Lennox International Inc. LII
Lennox International remains in legal limbo with multiple securities fraud investigations by Pomerantz LLP and SBS Law announced throughout August 2026, and the stock has fallen further to $377.25 — roughly 22% below both its 50-day ($482.83) and 200-day ($499.40) moving averages as of 2026-09-01. However, the fundamental picture is stabilizing: Q2 2026 revenue grew 3.0% YoY to $1.55B with EPS of $7.72 beating estimates, Q1 2026 revenue grew 5.8% YoY, and at 17.0x trailing PE the stock trades at a 37.5% discount to the peer median of 27.2x.
With RSI at 26.5 (deeply oversold) and smart money scores improving to 0.0545 as of Q2 2026 from 0.004 a year earlier, the sell-off looks overdone, but the unresolved legal overhang and surging total debt to $2.06B (FY2025) from $1.49B (FY2024) warrant patience until the investigations clarify.
What could go wrong
- Securities fraud investigations. Pomerantz LLP and SBS Law announced multiple investigations in August 2026 into whether Lennox issued false or misleading statements; outcomes could include class-action settlements, restatements, or management turnover.
- Leverage deterioration. Total debt surged to $2.06B in FY2025 from $1.49B in FY2024 while FCF declined to $639M from $782M, constraining financial flexibility.
- Revenue and earnings decline. FY2025 revenue fell 2.7% YoY to $5.20B and EPS declined 1.4% to $22.22, reversing the strong growth seen in FY2024 when EPS grew 36.4%.
- Persistent downtrend. Stock at $377.25 trades well below both MA 50 ($482.83) and MA 200 ($499.40) as of 2026-09-01, indicating sustained selling pressure despite oversold RSI of 26.5.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Technicals as of 2026-09-01 · Quarterly results Q2 2026; Earnings surprises · Quarterly results Q1 2026; Earnings surprises · Peer relative. Orin's read on LII; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All LII filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Viking Global Investors | $911.5M | 2.6% of fund |
| State Street | $852.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $811.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $580.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $492.8M | 0.0% of fund |
76 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 143 Form 4 filings, net −$23.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LII
Orin answers questions about LII from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.8× | 26.0× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.1× | 19.7× | — |
| P/S | 2.43× | 3.19× | — |
| P/B | 10.0× | — | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.81σ from its own mean).
7.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$530
$375 – $650 · +42% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIILennox International Inc. | $13B | 16.8× | 13.1× | 33.1% | 14.6% | 65% |
| ACMAecom | $8B | 27.8× | — | 5.7% | 1.9% | 13% |
| BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc. | $6B | 64.3× | 11.2× | 29.2% | 0.7% | 2% |
| CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $18B | 28.2× | 19.5× | 10.1% | 3.7% | 36% |
| CSLCarlisle Companies Incorporated | $13B | 18.5× | 12.3× | 35.3% | 14.2% | 41% |
| EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $25B | 27.3× | 19.2× | 23.9% | 7.6% | 41% |
| MASMasco Corporation | $13B | 15.7× | 11.0× | 36.9% | 11.6% | -406% |
| PNRPentair plc | $9B | 13.8× | 11.3× | 41.3% | 16.2% | 17% |
| SNASnap-on Incorporated | $19B | 18.6× | 12.5× | 51.2% | 20.4% | 17% |
| WSOWatsco, Inc. | $13B | 28.1× | 18.4× | 27.9% | 6.5% | 17% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 38.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $366 | $514.98 · −29% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $342 | $514.98 · −34% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.