Landstar System, Inc. LSTR
Landstar's FY2025 results (as of the fiscal year ended 2025-12-27) show the freight downturn at its trough — gross margin compressed to 13.1% from 20.2% in FY2024 and EPS fell to $3.31 from $5.51, yet the stock trades at 50.1x trailing earnings, a 20.2% premium to the peer median P/E of 41.7x, pricing in a recovery that the annual data does not yet confirm. Smart money is gradually rotating in (fund count rose to 54 as of Q2 2026 from 41 a year earlier) and recent news references a Q2 2026 earnings and revenue rebound, but insider selling by the CFO at $218.17 and a director at $221.28 in June 2026 tempers enthusiasm.
With the stock caught between its 50-day MA at $201.99 and 200-day MA at $168.18, hold until quarterly margin stabilization is visible across consecutive periods.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persistence. FY2025 gross margin of 13.1% is roughly half the 20.2–21.3% range seen in FY2022–FY2024; if insurance and claims costs keep pressuring margins, the recovery thesis fails.
- Valuation premium on depressed earnings. At 50.1x trailing P/E versus a peer median of 41.7x, LSTR carries a 20.2% premium despite EPS collapsing from $11.76 in FY2022 to $3.31 in FY2025 — any disappointment in the rebound narrative could trigger de-rating.
- Insider distribution. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net value is -$6.29M with 26 dispositions against 35 acquisitions; the CFO and a director sold shares in June 2026 at prices above $218.
- Freight cycle relapse. Revenue has declined for three consecutive years (from $7.44B in FY2022 to $4.74B in FY2025); a renewed downturn in truckload rates or load volumes would extend the earnings slide.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2022 annual · peer_relative · peer_relative. Orin's read on LSTR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All LSTR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Aqr Capital Management | $439.0M | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $371.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $317.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $236.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $204.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Northern Trust | $144.5M | 0.0% of fund |
73 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 61 Form 4 filings, net −$6.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LSTR
Orin answers questions about LSTR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 43.3× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.7× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.14× | — | — |
| P/B | 6.8× | — | — |
11.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$203
$181 – $240 · +22% against today's price
- 4 buy or overweight
- 26 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSTRLandstar System, Inc. | $6B | 43.3× | 22.7× | 15.4% | 2.6% | 16% |
| AGXArgan, Inc. | $5B | 29.1× | 22.4× | 20.9% | 15.1% | 39% |
| CSWCSW Industrials, Inc. | $5B | 40.5× | 20.1× | 42.4% | 10.3% | 11% |
| ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc. | $6B | 23.1× | 16.0× | 13.0% | 6.0% | 38% |
| FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4B | 27.5× | 16.3× | 35.5% | 7.1% | 12% |
| GVAGranite Construction Incorporated | $5B | — | 30.4× | 15.6% | -3.3% | -16% |
| POWLPowell Industries, Inc. | $7B | 36.7× | 25.7× | 30.1% | 16.5% | 28% |
| SNDRSchneider National, Inc. | $6B | 50.3× | 9.2× | 13.8% | 1.9% | 4% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 31.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.