McDonald's Corporation MCD
McDonald's continues to deliver steady fundamental improvement—FY2025 revenue rose to $26.9B with operating income expanding to $12.4B and FCF recovering to $7.2B—but near-term operating momentum is weak, with Q2 comparable sales growth of just 1.3% and US same-store sales of only 0.8% versus QSR's 8.5%. At 22.2x earnings (6% premium to peer median) and 17.2x EV/EBITDA (4% discount to peers), valuation is broadly reasonable, but the 7.0x price-to-sales ratio is more than double the peer median of 3.2x, leaving little room for disappointment.
The stock trades at $274.15, below its 200-day MA of $299.29, and while the MACD histogram has turned positive and RSI sits neutral at 53, the technical trend remains broken until MCD reclaims its 200-day. Hold pending evidence of comp sales re-acceleration.
What could go wrong
- Competitive share losses. QSR/Burger King posted 8.5% US same-store sales growth versus MCD's 0.8%, suggesting meaningful share erosion in the core US market.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt stands at $54.8B against negative stockholders' equity of -$1.79B, limiting financial flexibility if conditions deteriorate.
- Rich PS multiple. PS ratio of 7.03x is 122% above the peer median of 3.17x, creating downside risk if revenue growth stalls further.
- Technical downtrend. Stock trades 8.4% below its 200-day moving average of $299.29, indicating persistent selling pressure through 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 · Motley Fool news 2026-08-10 · Seeking Alpha news 2026-08-10 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on MCD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MCD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $12.5B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $9.8B | 0.3% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $8.5B | 0.5% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.9B | 0.3% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $4.1B | 0.2% of fund |
162 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 193 Form 4 filings, net $76.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 11 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MCD
Orin answers questions about MCD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.3× | 25.5× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.8× | 19.1× | — |
| P/S | 6.11× | 8.37× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−3.23σ from its own mean).
9.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $7.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$305
$285 – $350 · +28% against today's price
- 36 buy or overweight
- 25 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDonald's Corporation | $169B | 19.3× | 14.8× | 57.4% | 31.7% | -561% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $42B | 30.0× | 20.7× | 24.1% | 11.4% | 53% |
| DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc. | $10B | 16.7× | 14.9× | 40.0% | 11.9% | -15% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | $24B | 20.4× | 13.0× | 69.4% | 9.1% | 56% |
| SBUXStarbucks Corporation | $107B | 54.1× | 21.5× | 31.7% | 5.2% | -24% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | $39B | 17.6× | 17.5× | 45.8% | 25.4% | -30% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 5.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $309 | $284.52 · +9% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $235 | $284.52 · −17% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.