Marriott International, Inc. MAR
Marriott's asset-light franchise keeps compounding — FY2025 revenue grew 4.3% to $26.2B with EPS up 13.9% to $9.49 and FCF of $2.6B — but the stock at $357.33 trades at 37.2x earnings, a 21.3% premium to the peer median of 30.7x, while total debt has climbed to $17.1B against negative book equity of $3.8B. Smart money is only modestly constructive (score 0.0688 as of Q2 2026) and insiders remain net sellers at $67.1M over 24 months, so the raised 2026 outlook and loyalty-driven fee growth are already largely priced in.
With the stock below its 50-day MA of $373.07 and MACD still negative, the risk/reward stays balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Premium valuation. PE of 37.2x sits 21.3% above the peer median of 30.7x and EV/EBITDA of 23.4x is 14.5% above the 20.5x median, leaving little margin for execution misses.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt rose to $17.08B at FY2025-end from $15.24B in FY2024, with stockholders' equity at negative $3.77B, amplifying sensitivity to any lodging downturn.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold $67.1M in shares across 144 transactions, with no cluster buying detected.
- Geographic softness. Middle East weakness continues to cloud RevPAR and international execution despite Marriott's raised 2026 outlook on stronger U.S. demand.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · peer_relative snapshot as of 2026-08-18. Orin's read on MAR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MAR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $3.6B | 0.3% of fund |
| Fmr | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $2.0B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
111 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 149 Form 4 filings, net −$67.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MAR
Orin answers questions about MAR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 36.6× | 32.0× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.1× | 21.7× | — |
| P/S | 3.41× | 3.16× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.51σ from its own mean).
15.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$387
$343 – $449 · +11% against today's price
- 23 buy or overweight
- 28 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARMarriott International, Inc. | $92B | 36.6× | 23.1× | 20.2% | 9.6% | -67% |
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | $90B | 34.3× | 28.4× | 78.0% | 20.4% | 33% |
| AZOAutoZone, Inc. | $47B | 18.3× | 14.1× | 52.3% | 12.6% | -90% |
| CVNACarvana Co. | $70B | 22.2× | — | 19.4% | 6.3% | 47% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $73B | 40.3× | 13.7× | 5.7% | 1.0% | 3% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $70B | 45.4× | 26.9× | 44.1% | 12.7% | -28% |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $71B | 27.2× | 20.0× | 51.6% | 14.3% | -232% |
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $64B | 14.7× | 12.0× | 46.6% | 23.6% | 44% |
| ROSTRoss Stores, Inc. | $76B | 28.3× | 18.5× | 29.9% | 10.8% | 42% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 32.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $184 | $386.74 · −52% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $149 | $386.74 · −61% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.