Eli Lilly and Company LLY
Eli Lilly's FY2025 results are extraordinary — revenue of $65.2B (up 44.7% YoY), EPS of $22.95 (up ~96% YoY), and an FCF inflection to $8.97B from just $414M in FY2024 — but the stock at $1,280 trades at 42.9x trailing earnings and 15.1x sales, a 146% premium to the peer-median P/S, pricing in continued hypergrowth with little room for error. Smart money has turned sharply positive (score 0.6733 as of Q2 2026 vs. -0.2971 in Q1 2026) and technicals are strong (above both 50-day and 200-day MAs with positive MACD), yet persistent insider selling (net -4.04M shares over 24 months) and an RSI near 65 suggest the near-term risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 15.1x sales vs. peer median 6.1x (146% premium) and 42.9x PE vs. 34.5x median, any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider disposition of 4.04M shares worth ~$79.5B over 24 months, with recent August 2026 executive sales continuing the pattern.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $42.5B against stockholders' equity of $26.5B as of FY2025 leaves limited balance-sheet cushion if GLP-1 demand or pricing softens.
- Technical overbought risk. RSI at 64.9 with the stock trading 9% above its 50-day MA ($1,280 vs. $1,175) increases vulnerability to a mean-reversion pullback.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 and FY2024 · peer_relative table. Orin's read on LLY; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All LLY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $64.2B | 1.4% of fund |
| State Street | $43.4B | 1.3% of fund |
| Fmr | $34.1B | 1.5% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $25.0B | 3.5% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $25.0B | 1.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $24.3B | 1.3% of fund |
222 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 528 Form 4 filings, net −$79.5B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LLY
Orin answers questions about LLY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 38.6× | 55.7× | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.1× | 41.8× | — |
| P/S | 13.63× | 14.81× | — |
| P/B | 30.4× | 36.4× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.24σ from its own mean).
32.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $9.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$1343
$940 – $1500 · +17% against today's price
- 33 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly and Company | $1.09T | 38.6× | 26.1× | 83.4% | 33.5% | 93% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | $469B | 74.7× | 25.1× | 71.5% | 9.8% | -136% |
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | $219B | 25.0× | 15.9× | 72.7% | 22.9% | 89% |
| GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | $188B | — | 331.4× | 79.6% | -10.6% | -16% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | $649B | 31.1× | 20.1× | 67.9% | 21.5% | 26% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $366B | 117.5× | 29.8× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $161B | 37.2× | 17.6× | 71.3% | 6.8% | 5% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $489 | $1135.07 · −57% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $647 | $1135.07 · −43% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.