Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Live Nation's top-line momentum remains intact — Q2 2026 revenue grew 9.4% to $7.67B with a 59% EPS beat to $1.05 — but the capital structure is deteriorating at an alarming pace.
Total debt reached $12.44B at year-end 2025, up from $8.27B in 2024, and the company just priced an additional $730M of 7.1% senior notes and €600M of 6.1% notes in October 2026, pushing leverage higher against just $271M of stockholders' equity. FY2025 free cash flow collapsed to $305M from $1.05B, insiders are net sellers over 24 months, and at 24.9x EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 7.4x, the stock offers no margin of safety. Hold — the live-events secular tailwind is real, but rising debt costs, shrinking FCF, and a rich valuation create asymmetric downside risk.
What could go wrong
- Rising debt servicing costs. New $730M notes at 7.1% and €600M at 6.1% layered on top of $12.44B existing debt (as of FY2025) materially increase interest expense against $271M equity.
- FCF erosion. FY2025 free cash flow fell to $305M from $1.05B in FY2024 as capex jumped to $1.09B; FCF margin compressed to 1.2% from 4.5%.
- Valuation premium. EV/EBITDA of 24.9x versus peer median of 7.4x leaves no room for operational missteps; PE is negative at -155.8x.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 48,154 shares valued at $7.2M with zero open-market acquisitions; CEO Rapino sold 16,251 shares at $181.77 in August 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results and earnings vs estimates · fundamentals · news, 7 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on LYV; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 12.3% over twelve months, from $153.17 on 27 Oct 2025 to $171.97 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $188.46 on 14 Aug 2026; the last close is 8.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.9M, on 5 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All LYV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.5B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $869.8M | 0.0% |
| Canada Pension Plan Investment Board | $859.0M | 0.5% |
| Select Equity Group | $828.4M | 4.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $810.5M | 0.0% |
102 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 114 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$7.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LYV
Orin answers questions about LYV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 1.51× its yearly sales — above its usual level (1.29×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 69.3× | 16.9× |
| P/S | 1.51×above usual | 1.29× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.3× | — | — |
| P/B | 92.5×below usual | 147× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 13.3× to 327× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $208 (from $183 to $222) — 21% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$208
$183 – $222 · +21% against the last close
- 19 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (TKO 49.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYVLive Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $42B | lost money | 22.3× | 16.3% | 0.5% | n/m |
| TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $14B | 49.3× | 10.5× | 57.5% | 5.2% | 8% |
- LYV: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Communication Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 16.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now16.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $182 a share — 6% above the $172.50 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $182 | 6% above $172.50 |
| Levered | $146 | 15% below $172.50 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.