Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Lincoln Electric's revenue growth is visibly accelerating — Q2 2026 revenue rose 12.1% YoY and Q1 2026 rose 11.6%, with FY2025 operating margin expanding to 16.9% from 15.9% and $534M in free cash flow (12.6% FCF margin) — but the stock has slipped below both its 50-day ($270.93) and 200-day ($265.09) moving averages with RSI at 46.6 and a bearish MACD histogram, signaling technical deterioration that tempers the fundamental strength.
The 31st consecutive annual dividend increase to $3.48/share (up 10%) and consistent EPS beats support holding existing positions, while the 35.9% EV/EBITDA premium to the peer median of 12.6x limits the margin of safety for new entries at $262.10.
What could go wrong
- Cyclical demand reversal. Welding consumables and equipment are tied to industrial capital spending cycles; any manufacturing slowdown would pressure volume growth that drove Q2 2026's 12.1% revenue increase.
- Valuation compression. LECO trades at a 35.9% EV/EBITDA premium and 14.5% P/E premium to the peer median; a multiple re-rating toward peers could offset earnings growth.
- Gross margin erosion. FY2025 gross margin declined to 36.3% from 36.9% in FY2024; further compression would constrain the operating leverage thesis.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 94,114 shares for $22.8M with zero open-market acquisitions; continued selling signals limited insider confidence at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q1–Q2 2026 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · FY25 fundamentals · news, 14 Oct. Orin's read on LECO; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 16.6% over twelve months, from $242.07 on 27 Oct 2025 to $282.37 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $298.88 on 6 Feb 2026; the last close is 5.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.3M, on 20 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All LECO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $680.9M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $657.7M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $600.5M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $458.9M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $384.1M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $348.5M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $275.9M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $244.4M | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $185.1M | 0.0% |
82 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 150 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$22.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LECO
Orin answers questions about LECO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 26.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 22.9×); the typical Industrials company on the NASDAQ is at 18.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 26.8×above usual | 22.9× | 18.4× |
| P/S | 3.32×above usual | 2.65× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.7×above usual | 14.4× | — |
| P/B | 9.9×above usual | 9.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $303 (from $271 to $340) — 7% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$303
$271 – $340 · +7% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 26.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $15B | 26.8× | 17.7× | 35.5% | 12.4% | 38% |
| ESABESAB Corporation | $5B | 32.8× | 15.0× | 36.3% | 5.1% | 7% |
| SNASnap-on Incorporated | $18B | 18.3× | 12.4× | 51.2% | 20.0% | 17% |
| SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $17B | 20.7× | 12.5× | 33.8% | 5.5% | 9% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 26.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now26.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $125 a share — 56% below the $281.76 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $125 | 56% below $281.76 |
| Levered | $180 | 36% below $281.76 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.