LyondellBasell Industries N.V. LYB
LyondellBasell's Q2 2026 beat — described by analysts as upbeat with boosted forecasts — confirms the cyclical bottom following FY2025's severe trough (operating loss of $327M, net loss of $743M, revenue down 25.2% YoY to $30.15B). At $64.73 the stock trades at just 0.67x sales versus a peer median of 1.96x — a roughly 66% discount — while sitting above both its 50-day ($59.69) and 200-day ($59.06) moving averages with a positive MACD histogram as of 2026-08-17.
The Q2 earnings call highlighted Middle East polyethylene outages that may support margins beyond the near term, and institutional fund count has risen from 50 to 63 over five quarters through Q2 2026, suggesting smart money is accumulating alongside the supply-reset narrative.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet deterioration. Total debt surged to $15.96B in FY2025 from $12.92B in FY2024 while stockholders' equity fell to $10.08B from $12.46B, increasing leverage risk if the recovery stalls.
- Margin recovery fragility. Gross margin collapsed from 19.0% in 2021 to 9.0% in 2025; any delay in supply tightening or weaker-than-expected demand could prolong operating losses.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 645,775 shares for $29.9M, with 99 dispositions versus 59 acquisitions, though recent transactions are primarily code F tax-withholding.
- EV/EBITDA premium to peers. EV/EBITDA of 17.2x sits 20% above the peer median of 14.3x, suggesting the market has already begun pricing in the EBITDA recovery.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 revenue_growth_yoy · peer_relative as of latest · technicals as of 2026-08-17. Orin's read on LYB; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All LYB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $888.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $775.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $725.2M | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $631.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $485.7M | 0.2% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $455.3M | 0.0% of fund |
95 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 158 Form 4 filings, net −$29.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LYB
Orin answers questions about LYB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 16.4× | 8.7× | — |
| P/S | 0.62× | 0.60× | — |
| P/B | 1.8× | 2.2× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−4.58σ from its own mean).
20.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$70
$62 – $83 · +15% against today's price
- 19 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $19B | — | 16.4× | 13.2% | -1.1% | -3% |
| ALBAlbemarle Corporation | $13B | 236.4× | 11.2× | 23.9% | 3.8% | 2% |
| CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $19B | 8.9× | 5.0× | 42.5% | 27.1% | 40% |
| DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc. | $18B | 284.6× | 14.3× | 34.4% | 0.7% | 0% |
| DOWDow Inc. | $21B | — | 16.4× | 9.8% | -2.9% | -7% |
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc. | $22B | 78.6× | 18.5× | 37.5% | 2.9% | 2% |
| RPMRPM International Inc. | $13B | 19.3× | 11.5× | 41.4% | 8.4% | 21% |
| RSReliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $20B | 22.2× | 14.1× | 26.9% | 5.7% | 12% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | $9B | — | — | 4.7% | -10.9% | -14% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $91 | $65.50 · +39% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $98 | $65.50 · +49% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.