Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. LYV
Live Nation's Q2 2026 results validate the demand thesis — 9% revenue growth, 10% higher fan attendance, and deferred revenue up 25% to $6.4B provide strong forward visibility, while a pipeline of 25+ large venues supports AOI growth through 2027. However, at 26.8x EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 10.0x, with $12.4B in total debt against just $271M in stockholders' equity and FY2025 free cash flow collapsed to $305M from $1.05B, the stock at $184.44 already prices in near-flawless execution.
Hold — operational momentum is genuine and technicals have turned positive (price above both the 50-day and 200-day MAs, positive MACD histogram), but the valuation premium, debt load, and unresolved legal overhang leave no margin of safety.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. EV/EBITDA of 26.8x sits 169% above the peer median of 10.0x, leaving the stock vulnerable to any execution miss or demand softness.
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt surged 50% to $12.4B in FY2025 against just $271M in equity, constraining financial flexibility if live-event demand cools.
- FCF deterioration. FY2025 free cash flow fell 71% to $305M as capex nearly doubled to $1.09B; if venue investment fails to generate commensurate AOI growth, returns will be pressured.
- Legal and regulatory overhang. DOJ antitrust proceedings and legal costs remain unresolved, with Zacks noting a Q4-heavy profit plan that amplifies execution risk in the second half of 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Seeking Alpha news article, 2026-08-13 · FMP FY2025 annual fundamentals · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-17. Orin's read on LYV; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All LYV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Brasada Capital Management | $6.8B | 1.2% of fund |
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
99 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 113 Form 4 filings, net −$138.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LYV
Orin answers questions about LYV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 24.2× | 18.5× | — |
| P/S | 1.50× | 1.29× | — |
| P/B | 478.0× | — | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−4.90σ from its own mean).
33.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$208
$187 – $222 · +24% against today's price
- 40 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYVLive Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $39B | — | 24.2× | 44.8% | 0.5% | 73% |
| CHTRCharter Communications, Inc. | $16B | 3.0× | 5.6× | 56.6% | 9.1% | 30% |
| FOXAFox Corporation | $28B | 14.6× | 9.3× | 49.4% | 9.8% | 15% |
| TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $14B | 62.6× | 11.5× | 54.1% | 4.3% | 6% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $219 | $168.85 · +30% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $174 | $168.85 · +3% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.