Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. MAA
MAA's fundamentals continue to deteriorate—EPS has fallen from $5.48 in 2022 to $3.78 in 2025, net income declined from $637M to $447M, and total debt rose from $4.44B to $5.41B—yet the stock still trades at 39x earnings, a 40% premium to the peer median of 28x. Q2 2026 Core FFO of $2.08 missed the prior year's $2.15 and same-store NOI declined, though the $0.02 beat over internal guidance and improving lease trends suggest operations may be stabilizing.
With the stock at $133.49 near its 200-day MA of $132.14 and neutral technicals (RSI 48.7), much of the bad news appears priced in, but the premium valuation leaves limited upside until earnings inflect positively.
What could go wrong
- Sun Belt supply pressure. Continued new apartment deliveries in MAA's core Southeast/Southwest markets could keep same-store NOI falling, as seen in Q2 2026.
- Leverage trajectory. Total debt has risen 22% from $4.44B (2022) to $5.41B (2025) while equity declined from $6.03B to $5.68B, increasing balance sheet risk if rates stay elevated.
- Valuation compression. At 39x earnings versus a peer median of 28x, any further EPS decline could trigger a de-rating toward peers.
- Institutional outflows. Multiple 13F filings show investors reducing positions (Aurora cut 78%, Edgestream cut 51%), and smart money score remains low at 0.04.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative composite · MarketBeat news, Zacks news. Orin's read on MAA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MAA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $757.6M | 0.1% of fund |
| Viking Global Investors | $700.7M | 2.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $523.8M | 0.2% of fund |
76 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 127 Form 4 filings, net −$5.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MAA
Orin answers questions about MAA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 34.3× | 34.2× | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.3× | 16.7× | — |
| P/S | 6.15× | 8.24× | — |
| P/B | 2.5× | 3.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.14σ from its own mean).
7.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$137
$123 – $147 · +17% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAAMid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $14B | 34.3× | 15.3× | 47.3% | 18.2% | 7% |
| ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc. | $17B | 42.2× | 18.5× | 69.4% | 21.6% | 8% |
| INVHInvitation Homes Inc. | $16B | 24.3× | 13.9× | 44.4% | 23.1% | 7% |
| KIMKimco Realty Corporation | $15B | 25.0× | 14.7× | 54.8% | 27.7% | 6% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 37.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $206 | $139.53 · +48% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $142 | $139.53 · +2% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.