Masco Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Masco remains a hold as the fundamental picture is improving but not yet decisive.
FY2025 revenue of $7.56B contracted 3.4% YoY, continuing a multi-year decline from $8.68B in FY2022, yet operating margin expanded to 16.8% and the company delivered three consecutive EPS beats including a 24.2% surprise in Q2 2026 ($1.64 actual vs. $1.32 estimated). Valuation is roughly fair — P/E of 16.75x sits 2.7% above the peer median of 16.31x while P/S of 1.89x is an 18.5% discount — and technicals have improved with the stock at $72.87 above both its 50-day ($70.91) and 200-day ($70.39) moving averages as of 16 Oct. However, smart money remains slightly negative at -0.03 as of Q2 2026, insiders are net sellers (-154,723 shares over 24 months), and revenue has not stabilized, leaving insufficient evidence to upgrade ahead of the Q3 2026 earnings call on October 28.
What could go wrong
- Revenue contraction persists. FY2025 revenue fell 3.4% YoY to $7.56B, extending a decline from $8.68B in FY2022; Q2 2026 revenue of $1.992B was still down 2.9% YoY despite Q1 2026's +6.5% uptick.
- Leveraged balance sheet. Total debt of $3.44B against negative stockholders' equity of -$186M as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility if housing markets deteriorate further.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net disposed of 154,723 shares worth $11.6M with zero open-market acquisitions, signaling limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score of -0.03 as of Q2 2026 with fund count at 66, still negative though improving from -0.02 in Q1 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates, 29 Jul · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on MAS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 10.0% over twelve months, from $68.32 on 27 Oct 2025 to $75.17 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $82.77 on 2 Jul 2026; the last close is 9.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 9.3M, on 29 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MAS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $994.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $872.8M | 0.0% |
| Harris Associates | $676.9M | 0.9% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $439.8M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $433.6M | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $372.8M | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $308.4M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $291.2M | 0.0% |
86 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 71 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$11.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MAS
Orin answers questions about MAS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 16.6×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.3×near usual | 16.6× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.94×near usual | 1.89× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.9×near usual | 11.8× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $80.14 (from $69 to $94) — 7% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$80.14
$69 – $94 · +7% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 17.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MASMasco Corporation | $15B | 17.3× | 11.9× | 36.9% | 11.6% | n/m |
| AOSA. O. Smith Corporation | $8B | 17.3× | 11.8× | 38.6% | 13.1% | 27% |
| FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | $5B | 35.0× | 17.4× | 45.6% | 3.4% | 6% |
| LIILennox International Inc. | $13B | 16.8× | 13.0× | 33.1% | 14.6% | 65% |
| MLIMueller Industries, Inc. | $12B | 13.8× | 8.7× | 26.5% | 17.3% | 27% |
| MWAMueller Water Products, Inc. | $4B | 17.2× | 10.8× | 37.9% | 15.0% | 20% |
| ZWSZurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | $8B | 28.2× | 21.1× | 47.1% | 16.3% | 18% |
- MAS: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $57 a share — 24% below the $75.06 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $57 | 24% below $75.06 |
| Levered | $54 | 28% below $75.06 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.