Alliant Energy Corporation LNT
Alliant Energy remains a hold: FY2025 EPS grew 16.7% to $3.14 on 9.6% revenue growth to $4.36B and management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $3.36–$3.46 trending in the upper half, supported by rate increases in Iowa and Wisconsin and data-center demand. However, Q2 2026 EPS of $0.65 missed estimates and declined from $0.68 a year ago, gross margin compressed from 44.7% to 40.1% as gross profit fell from $1.78B to $1.75B despite higher revenue, total debt surged 18.6% to $12.35B, and free cash flow worsened to -$1.31B.
At 22.2x trailing earnings—a 57% premium to the peer median of 14.1x—and trading below the 50-day MA of $73.50, the stock prices in growth that is showing early signs of margin strain, but the reaffirmed guidance and stabilizing technicals near the 200-day MA of $70.35 argue against an exit.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet deterioration. Total debt rose 18.6% to $12.35B in FY2025 while free cash flow worsened to -$1.31B, raising financing-cost risk if rates stay elevated.
- Margin compression. Gross margin contracted from 44.7% to 40.1% as gross profit fell from $1.78B to $1.75B despite 9.6% revenue growth, signaling cost pressure outpacing rate increases.
- Valuation premium. LNT trades at 22.2x earnings, 57% above the peer median of 14.1x, and 4.1x sales vs a 2.75x peer median, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Earnings estimate misses. Q2 2026 EPS of $0.65 missed the $0.66 consensus and declined from $0.68 a year ago, suggesting cost pressures may persist into H2.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2024–FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 annual · Business Wire Q2 2026 results, 2026-07-30. Orin's read on LNT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All LNT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Brasada Capital Management | $6.5B | 1.2% of fund |
| State Street | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $878.5M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $563.0M | 0.0% of fund |
84 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 66 Form 4 filings, net −$5.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LNT
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.0× | 20.6× | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.7× | 14.1× | — |
| P/S | 3.69× | 3.81× | — |
| P/B | 2.2× | 2.2× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.56σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$77
$74 – $83 · +23% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $16B | 20.0× | 13.7× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $20B | 18.6× | 12.4× | 69.7% | 11.6% | 11% |
| EIXEdison International | $20B | 5.4× | 8.1× | 39.9% | 19.8% | 22% |
| EVRGEvergy, Inc. | $18B | 19.3× | 12.2× | 40.1% | 15.3% | 9% |
| FRMIFermi Inc. Common Stock | $3B | — | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | -79% |
| NINiSource Inc. | $19B | 20.6× | 11.3× | 50.8% | 13.2% | 10% |
| OKLOOklo Inc. | $7B | — | — | 26.9% | -12625.5% | -7% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 5.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $3 | $73.45 · −97% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-69 | $73.45 · −194% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.