Masco Corporation MAS
Masco remains a hold as the fundamental picture is genuinely mixed: Q2 2026 revenue of $1.992B declined 2.9% YoY, extending a four-year revenue contraction from $8.68B in FY2022 to $7.56B in FY2025, yet the company delivered three consecutive EPS beats including a 24.2% surprise in Q2 2026 ($1.64 actual vs. $1.32 estimated) as operating margin held at 16.82% in FY2025. The stock trades at a 16.2% P/E discount to peers (15.67x vs. 18.70x median) and 10.3% below on EV/EBITDA, but at $68.16 it sits below both its 50-day ($73.58) and 200-day ($69.96) moving averages with smart money at -0.0306 as of Q2 2026, offering no clear technical or flow-based catalyst to upgrade.
Free cash flow of $866M in FY2025 and consistent margin discipline provide downside support, but until revenue stabilizes — Q1 2026's +6.5% YoY uptick was reversed by Q2's decline — there is insufficient evidence to justify a buy.
What could go wrong
- Revenue erosion persists. Four consecutive years of declining revenue from $8.68B (FY2022) to $7.56B (FY2025), and Q2 2026 still negative at -2.9% YoY, suggesting structural demand weakness in repair and remodel markets.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $68.16 is below both 50-day MA ($73.58) and 200-day MA ($69.96); a sustained break below the 200-day could trigger further institutional selling given smart money score is already negative at -0.0306.
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $3.436B against negative stockholders' equity of -$186M in FY2025 limits financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to any rate environment that pressures housing demand.
- P/S premium to peers. P/S of 1.76x is 45% above the peer median of 1.22x, meaning the valuation discount on earnings could compress if margins deteriorate rather than revenue recovering.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q2 2026 · fundamentals FY2025 and FY2022 · earnings_surprises Q2 2026 · peer_relative. Orin's read on MAS; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MAS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $994.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $872.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Harris Associates L P | $676.9M | 0.9% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $439.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $433.6M | 0.0% of fund |
84 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 71 Form 4 filings, net $836K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MAS
Orin answers questions about MAS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.5× | 16.6× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9× | 11.8× | — |
| P/S | 1.74× | 1.89× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.56σ from its own mean).
4.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$82
$72 – $94 · +22% against today's price
- 20 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MASMasco Corporation | $13B | 15.5× | 10.9× | 36.9% | 11.6% | -406% |
| AVYAvery Dennison Corporation | $13B | 18.5× | 12.0× | 29.0% | 7.6% | 31% |
| BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc. | $6B | 63.3× | 11.1× | 29.2% | 0.7% | 2% |
| CSLCarlisle Companies Incorporated | $13B | 17.9× | 11.9× | 35.3% | 14.2% | 41% |
| MLIMueller Industries, Inc. | $13B | 15.4× | 9.9× | 27.3% | 18.2% | 27% |
| OCOwens Corning | $10B | — | 22.3× | 26.2% | -6.8% | -17% |
| WCCWESCO International, Inc. | $18B | 24.7× | 14.8× | 21.4% | 2.8% | 14% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 16.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $63 | $71.16 · −11% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $60 | $71.16 · −16% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.