Las Vegas Sands Corp.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
LVS is a contrarian buy at $35.81 with RSI at 19.0 — an extreme oversold reading — after the market overreacted to a soft Q2 2026 in which revenue went flat at $3.15B (-0.66% YoY) following a strong Q1 that grew 25.3% YoY.
The stock trades at 13.9x PE and 7.6x EV/EBITDA, a 20% and 47% discount to peer medians of 17.3x and 14.2x respectively, while FY2025 fundamentals were solid with $13.0B revenue, 23.7% operating margin, and $1.78B of free cash flow. The macro risk is real — $16.1B of total debt against just $1.59B of equity and 24-month net insider selling of $339M — but robust FCF generation and the deeply oversold technical condition suggest asymmetric upside if Q2 proves transitory.
What could go wrong
- Macau recovery stalling. Q2 2026 revenue went flat YoY at $3.15B after Q1 grew 25.3% YoY; if Q3 2026 confirms a structural deceleration rather than a transient soft patch, the recovery narrative breaks.
- High leverage. Total debt of $16.1B against stockholders' equity of only $1.59B as of FY2025, with equity declining from $4.12B in FY2023 — a highly leveraged balance sheet vulnerable to revenue downturns.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider disposition of 5.28M shares worth $339M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions, suggesting those closest to the company are not adding at these levels.
- Downtrend momentum. Stock trades 17% below its 50-day MA of $43.20 and 30% below its 200-day MA of $51.26 with MACD histogram still negative at -0.18, indicating the sell-off may not be exhausted.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 7 Oct · Q1–Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on LVS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 39.2% over twelve months, from $59.44 on 27 Oct 2025 to $36.12 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $69.49 on 1 Dec 2025; the last close is 48.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 18.1M, on 29 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All LVS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $898.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $861.2M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $700.2M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $516.6M | 0.1% |
| D. E. Shaw | $418.1M | 0.2% |
| Invesco | $408.8M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $377.5M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $305.5M | 0.1% |
| AQR Capital Management | $267.5M | 0.1% |
87 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 136 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$338.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LVS
Orin answers questions about LVS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 14.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 26.9×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.7×below usual | 26.9× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 1.72×below usual | 3.62× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0× | — | — |
| P/B | below zero | 13.1× | — |
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 11.8× to 171× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $49.67 (from $40 to $62) — 38% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$49.67
$40 – $62 · +38% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 14.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (MGM 16.8×, WYNN 21.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. | $23B | 14.7× | 8.0× | 49.9% | 12.0% | n/m |
| MGMMGM Resorts International | $7B | 16.8× | 17.3× | 44.2% | 2.4% | 17% |
| WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited | $8B | 21.6× | 12.5× | 28.9% | 5.6% | n/m |
- LVS, WYNN: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 14.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now14.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $68 a share — 88% above the $36.03 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $68 | 88% above $36.03 |
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.