Alliant Energy Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Alliant Energy remains a hold at $68.32 (as of 16 Oct) after a sharp rebound off its October 3 52-week low of $62.54, with the stock now back above its 50-day moving average ($67.01) and RSI at 64 — but still below the 200-day ($70.35) and carrying a peer-group valuation premium (21.55x P/E and 14.41x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 20.72x and 12.79x).
The fundamental story is intact: FY2025 revenue grew 9.6% to $4.362B, diluted EPS rose 16.7% to $3.14, Q2 2026 EPS of $0.65 beat estimates by 12.3%, and the $13.4B capex plan through 2029 targets 5–7% earnings growth on data-center-driven demand. But free cash flow was -$1.314B in FY2025, total debt climbed to $12.346B from $10.406B, and gross margin compressed from 44.7% to 40.1%, so the premium multiple is not yet earned on cash generation. The Q3 2026 earnings release on October 29 is the near-term catalyst that could break the stock either way.
What could go wrong
- Persistent negative free cash flow and rising leverage. FY2025 free cash flow was -$1.314B with capex of $2.483B against $1.169B operating cash flow, and total debt rose to $12.346B from $10.406B a year earlier; the $13.4B investment plan extends the external-financing dependence.
- Valuation premium to peers. LNT trades at 21.55x P/E, 4.00x sales, and 14.41x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 20.72x, 3.26x, and 12.79x — a 22.6% premium on sales and 12.6% on EV/EBITDA — leaving little cushion if growth disappoints.
- Margin compression. Gross margin fell from 44.7% in FY2024 to 40.1% in FY2025 even as revenue grew 9.6%, and Q2 2026 gross profit of $438M on $971M revenue suggests cost pressures persist into 2026.
- Data-center demand may not materialize on schedule. The bull case leans on a projected load increase from data center projects in the service area; delays or contract slippage would undermine the 5–7% earnings growth target supporting the premium multiple.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 16 Oct · news, 3 Oct · fundamentals, to 31 Dec 2025 · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on LNT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 1.7% over twelve months, from $68.86 on 27 Oct 2025 to $70.04 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $78.03 on 2 Jul 2026; the last close is 10.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.9M, on 26 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All LNT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.9B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $878.5M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $563.0M | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $533.8M | 0.2% |
| Bank of America | $425.9M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $384.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $374.8M | 0.0% |
87 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 74 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$7. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LNT
Orin answers questions about LNT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 20.6×); the typical Utilities company on the NASDAQ is at 28.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.1×above usual | 20.6× | 28.1× |
| P/S | 4.10×above usual | 3.81× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.6×near usual | 14.1× | — |
| P/B | 2.4×above usual | 2.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $73.07 (from $68 to $75) — 4% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$73.07
$68 – $75 · +4% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 9 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $18B | 22.1× | 14.6× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $22B | 24.2× | 13.6× | 77.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $28B | 30.9× | 7.4× | 37.2% | 5.5% | 7% |
| ESEversource Energy | $27B | 18.6× | 10.2× | 35.2% | 10.4% | 9% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $52B | 27.4× | 14.5× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| EVRGEvergy, Inc. | $20B | 19.0× | 12.0× | 50.0% | 16.7% | 10% |
| IDAIDACORP, Inc. | $8B | 22.8× | 14.7× | 21.7% | 18.8% | 9% |
| MGEEMGE Energy, Inc. | $3B | 18.1× | 12.5× | 49.0% | 20.6% | 12% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $49B | 21.3× | 13.3× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 28.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now28.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.