Moody's Corporation MCO
Moody's fundamentals remain best-in-class — Q2 2026 revenue grew 15.1% YoY to $2.19B with operating margin holding near 44.8% (FY2025), and the company has beaten EPS estimates in all eight reported quarters — but the stock trades at a 30.0x trailing PE, a 33.7% premium to the peer median of 22.4x, with EV/EBITDA 30.6% above peers. Technicals have deteriorated since the prior buy call: as of 2026-09-23 the stock at $473.85 sits below its 50-day MA of $486.95 with a negative MACD histogram of -1.48, suggesting near-term momentum has cooled despite strong fundamentals.
The accelerating growth and margin expansion support long-term ownership, but the valuation premium and soft technical setup argue against adding at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 30.0x PE versus a peer median of 22.4x, any deceleration in revenue growth or EPS beats could trigger multiple contraction; the 33.7% premium leaves limited margin of safety.
- Cyclical debt issuance slowdown. Moody's Investors Service revenue is tied to debt issuance volumes; a sustained rise in interest rates or credit market dislocation could reduce issuance activity and slow the 15.1% YoY revenue growth seen in Q2 2026.
- Technical breakdown below 200-day MA. The stock is only narrowly above its 200-day MA of $472.33; a close below this level with the already-negative MACD could signal a deeper correction.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net value is -$14.0M despite a positive net share count of 37,240, indicating dollar-weighted disposition activity that could signal reduced internal confidence at these valuations.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results, Q2 2026 (period ended 2026-06-30) · derived_metrics, FY2025 · peer_relative (as of latest available data) · technicals, as of 2026-09-23. Orin's read on MCO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MCO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $11.2B | 3.7% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
121 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 306 Form 4 filings, net −$14.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MCO
Orin answers questions about MCO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.6× | 37.3× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.8× | 24.9× | — |
| P/S | 9.92× | 11.85× | — |
| P/B | 27.1× | 22.6× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.27σ from its own mean).
13.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$541
$500 – $597 · +16% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCOMoody's Corporation | $81B | 29.6× | 21.8× | 71.9% | 34.3% | 80% |
| CMECME Group Inc. | $97B | 22.7× | 18.3× | 81.9% | 63.1% | 16% |
| COINCoinbase Global, Inc. | $53B | — | — | 79.0% | -17.8% | -7% |
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $88B | 22.1× | 15.4× | 73.4% | 30.0% | 14% |
| MSCIMSCI Inc. | $40B | 30.6× | 22.8× | 83.0% | 40.7% | -54% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 30.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $186 | $451.29 · −59% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $172 | $451.29 · −62% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.