Lennar Corporation LEN
Lennar's FY2025 results show severe margin compression — gross profit fell 38% to $3.39B on roughly flat revenue of $34.2B, EPS dropped 44% to $7.98, and free cash flow collapsed to $28M from $2.23B, while total debt rose 42% to $6.3B. The stock trades at a 53% P/S discount to peers (0.63x vs 1.35x median) and an 8.5% PE discount (13.0x vs 14.2x), which prices in substantial pessimism, but EV/EBITDA at 10.6x is actually in line with the peer median, suggesting the cheapness is justified by deteriorating returns.
With the stock below both its 50-day ($88.07) and 200-day ($104.86) moving averages, a bearish MACD, slightly negative smart money flows (-0.06), and net insider selling of $11.1M over 24 months, the burden of proof remains on visible margin stabilization before turning constructive, even with the newly passed housing affordability bill as a potential tailwind.
What could go wrong
- Margin non-recovery. FY2025 gross margin collapsed to ~9.9% from ~15.5% in FY2024; if price-cutting-for-volume strategy fails to stabilize margins, EPS could remain depressed and the valuation discount widens further.
- Balance sheet deterioration. Total debt rose 42% to $6.3B while equity fell 21% to $22.0B; FCF of just $28M limits financial flexibility if housing demand weakens further.
- Rising mortgage rates. Recent news (July 2026) indicates mortgage rates heading higher, which directly pressures affordability and could suppress order volumes despite the new housing affordability bill.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $82.90 is below both 50-day and 200-day MAs with RSI at 40 and negative MACD histogram; a break below recent lows could trigger further institutional selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024. Orin's read on LEN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All LEN filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 16 Sep | — | on file |
| 13G | 15 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 29 Jun | Lennar Corporation reported net earnings attributable to Lennar of $304.8 million ($1.24 per diluted share) for the three months ended May 31, 2026, a decrease from $477.4 million… | read |
| 8-K | 12 Jun | Lennar Corporation furnished an investor presentation dated June 2026 as Exhibit 99.1 to its Form 8-K filed on June 12, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 11 Jun | Lennar Corporation reported second quarter results for the period ended May 31, 2026, via press release on June 11, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 5 Jun | Lennar Corporation appointed Jim Parker Chief Operating Officer effective June 5, 2026. | read |
| 13G | 15 May | — | on file |
| 13G | 4 May | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $1.2B | 0.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Eagle Capital Management | $967.1M | 3.0% of fund |
| State Street | $943.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $863.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Manufacturers Life Insurance Company, The | $604.8M | 0.5% of fund |
94 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 73 Form 4 filings, net −$11.1M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LEN
Orin answers questions about LEN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.2× | 9.2× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.8× | 6.9× | — |
| P/S | 0.64× | 1.06× | — |
| P/B | 0.9× | 1.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.85σ from its own mean).
60.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$85
$67 – $108 · +6% against today's price
- 23 buy or overweight
- 18 hold
- 9 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LENLennar Corporation | $21B | 13.2× | 10.8× | 8.0% | 4.9% | 7% |
| CCLCarnival Corporation & plc | $32B | 10.2× | 7.8× | 34.4% | 11.2% | 24% |
| DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | $40B | 13.7× | 11.1× | 22.6% | 9.2% | 13% |
| NVRNVR, Inc. | $17B | 15.7× | 11.3× | 22.2% | 12.1% | 31% |
| PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $24B | 12.6× | 10.4× | 24.5% | 11.6% | 15% |
| ROLRollins, Inc. | $17B | 32.5× | 21.0× | 50.7% | 13.6% | 37% |
| TSCOTractor Supply Company | $18B | 18.0× | 12.8× | 32.5% | 6.4% | 39% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 10.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $137 | $90.40 · +52% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $104 | $90.40 · +15% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.