Kenvue Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Kenvue remains a hold as the pending $40 billion Kimberly-Clark acquisition dominates the investment case, with concrete deal progression — exchange offers for up to $7 billion of Kenvue notes commenced September 28, post-closing leadership announced October 1, and EU antitrust remedies offered September 23 — increasing closing probability but leaving binary regulatory risk unresolved ahead of an expected Q4 2026 close.
FY2025 EPS rebounded 40.7% to $0.76 and Q2 2026 revenue grew 3.0% YoY to $3.955B, yet the stock has slipped to $17.53, below both the 50-day ($18.52) and 200-day ($18.04) moving averages, with the most recent adjusted EPS slightly missing estimates (-2.7%). Valuation sits modestly below peers (P/E 20.15 vs. median 22.01; EV/EBITDA 12.96 vs. 13.31), but the deal outcome warrants patience rather than a directional bet.
What could go wrong
- EU antitrust block. Despite remedies offered September 23, the European Commission could demand excessive divestitures or block the deal outright, collapsing the acquisition premium embedded in the stock.
- Deal break downside. If the transaction terminates, KVUE likely re-rates lower; FY2025 revenue still declined 2.1% YoY and standalone growth is modest, limiting fundamental support at current levels.
- Technical weakness. Stock at $17.53 trades below both MA50 ($18.52) and MA200 ($18.04), indicating market skepticism about deal completion or deal terms.
- Leverage overhang. Total debt of $8.52B as of FY2025 constrains financial flexibility, particularly relevant if the deal breaks and KVUE must operate independently.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news, 23 Sep · news, 28 Sep · news, 1 Oct · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on KVUE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 28.8% over twelve months, from $15.08 on 27 Oct 2025 to $19.43 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $19.88 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 2.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 203.5M, on 3 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All KVUE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| BlackRock | $2.9B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $990.2M | 0.1% |
| Pentwater Capital Management | $977.1M | 6.0% |
| Norges Bank | $882.1M | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $861.9M | 0.3% |
| Millennium Management | $705.9M | 0.3% |
106 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 193 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $110.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about KVUE
Orin answers questions about KVUE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.3× | — | 21.9× |
| P/S | 2.42× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1× | — | — |
| P/B | 3.5× | — | — |
- Listed on 4 May 2023 — earlier years are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $19.50 (from $19 to $20) — 0% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$19.50
$19 – $20 · +0% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 34.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | $37B | 22.3× | 14.1× | 58.2% | 10.8% | 16% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $25B | 33.7× | 21.3× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| CLColgate-Palmolive Company | $73B | 36.2× | 20.8× | 60.4% | 9.7% | 631% |
| ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $39B | 212× | 27.3× | 75.5% | 1.2% | 5% |
| PGThe Procter & Gamble Company | $369B | 23.6× | 16.0× | 49.8% | 18.2% | 30% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $27 a share — 40% above the $19.38 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $27 | 40% above $19.38 |
| Levered | $41 | 112% above $19.38 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.