Lockheed Martin Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
LMT's Q2 2026 results showed meaningful improvement, with revenue accelerating to $20.1B (+10.5% YoY) and EPS of $7.94 beating estimates by ~10%, while the $230B backlog — growing in the high-margin Missiles and Fire Control segment — underpins multi-year revenue visibility.
However, FY2025 net income declined for a second consecutive year to $5.0B (-6.0% YoY), gross margin compressed to 10.2% from 12.6% in FY2023, and total debt of $21.7B against just $6.7B of equity remains a structural concern. At 20.1x P/E, an 18% discount to the peer median of 24.5x, the stock is reasonably valued but not deeply cheap, and the MACD bullish crossover with the stock above its 50-day MA ($542) but still below its 200-day ($565) suggests a recovery in progress rather than confirmed. Q3 2026 earnings, due imminently, will determine whether Q2's margin recovery is sustained.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 gross margin fell to 10.2% from 12.6% in FY2023 and 13.5% in FY2021; if Q2 2026's improvement does not hold, earnings could continue to decline.
- High leverage. Total debt of $21.7B against stockholders' equity of $6.7B as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility and amplifies downside in a budget-cut or rate shock scenario.
- Insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders recorded 0 open-market acquisitions and 24 dispositions for net shares of -23,646 and net value of -$3.95M, with no cluster buying.
- Earnings inconsistency. Q4 2025 EPS missed by ~18% and Q1 2026 missed by ~4.5%, making the Q2 beat less reliable as a trend signal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · news, 17 Oct. Orin's read on LMT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 27.9% over twelve months, from $486.91 on 27 Oct 2025 to $622.99 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $676.70 on 2 Mar 2026; the last close is 7.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 6.5M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All LMT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $16.8B | 0.5% |
| BlackRock | $9.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $7.2B | 0.2% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $4.0B | 0.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.9B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.8B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Northern Trust | $999.1M | 0.1% |
152 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 157 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$4.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 22 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LMT
Orin answers questions about LMT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 21.7×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.0×near usual | 21.7× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.82×above usual | 1.63× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.1×near usual | 14.8× | — |
| P/B | 14.3×below usual | 16.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $638 (from $560 to $835) — 2% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$638
$560 – $835 · +2% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | $144B | 22.0× | 15.1× | 11.7% | 8.2% | 79% |
| BAThe Boeing Company | $133B | 17.6× | 14.1× | 9.4% | 8.1% | 127% |
| GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation | $96B | 21.3× | 15.1× | 15.4% | 8.2% | 17% |
| LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $48B | 26.0× | 14.5× | 25.5% | 8.2% | 9% |
| NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation | $78B | 17.4× | 12.3× | 20.0% | 10.4% | 26% |
| RTXRTX Corporation | $263B | 31.2× | 17.4× | 21.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $750 a share — 19% above the $628.99 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $750 | 19% above $628.99 |
| Levered | $815 | 30% above $628.99 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.