MCKNYSE·Medical - Distribution

McKesson Corporation MCK

Market cap $103.3BP/E 23.5× trailingGross margin 3.6%Reports Wed 4 Nov, after the close

$880.50

−10.73 (−1.20%)Wed close 16:00 ET

52-wk $715.31 – $999.00

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Orin's take

0.60conviction · moderate

Refreshed 22 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

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McKesson remains a buy following FY2026 (ended 2026-03-31) results showing revenue of $403.4B (up 12.4% YoY) and diluted EPS of $38.38 (up 49.2% YoY), with $5.41B in free cash flow and a 22.75x P/E that sits roughly 8% below the peer median of 24.78x. The stock trades above both its 50-day ($818.79) and 200-day ($840.35) moving averages as of 2026-08-19, though a negative MACD histogram of -3.88 and a smart money score that turned slightly negative at -0.0509 as of Q2 2026 warrant monitoring.

Recent 13F filings show multiple institutions initiating new positions, and the fundamental momentum—driven by oncology and specialty drug distribution—remains intact despite thin 1.6% operating margins characteristic of the drug-distribution model.

What could go wrong

MACD bearish crossover. MACD line of 12.97 sits below its signal line of 16.85 with a histogram of -3.88, indicating waning short-term momentum despite the stock trading above both moving averages.
Smart money sentiment shift. Smart money score fell from +0.1063 (Q1 2026) to -0.0509 (Q2 2026), the first negative reading since Q3 2024's -0.0504.
Net insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders recorded net dispositions of approximately $121.2M in value, with 98 sales versus 93 acquisitions.
Thin operating margins. FY2026 operating margin of 1.6% and net margin of 1.18% leave limited buffer against pricing pressure or reimbursement changes in the distribution business.

What would change my mind

Quarterly earnings deceleration. FY2027 quarterly revenue or EPS growth falls materially below the FY2026 pace of 12.4% and 49.2% respectivelybearish

Technical breakdown. Stock closes below the 200-day moving average of $840.35 on heavy volumebearish

Smart money recovery. Smart money score returns to positive territory in the next 13F filing periodbullish

MACD reversal. MACD histogram turns positive with the MACD line crossing above the signal linebullish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2026 + derived_metrics · FMP fundamentals FY2026 + derived_metrics · FMP fundamentals FY2026 · peer_relative. Orin's read on MCK; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All MCK filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
8-K	28 Aug	McKesson Corporation disclosed a cybersecurity incident discovered on August 25, 2026, triggering Item 7.01 of its 8-K filing.	read
10-Q	5 Aug	McKesson Corporation reported revenues of $105,380 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an 8% increase year-over-year.	read
8-K	5 Aug	McKesson Corporation reported fiscal 2027 first quarter results, with consolidated revenues of $105.4 billion, an 8% increase.	read
8-K	24 Jul	McKesson Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on July 22, 2026, where all director nominees were elected, including Dominic J.	read
8-K	1 Jul	Thomas L. Rodgers, Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy and Business Development Officer, will retire on August 1, 2026. Ramesh Srinivasan will assume the role of Executive…	read
DEF 14A	12 Jun	Brian S. Tyler, CEO, received total compensation of $24,213,044 for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. This included a base salary of $1,591,667, a bonus of $0, stock awards…	read
8-K	12 Jun	McKesson Corporation subsidiaries entered into an amendment to their Credit Agreement on June 9, 2026, establishing a $2,250.0 million senior secured term "B" loan facility due 2032.	read
10-K	7 May	McKesson’s fiscal 2026 net income attributable to the corporation jumped 45% to $4.76 billion on 12% revenue growth to $403.4 billion, driven by higher volumes in North American…	read

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$5.9B	0.1% of fund
State Street	$4.3B	0.1% of fund
Morgan Stanley	$4.0B	0.2% of fund
Franklin Resources	$2.2B	0.5% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management	$2.2B	0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management	$2.1B	0.1% of fund

118 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 192 Form 4 filings, net −$121.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 11 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Healthcare

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	23.5×	23.8×	26.4×
EV/EBITDA	15.3×	15.9×	—
P/S	0.25×	0.23×	—

Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.24σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

7.1%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $5.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

31 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$953

$845 – $1050 · +8% against today's price

How they rate it

25 buy or overweight
6 hold
0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 22.8× of 8 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
MCKMcKesson Corporation	$103B	23.5×	15.3×	3.6%	1.1%	-194%
BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company	$125B	13.5×	9.6×	70.2%	18.9%	47%
CAHCardinal Health, Inc.	$52B	30.4×	16.4×	3.8%	0.7%	-60%
CORCencora, Inc.	$61B	23.1×	13.6×	3.7%	0.8%	106%
CVSCVS Health Corporation	$110B	22.4×	13.0×	14.2%	1.2%	6%
HCAHCA Healthcare, Inc.	$94B	14.6×	9.0×	28.4%	8.8%	-113%
MDTMedtronic plc	$114B	21.8×	14.9×	66.7%	13.9%	11%
SYKStryker Corporation	$105B	28.1×	18.6×	65.2%	14.4%	16%
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated	$131B	29.8×	23.3×	86.0%	34.9%	23%

The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY15 35.5×FY26 22.4×

What its sector has traded at

Healthcare

FY14 6.5×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$1284	$792.50 · +62%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$1593	$792.50 · +101%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $880.50

52-week range$715 – $999

Analyst targets$845 – $1050

Standard DCF$1284 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $792.50

Levered DCF$1593 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $792.50

At own 5y-median P/E (24×)$893

At 5y P/E range (14–42×)$530 – $1571

At sector P/E (26×)$991

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.