Orin
LINENasdaq·REIT - Industrial

Lineage, Inc. LINE

Market cap $8.1BP/E —no earnings to divide byGross margin 11.0%
$35.73
−0.45 (−1.24%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $31.33 – $45.75
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 21 Aug · take v3. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Lineage remains a hold after Q2 2026 results beat consensus (FFO $0.76 vs. $0.71 estimate; revenue up 0.8% to $1,361M) on improving warehouse occupancy and cost controls, but the structural picture is still unresolved. Full-year 2025 gross margin collapsed to 15.42% from 33.0% in 2024 on essentially flat revenue, GAAP net income has been negative every year from 2021–2025, and adjusted EBITDA fell 1.8% to $320M with margin compressing 60bps to 23.5% in the latest quarter.

The stock trades at a steep discount to industrial REIT peers (1.77x P/S vs. 8.72x median; 12.85x EV/EBITDA vs. 18.33x median), and the CFO's open-market purchase of 20,000 shares at $41.33 on August 7, 2026 is a constructive insider signal, but until the gross-margin trajectory stabilizes the discount looks like a value trap rather than an opportunity.

What could go wrong

  • Gross margin structural decline. Gross margin fell from 33.0% in 2024 to 15.42% in 2025 on flat revenue ($5.34B to $5.36B), suggesting a fundamental cost or pricing problem in the cold-storage warehouse business that may not reverse quickly.
  • Persistent GAAP losses. Net income has been negative every year from 2021 through 2025, with EPS of -$0.43 in 2025 and -$3.70 in 2024, making it difficult to justify a re-rating absent a clear path to profitability.
  • Leverage and capital intensity. Total debt stood at $8.66B against stockholders' equity of $8.25B as of FY2025, and capex of $747M consumed most of operating cash flow ($943M), leaving only $196M in free cash flow.
  • Trade-related volume pressure. Q2 2026 news highlighted continued trade-related volume pressure; further tariff or supply-chain disruption could suppress warehouse occupancy and revenue recovery.

What would change my mind

Gross margin recovery. Gross margin returns above 25% for a full quarter, indicating the 2025 collapse was transitorybullish
AFFO stabilization or growth. AFFO grows year-over-year for two consecutive quarters after declining 6.2% in Q2 2026bullish
Further margin compression. Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 22% or gross margin deteriorates further from the 15.42% FY2025 levelbearish
Insider selling acceleration. Senior insiders execute multiple open-market dispositions at scale, reversing the CFO's August 2026 purchase signalbearish

Where this comes from: Zacks via news article, 2026-08-05 · Business Wire Q2 2026 press release, 2026-08-05 · FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2021–FY2025. Orin's read on LINE; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Norges Bank$601.9M0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$248.0M0.0% of fund
Aqr Capital Management$202.1M0.1% of fund
Bank Of America /De/$156.0M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$127.9M0.0% of fund
State Street$83.2M0.0% of fund

55 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 88 Form 4 filings, net $9.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 8 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Real Estate
MetricNowOwn medianSector
EV/EBITDA11.9×——
P/S1.53×——
P/B1.0×——
What the price assumes

17.8%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

16 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$45

$35 – $53 · +25% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 5 buy or overweight
  • 8 hold
  • 3 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 24.0× of 4 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
LINELineage, Inc.$8B—11.9×11.0%-3.1%-2%
CUBECubeSmart$9B25.8×17.1×17.4%29.4%12%
EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.$11B35.5×22.5×44.2%40.5%9%
FRFirst Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.$8B22.3×15.6×47.7%48.0%13%
FRTFederal Realty Investment Trust$10B22.0×14.0×54.0%32.7%13%
REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc.$9B——61.0%-39.7%-5%

The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

What its sector has traded at

Real Estate
FY14 44.0×FY26 52.3×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $35.73
52-week range$31 – $46
Analyst targets$35 – $53

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.