LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
LyondellBasell is showing a credible cyclical recovery off a deep FY2025 trough — Q2 2026 revenue of $9.18B (up 19.8% YoY) produced $1.54B in operating income and $1.72 EPS — but the balance sheet damage from that trough year remains unresolved, with total debt at $15.96B against equity of $10.08B and FCF of just $384M.
The stock at $60.03 trades below both its 50-day ($62.30) and 200-day ($62.44) moving averages as of 9 Oct, and while the MACD histogram has turned slightly positive at +0.14, there is no decisive technical confirmation of a breakout. With Q3 2026 results due October 30 and recent press coverage flagging dividend-sustainability concerns alongside peer Dow, the risk/reward is balanced enough to await confirmation before committing capital.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet stress. Total debt rose to $15.96B in FY2025 from $12.92B in FY2024 while stockholders' equity fell to $10.08B from $12.46B, leaving leverage elevated heading into the recovery.
- Dividend sustainability. Multiple recent news articles (24/7 Wall Street, Sept-Oct 2026) explicitly name LYB as having cut its dividend and question whether high-yield chemical payouts are sustainable, which could pressure the income-oriented shareholder base.
- Valuation ambiguity. The 0.62x price-to-sales ratio sits at a ~65% discount to the peer median of 1.79x, but EV/EBITDA at 16.4x trades at a ~35% premium to the peer median of 12.2x, making the cheapness less clear-cut than it appears.
- Insider selling persists. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 406,199 shares for $27.6M, with only 3 acquisitions versus 8 dispositions in the summary, offering no meaningful insider conviction signal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 9 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on LYB; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 37.4% over twelve months, from $49.09 on 27 Oct 2025 to $67.43 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $82.38 on 30 Mar 2026; the last close is 18.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 23.4M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All LYB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $888.9M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $775.8M | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $725.2M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $631.0M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $485.7M | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $455.3M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $436.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $387.6M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $265.2M | 0.0% |
98 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 163 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$27.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LYB
Orin answers questions about LYB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 0.70× its yearly sales — above its usual level (0.60×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 10.8× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 0.70×above usual | 0.60× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.7×above usual | 8.7× | — |
| P/B | 2.0×below usual | 2.2× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $68.56 (from $62 to $83) — 2% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$68.56
$62 – $83 · +2% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. None of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit, so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $22B | lost money | 17.7× | 13.2% | −1.1% | −3% |
| DOWDow Inc. | $24B | lost money | 11.2× | 11.1% | −1.9% | −5% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | $8B | lost money | 18.2× | 5.9% | −3.9% | −5% |
- DOW, WLK: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $69 a share — 3% above the $67.39 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $69 | 3% above $67.39 |
| Levered | $75 | 11% above $67.39 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.