Lennar Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Lennar remains a hold as FY2025 fundamentals deteriorated sharply — gross margin compressed to 9.9% from 15.5% in FY2024, EPS fell 44.2% to $7.98, and total debt rose to $6.3B from $4.45B — yet Q3 FY2026 gross profit recovered sequentially to $1.33B from $490.5M in Q2 FY2026, hinting that margin pressures may be bottoming.
The stock at $78.65 trades at a 56% P/S discount to the peer median but a 12% P/E premium, reflecting the tension between deeply discounted revenue and still-declining top-line trends (Q3 FY2026 revenue -8.7% YoY). Berkshire Hathaway's reported accumulation and 24-month net insider buying of $592M provide support, but active securities fraud investigations, a negative smart money score of -0.02 as of Q2 2026, and the stock trading below both its 50-day ($81.48) and 200-day ($92.43) moving averages argue for patience until margin recovery is sustained across consecutive quarters.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalls. Q3 FY2026 sequential gross profit improvement to $1.33B may not persist; FY2025 full-year gross margin of 9.9% was less than half the FY2022 level of 21.4%, and revenue is still declining 8.7% YoY.
- Securities fraud investigations. Multiple law firms announced securities fraud investigations into Lennar in mid-October 2026, creating legal and reputational overhang that could pressure the stock regardless of fundamentals.
- Rising rates headwind. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September 2026 per recent news, directly pressuring homebuilder demand and affordability in an already weak housing market.
- Balance sheet deterioration. Total debt increased to $6.3B in FY2025 from $4.45B in FY2024 while FCF margin collapsed to 0.08% from 6.3%, limiting financial flexibility if housing remains weak.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · FY25 fundamentals · Q2–Q3 FY26 results · Q3 FY26 results. Orin's read on LEN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 34.3% over twelve months, from $128.72 on 27 Oct 2025 to $84.58 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $133.13 on 3 Dec 2025; the last close is 36.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 32.4M, on 20 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All LEN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Berkshire Hathaway | $1.2B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Eagle Capital Management | $967.1M | 3.0% |
| State Street | $943.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $863.9M | 0.0% |
| The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company | $604.8M | 0.5% |
| Geode Capital Management | $525.8M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $324.5M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $320.5M | 0.0% |
97 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 126 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $592.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 42 were open-market purchases and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LEN
Orin answers questions about LEN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 9.3×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.0×above usual | 9.3× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 0.63×below usual | 1.06× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.6×above usual | 6.5× | — |
| P/B | 0.9×below usual | 1.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $77.38 (from $63 to $108) — 9% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$77.38
$63 – $108 · −9% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 8 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 14.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LENLennar Corporation | $20B | 16.0× | 11.6× | 9.5% | 4.1% | 6% |
| DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | $41B | 14.0× | 11.3× | 22.6% | 9.2% | 13% |
| NVRNVR, Inc. | $16B | 15.2× | 11.0× | 21.3% | 11.2% | 30% |
| PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $23B | 12.9× | 10.6× | 24.1% | 11.2% | 14% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $132 a share — 58% above the $83.52 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $132 | 58% above $83.52 |
| Levered | $99 | 19% above $83.52 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.