Lineage, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Lineage is a buy at $36.15, trading at a deep discount to industrial REIT peers on P/S (1.53x vs. 8.82x median) and EV/EBITDA (11.92x vs. 17.16x median), with Q2 2026 gross profit recovering to $425M from Q1 2026's depressed $184M and Q4 2025's anomalous negative $465M.
Open-market purchases by the CFO at $41.33 (August 7, 2026) and the Co-Executive Chairman at $39.50 (August 28, 2026) — both above the current price — signal insider conviction, while an RSI of 31.4 marks the stock as oversold. The thesis depends on Q2's gross-profit normalization holding; persistent net losses (every year 2021–2025 and through Q2 2026) and total debt of $8.657B at FY2025 end keep this a high-conviction call only if the margin recovery is real, not a one-quarter reprieve.
What could go wrong
- Gross-margin volatility. Q4 2025 gross profit was negative $465M and Q1 2026 fell to $184M, showing the metric can swing dramatically; another anomalous quarter would invalidate the stabilization thesis.
- Persistent unprofitability. Net income has been negative every fiscal year from 2021 through 2025, and Q1–Q2 2026 EPS remained negative at -$0.18 and -$0.13 respectively.
- High leverage. Total debt stood at $8.657B at FY2025 year-end against stockholders' equity of $8.246B, limiting financial flexibility.
- Stagnant revenue growth. FY2025 revenue grew only 0.28% year-over-year and Q2 2026 revenue grew 0.8% YoY, providing little top-line cushion for margin recovery.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · peer comparison · insider trades · technicals, 25 Sep. Orin's read on LINE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 15.2% over twelve months, from $41.70 on 27 Oct 2025 to $35.38 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $45.10 on 29 Jun 2026; the last close is 21.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.8M, on 29 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All LINE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Norges Bank | $601.9M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $248.0M | 0.0% |
| BlackRock | $227.5M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $202.1M | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $156.0M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $127.9M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $83.2M | 0.0% |
| Darlington Partners Capital Management | $66.3M | 2.9% |
| Geode Capital Management | $60.6M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $48.0M | 0.0% |
57 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 88 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $10.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LINE
Orin answers questions about LINE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 1.50× its yearly sales. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 37.0× |
| P/S | 1.50× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.0× | — | — |
- Listed on 25 Jul 2024 — earlier years are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $42.25 (from $35 to $48) — 19% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$42.25
$35 – $48 · +19% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 24.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LINELineage, Inc. | $8B | lost money | 11.8× | n/a | −3.1% | −2% |
| CUBECubeSmart | $9B | 27.8× | 18.0× | n/a | 29.4% | 12% |
| EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc. | $11B | 33.4× | 21.6× | n/a | 41.0% | 9% |
| FRFirst Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. | $7B | 20.4× | 14.2× | n/a | 46.1% | 13% |
| FRTFederal Realty Investment Trust | $10B | 21.9× | 14.0× | n/a | 32.7% | 13% |
| REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | $9B | lost money | — | n/a | −47.8% | −6% |
- REXR: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- LINE, CUBE, EGP, FR, FRT, REXR: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 37.0× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now37.0×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $15 a share — 58% below the $35.76 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Levered | $15 | 58% below $35.76 |
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.