ManpowerGroup Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
ManpowerGroup is an extremely oversold contrarian buy at $41.49 with RSI at 20.06, as quarterly fundamentals are inflecting positively despite the severe price decline from the $56.95 50-day moving average.
Q3 2026 revenue grew 4.4% YoY to $4.84B with EPS of $1.01 (in line with estimates and up from $0.38 a year ago), continuing a sequential improvement trend visible since Q1 2026. Valuation is deeply discounted at 16.08x PE, 0.10x PS, and 7.02x EV/EBITDA — roughly 13%, 90%, and 55% below peer medians respectively — while the announced CEO transition to Becky Frankiewicz on January 1, 2027 and continued cost actions provide a credible path to margin recovery from the depressed FY2025 operating margin of 1.3%.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet deterioration. FY2025 total debt nearly doubled to $2.39B from $1.23B in FY2024, while free cash flow turned negative at -$161.4M and the company posted a net loss of -$13.3M, raising solvency concerns if revenue recovery stalls.
- Technical breakdown below 200-day MA. The stock at $41.49 is only marginally above the 200-day moving average of $39.12; a break below could trigger further institutional selling given the already deeply negative MACD histogram of -1.24.
- Leadership transition uncertainty. CEO Jonas Prising transitioning to Executive Chair with Becky Frankiewicz taking over January 1, 2027 introduces execution risk during a fragile operational recovery.
- Macro demand softness. Staffing is highly cyclical; any slowdown in hiring demand, particularly in the U.S. where Manpower strength drove Q3 growth, could reverse the improving revenue trend.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 2026 results and earnings vs estimates · technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on MAN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 39.3% over twelve months, from $32.85 on 27 Oct 2025 to $45.76 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $62.95 on 31 Aug 2026; the last close is 27.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.5M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MAN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $265.9M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $119.6M | 0.0% |
| Quantinno Capital Management | $106.0M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $100.9M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $70.7M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $68.7M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $49.6M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $40.5M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $40.3M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $39.1M | 0.0% |
53 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 228 Form 4 filings. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MAN
Orin answers questions about MAN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 16.4×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.7×above usual | 16.4× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 0.11×below usual | 0.21× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5×below usual | 8.6× | — |
| P/B | 1.0×below usual | 1.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $52.14 (from $47 to $65) — 14% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$52.14
$47 – $65 · +14% against the last close
- 2 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 28.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANManpowerGroup Inc. | $2B | 17.7× | 7.5× | 16.1% | 0.6% | 6% |
| BBSIBarrett Business Services, Inc. | $737M | 23.7× | 10.9× | 19.3% | 2.4% | 15% |
| CTOSCustom Truck One Source, Inc. | $2B | 81.0× | 5.3× | 21.1% | 1.4% | 5% |
| DCODucommun Incorporated | $2B | 38.9× | 21.0× | 27.8% | 6.1% | 8% |
| ICFIICF International, Inc. | $2B | 17.9× | 12.0× | 26.0% | 5.3% | 9% |
| NSPInsperity, Inc. | $2B | lost money | 34.0× | 12.8% | −0.2% | −25% |
| NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc. | $1B | 32.8× | 25.0× | 59.2% | 21.3% | 24% |
| WLDNWilldan Group, Inc. | $1B | 16.6× | 14.9× | 38.2% | 8.2% | 19% |
- NSP: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $139 a share — 201% above the $46.12 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $139 | 201% above $46.12 |
| Levered | $125 | 172% above $46.12 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.