Orin
LHXNYSE·Aerospace & Defense

L3Harris Technologies, Inc. LHX

Market cap $44.7BP/E 24.0× trailingGross margin 25.5%Reports Thu 29 Oct, after the close
$240.02
+0.81 (+0.34%)live 09:40 ET
52-wk $239.00 – $379.23
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Orin's take
0.72conviction · high
Refreshed 17 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

L3Harris remains a compelling way to play the defense rearmament cycle, with a record $42B backlog, Q2 2026 book-to-bill of 1.2x, revenue up 8% to $5.9B, and EPS up 28% to $3.13—prompting raised full-year guidance. The stock trades at an EV/EBITDA of 17.2, a 21.5% discount to the peer median of 21.9, while FCF has grown to $2.68B (FY2025) and total debt has been reduced from $13.95B (FY2023) to $11.25B (FY2025).

With MACD histogram turning positive and RSI neutral at 51.7 after recovering from oversold levels, technicals no longer work against the fundamental case.

What could go wrong

  • Insider net selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 50,661 shares worth $67.2M; recent acquisitions are mostly RSU grants (code A), not open-market purchases, and no cluster buy was detected.
  • PE premium to peers. LHX trades at 29.3x earnings vs. peer median of 27.8x—a 5.3% premium—despite the EV/EBITDA discount, which could limit multiple expansion.
  • Smart money conviction low. Smart money score is only 0.0259 as of March 2026, well below peak levels, though fund count has risen to 57 from 35 a year earlier.
  • Stock below key moving averages. Price of $291.82 sits below both the 50-day ($293.36) and 200-day ($315.95) MAs, indicating the prior downtrend has not fully reversed.

What would change my mind

Backlog conversion and margin expansion. FY2026 segment operating margins sustain above 16% with book-to-bill at or above 1.2x, confirming the record $42B backlog is translating into accelerated earnings growthbullish
Debt reduction trajectory. Total debt continues declining toward or below $10B, improving financial flexibility and supporting further capital returns or reinvestmentbullish
Defense budget or program cuts. DoD budget pressures or program cancellations (e.g., NGI, THAAD, PAC-3) reduce order flow and break the backlog growth trajectorybearish
Margin compression. Segment operating margins fall below 15% on fixed-cost absorption issues or contract mix deterioration, signaling the rearmament cycle is not translating into profitabilitybearish

Where this comes from: Business Wire Q2 2026 earnings release · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative comparison. Orin's read on LHX; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$3.5B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$2.8B0.1% of fund
State Street$2.6B0.1% of fund
Capital World Investors$1.9B0.2% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.5B0.1% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp$1.4B0.2% of fund

111 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 125 Form 4 filings, net −$64.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about LHX

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E24.0×32.5×44.5×
EV/EBITDA14.6×17.7×
P/S1.94×2.34×
P/B2.1×2.2×

Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.31σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

5.2%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

33 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$340

$315$365 · +42% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 24 buy or overweight
  • 7 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 24.9× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.$45B24.0×14.6×25.5%8.2%9%
AMEAMETEK, Inc.$56B35.9×24.1×36.6%20.0%15%
AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc.$36B181.5×85.3×59.4%6.2%6%
CARRCarrier Global Corporation$45B37.9×20.6×24.3%5.5%9%
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation$73B16.3×11.7×20.1%10.5%27%
PCARPACCAR Inc$59B23.5×19.1×14.9%9.2%13%
ROPRoper Technologies, Inc.$37B15.2×10.7×69.5%30.2%13%
URIUnited Rentals, Inc.$64B24.9×11.8×37.1%15.7%29%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 24.7×FY26 35.5×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$298$305.94 · −3%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$233$305.94 · −24%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $240.02
52-week range$239 – $379
Analyst targets$315 – $365
Standard DCF$298 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $305.94
Levered DCF$233 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $305.94
At own 5y-median P/E (33×)$324
At 5y P/E range (23–38×)$232 – $375
At sector P/E (45×)$443

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.