Eli Lilly and Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Eli Lilly's hypergrowth remains intact: Q2 2026 revenue of $22.97B grew 47.7% YoY and Q1 2026 revenue of $19.80B grew 55.5% YoY, while FY2025 operating margin expanded to 45.6% with EPS of $22.95 — up roughly 96% — and the company has beaten EPS estimates by 22.7%–30.9% in each of the last two quarters.
At a P/E of 42.06x, LLY trades only 7.6% above the peer median of 39.09x despite growth that dwarfs every large-cap pharma peer, and the pipeline continues to deliver with positive Omvoh data in ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease announced October 15, 2026. The stock is technically extended with RSI at 68.56 and persistent insider selling (net -4.08M shares over 24 months), but the combination of expanding margins, consistent earnings beats, and a modest P/E premium to peers supports continued accumulation.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. P/S of 14.85x is 142% above the peer median of 6.13x, leaving little room for any growth disappointment to reset the multiple.
- Technical overextension. RSI at 68.56 and price of $1,257 sitting well above the 50-day MA of $1,180 and 200-day MA of $1,080 increase near-term pullback risk.
- Insider selling. Net insider dispositions of 4.08M shares valued at $3.74B over 24 months, including a 6,500-share sale by EVP Jonsson at $1,175 on August 17, 2026.
- Q3 2026 earnings risk. Results announced October 29, 2026; any deceleration from the 47.7% Q2 revenue growth pace could trigger a sharp repricing given elevated expectations.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · Q1 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates. Orin's read on LLY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 55.1% over twelve months, from $826.41 on 27 Oct 2025 to $1,281.91 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $1,306.69 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 1.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.2M, on 30 Apr 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All LLY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $81.0B | 1.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $64.2B | 1.4% |
| State Street | $43.4B | 1.3% |
| FMR | $34.1B | 1.5% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $25.0B | 3.5% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $25.0B | 1.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $24.3B | 1.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $19.5B | 1.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $19.1B | 2.3% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $16.7B | 1.7% |
224 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 532 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$3.7B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LLY
Orin answers questions about LLY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 42.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 55.7×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 42.9×below usual | 55.7× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 15.1×near usual | 14.8× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.9×below usual | 38.6× | — |
| P/B | 33.8×below usual | 36.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $1,359 (from $940 to $1,500) — 6% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$1,359
$940 – $1,500 · +6% against the last close
- 19 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 42.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 40.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly and Company | $1.21T | 42.9× | 28.9× | 83.4% | 33.5% | 93% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | $506B | 80.7× | 26.9× | 71.5% | 9.8% | n/m |
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | $242B | 27.6× | 16.2× | 72.7% | 22.9% | 89% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | $647B | 40.7× | 21.9× | 68.8% | 16.2% | 20% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $350B | 113× | 28.5× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $170B | 39.4× | 17.2× | 73.2% | 6.8% | 5% |
- ABBV: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 42.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now42.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $704 a share — 45% below the $1,281.77 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $704 | 45% below $1,281.77 |
| Levered | $668 | 48% below $1,281.77 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.