MDLZNasdaq·Food Confectioners

Mondelez International, Inc. MDLZ

Market cap $78.6BP/E 22.6× trailingGross margin 31.1%Reports Tue 27 Oct, after the close

$61.60

+0.16 (+0.26%)live 09:30 ET

52-wk $51.20 – $66.65

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Orin's take

0.62conviction · moderate

Refreshed 24 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

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Mondelez remains a hold after FY2025's severe margin compression—gross margin collapsing to 28.4% from 39.1% and EPS falling to $1.89 from $3.42—was partially offset by a Q2 2026 sales beat and raised organic growth outlook, but margin recovery has yet to be confirmed in reported financials. The stock trades at a 27.3% P/E discount to the peer median (23.8x vs 32.7x), though that reflects depressed earnings, and EV/EBITDA at 16.7x still roughly matches peers.

Constructive technicals (price above 50-day and 200-day MAs, positive MACD histogram), net insider buying of ~1.8M shares over 24 months, and a modestly positive smart-money score of 0.04 as of Q2 2026 suggest accumulating optimism, but the cocoa-cost-driven profitability collapse keeps the call balanced until margin inflection is visible in reported results.

What could go wrong

Cocoa cost inflation persists. FY2025 gross margin compressed to 28.4% from 39.1% and operating margin fell to 9.4% from 17.4%, driven by cocoa cost inflation; if input costs remain elevated, margin recovery could be delayed further.
Earnings quality deterioration. FY2025 net income fell 46.8% to $2.45B from $4.61B while total debt rose to $22.4B from $18.4B, weakening the balance sheet at a time when earnings power is diminished.
Valuation not as cheap as it appears. The 27.3% P/E discount to peers reflects depressed FY2025 earnings of $1.89/share; EV/EBITDA at 16.7x carries a slight premium to the peer median of 16.6x, limiting re-rating upside if margins stay compressed.
Europe and chocolate category weakness. Recent news highlights Europe weakness and chocolate category softness, which could weigh on organic growth momentum despite North America rebound and Emerging Markets strength.

What would change my mind

Gross margin recovery confirmed. Next quarterly report shows gross margin rebounding toward the mid-30% range, indicating cocoa cost pressure is easing and earnings power is normalizingbullish

Margin guidance cut or cocoa spike. Management lowers 2026 margin or earnings outlook, or cocoa futures spike again, signaling prolonged profitability pressurebearish

Organic growth deceleration. Quarterly organic growth falls below the raised 2026 outlook range, suggesting volume/mix momentum is fadingbearish

Deleveraging stall. Total debt continues to rise above the FY2025 level of $22.4B without corresponding earnings recovery, increasing balance sheet riskbearish

Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024; derived_metrics net_income_growth_yoy -0.4684 · fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics revenue_growth_yoy 0.0575 · peer_relative. Orin's read on MDLZ; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All MDLZ filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
10-Q	28 Jul	Mondelēz International reported net revenues of $9.355 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 4.1% year-over-year.	read
8-K	28 Jul	Mondelēz International, Inc.	read
8-K	18 Jun	Mondelēz International, Inc.	read
8-K	26 May	Mondelez International, Inc.	read
13G/A	14 May	—	on file
13G	14 May	—	on file
13G	30 Apr	—	on file
10-Q	28 Apr	Net revenue rose 8.2 % to $10.08 billion in the three months ended 31 March 2026 versus $9.31 billion in the prior-year quarter; organic net revenue grew 3.0 % after stripping out…	read

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$4.9B	0.1% of fund
Capital Research Global Investors	$4.0B	0.6% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &	$3.7B	0.2% of fund
State Street	$3.5B	0.1% of fund
Invesco	$2.6B	0.2% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management	$2.0B	0.1% of fund

113 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 61 Form 4 filings, net $72.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Consumer Defensive

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	22.6×	21.6×	38.3×
EV/EBITDA	16.0×	18.7×	—
P/S	1.98×	2.74×	—
P/B	3.0×	3.3×	—

Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.27σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

10.3%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

42 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$70

$65 – $73 · +14% against today's price

How they rate it

32 buy or overweight
8 hold
2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 30.8× of 7 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
MDLZMondelez International, Inc.	$78B	22.6×	16.0×	31.1%	8.9%	13%
CLColgate-Palmolive Company	$69B	33.8×	19.6×	60.4%	9.7%	631%
HSYThe Hershey Company	$34B	22.8×	14.9×	38.1%	12.2%	32%
KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.	$43B	31.9×	21.0×	49.4%	7.1%	6%
KRThe Kroger Co.	$35B	30.8×	10.8×	23.1%	0.7%	17%
MNSTMonster Beverage Corporation	$86B	40.3×	28.1×	55.5%	23.1%	25%
MOAltria Group, Inc.	$115B	14.5×	11.7×	71.0%	36.5%	-265%
SYYSysco Corporation	$37B	21.0×	13.1×	18.5%	2.1%	75%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 26.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY14 28.2×FY25 28.5×

What its sector has traded at

Consumer Defensive

FY14 22.9×FY26 39.1×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$116	$63.87 · +82%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$97	$63.87 · +52%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $61.60

52-week range$51 – $67

Analyst targets$65 – $73

Standard DCF$116 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $63.87

Levered DCF$97 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $63.87

At own 5y-median P/E (22×)$59

At 5y P/E range (17–34×)$47 – $92

At sector P/E (38×)$104

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.