Mondelez International, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Mondelez holds as Q2 2026 results (quarter ended 30 Jun) show gross profit of $3.986B on $9.355B revenue — a sharp rebound from FY2025's depressed 28.4% gross margin — but the stock has already rallied to $63.91 with RSI at 66.3 and price above both the 50-day ($61.69) and 200-day ($59.93) moving averages, limiting near-term upside.
The P/E of 23.41x trades in line with the peer median of 23.15x, offering no valuation cushion, while Q1 2026's gross profit of $2.803B on $10.08B revenue shows the margin recovery remains uneven quarter to quarter. With Q3 2026 results due October 29, sustained margin recovery is needed to justify further gains.
What could go wrong
- Commodity cost resurgence. FY2025 gross margin collapsed to 28.4% from 39.1% in FY2024; another cocoa-cost spike would repeat the margin damage.
- Uneven quarterly recovery. Q1 2026 gross profit of $2.803B on $10.08B revenue lagged Q2 2026's $3.986B on $9.355B, suggesting the margin rebound is not yet stable.
- Insider selling. CEO Van de Put sold all 133,580 exercised shares at $64.08 on 19 Aug; 24-month net insider disposition of 136,580 shares.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $22.403B against stockholders' equity of $25.838B as of FY2025 constrains financial flexibility.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · technicals. Orin's read on MDLZ; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 1.1% over twelve months, from $61.66 on 27 Oct 2025 to $62.35 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $65.19 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 4.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 29.2M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MDLZ filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.9B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $4.0B | 0.6% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $3.7B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $3.5B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $2.6B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.9B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.3B | 0.1% |
116 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 61 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$8.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MDLZ
Orin answers questions about MDLZ from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 21.7×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NASDAQ is at 37.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.8×above usual | 21.7× | 37.9× |
| P/S | 2.01×below usual | 2.74× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.0×below usual | 18.1× | — |
| P/B | 3.0×below usual | 3.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $69.88 (from $65 to $74) — 12% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$69.88
$65 – $74 · +12% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.8× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (HSY 22.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | $80B | 22.8× | 16.0× | 31.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
| HSYThe Hershey Company | $33B | 22.3× | 14.5× | 38.1% | 12.2% | 32% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 37.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now37.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $104 a share — 67% above the $62.14 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $104 | 67% above $62.14 |
| Levered | $76 | 22% above $62.14 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.