Lowe's Companies, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Lowe's remains a buy at $197.38 with revenue acceleration intact — Q1 and Q2 FY2026 grew 10.3% and 8.3% YoY respectively, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in eight consecutive quarters including the latest $4.40 actual versus $4.22 estimate.
The stock trades at 16.7x P/E versus a peer median of 26.6x and 11.7x EV/EBITDA versus 13.6x, a discount that more than prices in operating margin compression from 13.4% to 11.8% over two fiscal years. MACD histogram turned positive at +2.17 and RSI at 58.4 signals room to run without being overbought, though the stock still sits 14% below its 200-day MA of $228.78, leaving recovery runway if housing-cycle sentiment improves.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Operating margin fell from 13.4% in FY2023 to 11.8% in FY2025 while net income declined 4.4% YoY; if revenue growth fails to offset further compression, EPS estimates may come down.
- High leverage with negative equity. Total debt of $44.7B against negative stockholders' equity of -$9.9B as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to interest rate movements.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 148,970 shares worth $38.5M with only 1 open-market acquisition; recent transactions are mostly phantom stock grants, not meaningful buying.
- Housing market stagnation. Recent commentary highlights a frozen housing market that could test Lowe's dividend growth streak and suppress big-ticket discretionary spending.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · fundamentals. Orin's read on LOW; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 18.7% over twelve months, from $243.65 on 27 Oct 2025 to $198.18 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $287.39 on 13 Feb 2026; the last close is 31.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.7M, on 19 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All LOW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $8.9B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $8.2B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.1B | 0.2% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $8.0B | 0.4% |
| State Street | $5.6B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.2B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.1B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Wells Fargo | $1.8B | 0.3% |
| Bank of America | $1.8B | 0.1% |
136 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 172 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$38.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LOW
Orin answers questions about LOW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 20.4×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.7×below usual | 20.4× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 1.23×below usual | 1.72× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.7×below usual | 13.8× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $240 (from $190 to $276) — 21% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$240
$190 – $276 · +21% against the last close
- 16 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 26.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOWLowe's Companies, Inc. | $111B | 16.7× | 11.7× | 33.1% | 7.3% | n/m |
| HDThe Home Depot, Inc. | $318B | 22.2× | 14.8× | 33.2% | 8.4% | 103% |
| HLMNHillman Solutions Corp. | $1B | 33.5× | 8.5× | 45.8% | 2.6% | 3% |
| SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company | $79B | 29.7× | 20.2× | 48.7% | 10.7% | 27% |
| SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $17B | 20.7× | 12.5× | 33.8% | 5.5% | 9% |
- LOW: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $146 a share — 26% below the $197.45 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $146 | 26% below $197.45 |
| Levered | $114 | 42% below $197.45 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.