovered to $2.70B from $1.84B in FY2024, yet revenue declined to $15.12B from $15.46B, and insider selling by the General Counsel (full common-stock liquidation in May) and CFO (June) tempers enthusiasm ahead of deal closure.

What could go wrong

  • Deal break risk. The pending Kimberly-Clark acquisition could face regulatory or shareholder hurdles; a breakup would remove the price floor and expose standalone valuation.
  • Margin compression. Q2 2026 margins narrowed due to inflation, tariffs, and FX; if these cost pressures persist, FY2025 operating income recovery to $2.70B could stall.
  • Revenue stagnation. FY2025 revenue of $15.12B declined from $15.46B in FY2024 and $15.44B in FY2023, suggesting growth is pricing-driven and vulnerable to volume softness.
  • Insider signal. General Counsel fully liquidated common stock in May 2026 and CFO sold 3,700 shares in June; smart money score turned negative at -0.0975.

What would change my mind

KMB deal closure. Kimberly-Clark acquisition completes at or above agreed termsbullish
Deal breakup or revision. Acquisition falls through or price is renegotiated lowerbearish
Margin recovery. Gross margin re-expands above 58% with operating leveragebullish
Revenue acceleration. Organic sales growth exceeds 3% with volume contribution, reversing the revenue decline trendbullish

Where this comes from: Zacks news article, 2026-08-06 · Business Wire press release, 2026-08-06 · FMP fundamentals FY2025/FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025/FY2024. Orin's read on KVUE; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Fmr$3.0B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$2.4B0.1% of fund
State Street$2.3B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.8B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$990.2M0.1% of fund
Pentwater Capital Management$977.1M6.0% of fund

104 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 174 Form 4 filings, net $135.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Consumer Defensive
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E20.3×24.5×38.3×
EV/EBITDA13.0×14.8×
P/S2.20×2.62×
P/B3.2×3.1×

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.08σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

7.5%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

14 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$20

$19$20 · +10% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 4 buy or overweight
  • 10 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 22.8× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
KVUEKenvue Inc.$34B20.3×13.0×58.2%10.8%16%
ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company$40B22.5×8.9×6.9%2.2%8%
CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc.$23B30.8×20.5×45.6%12.0%18%
ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc.$36B197.7×48.8×75.5%1.2%5%
HSYThe Hershey Company$34B22.8×14.9×38.1%12.2%32%
KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.$43B31.9×21.0×49.4%7.1%6%
KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company$28B32.8%-13.6%-8%
KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation$32B16.6×12.4×36.7%11.8%123%
SYYSysco Corporation$37B21.0×13.1×18.5%2.1%75%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 11.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY19 35.4×FY25 22.3×

What its sector has traded at

Consumer Defensive
FY14 22.9×FY26 39.1×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$32$18.09 · +77%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$46$18.09 · +156%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $17.79
52-week range$14 – $20
Analyst targets$19 – $20
Standard DCF$32 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $18.09
Levered DCF$46 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $18.09
At own 5y-median P/E (24×)$21
At 5y P/E range (22–39×)$20 – $34
At sector P/E (38×)$33

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.