Landstar System, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Landstar's Q2 2026 revenue surged 17.9% YoY (as of the quarter ended 27 Jun), pointing to a freight-cycle inflection, but FY2025 gross margin of 13.1% versus 20.2% in FY2024 has not yet stabilized across consecutive quarters and the stock's 42.79x trailing P/E — a 51.1% premium to the peer median of 28.33x — prices in a margin recovery the quarterly data only partially confirms.
Technically oversold at an RSI of 29.17 and trading at $163.77, well below the $218.17 and $221.28 levels where insiders sold in June 2026, the stock has downside cushion and institutional fund count rose to 54 as of 30 Jun from 41 a year earlier. Hold until gross-margin recovery is visible across two consecutive quarters.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 gross margin of 13.1% (vs 20.2% in FY2024) and operating margin of 3.6% reflect a deeply troughed freight cycle; if Q3 2026 does not show sequential margin expansion, the recovery thesis stalls.
- Valuation premium vulnerable. At 42.79x trailing P/E versus a peer median of 28.33x (+51.1%), any earnings disappointment amplifies downside; Q2 2026 EPS of $1.44 already missed the $1.49 estimate.
- Insider selling at higher prices. The CFO sold 1,200 shares at $218.17 and a director sold 11,246 shares at $221.28 in June 2026; net insider value over 24 months is -$6.29M despite a positive net share count of 21,438.
- Cycle re-softening. Q1 2026 revenue grew only 1.3% YoY; if Q3 2026 growth reverts toward that pace rather than sustaining the Q2 17.9% rebound, the recovery narrative weakens.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 FY26 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · technicals, 25 Sep. Orin's read on LSTR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 30.3% over twelve months, from $129.57 on 27 Oct 2025 to $168.78 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $225.37 on 8 Jun 2026; the last close is 25.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.0M, on 12 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All LSTR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $698.7M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $439.0M | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $371.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $317.8M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $236.2M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $204.5M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $144.5M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $125.6M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $108.8M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $105.5M | 0.0% |
75 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 58 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LSTR
Orin answers questions about LSTR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 35.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 26.3×); the typical Industrials company on the NASDAQ is at 18.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 35.8×above usual | 26.3× | 18.4× |
| P/S | 1.08×near usual | 1.07× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.0×above usual | 16.6× | — |
| P/B | 6.8×near usual | 6.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $200 (from $175 to $230) — 19% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$200
$175 – $230 · +19% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 35.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 40.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSTRLandstar System, Inc. | $6B | 35.8× | 22.0× | 17.7% | 3.0% | 19% |
| ARCBArcBest Corp | $3B | 104× | 14.4× | 77.5% | 0.7% | 2% |
| CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $17B | 27.0× | 18.4× | 10.1% | 3.7% | 36% |
| HUBGHub Group, Inc. | $2B | 30.5× | 11.9× | 43.6% | 2.9% | 3% |
| JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $22B | 32.6× | 13.9× | 15.0% | 5.1% | 19% |
| KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | $10B | 66.3× | 11.1× | 25.3% | 1.9% | 2% |
| SNDRSchneider National, Inc. | $5B | 48.6× | 8.9× | 13.8% | 1.9% | 4% |
| WERNWerner Enterprises, Inc. | $2B | lost money | 5.9× | 19.7% | −0.6% | −1% |
- WERN: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- LSTR: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 35.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now35.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $95 a share — 43% below the $167.95 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $95 | 43% below $167.95 |
| Levered | $96 | 43% below $167.95 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.