Medtronic plc
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Medtronic remains a buy after completing the MiniMed separation on October 15, 2026, which simplifies the portfolio and could unlock re-rating potential for the remaining core medtech franchise.
Revenue growth accelerated to 13.7% YoY in Q1 FY2027 (period ended 31 Jul), up from 9.9% in the prior quarter, while the company delivered a 4.3% EPS beat — its largest surprise in the recent streak. At 23.2x P/E the stock trades at a 13% discount to the 26.6x peer median, and technicals are constructive with price above both the 50-day ($90.89) and 200-day ($88.30) moving averages and a positive MACD histogram of 0.93 as of 16 Oct. The main caveat is persistent insider selling — net dispositions of 155,323 shares over 24 months including a 50,000-share CEO sale at $95 on 15 Oct — which tempers conviction ahead of the post-spin financial reset.
What could go wrong
- Post-spin financial uncertainty. The MiniMed separation completed 15 Oct removes the diabetes segment; forward revenue and margin profile for the remaining entity is not yet reflected in reported financials, creating modeling uncertainty.
- Insider selling pressure. Net insider dispositions of 155,323 shares over 24 months, including CEO Geoffrey Martha selling 50,000 shares at $95 on 15 Oct, signal limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Margin compression vs. historical. FY2026 net margin of 13.2% remains below the 15.9% level achieved in FY2022, and gross margin has contracted from 68.0% to 65.0% over the same period.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $27.96B as of FY2026 (period ended 24 Apr) against stockholders' equity of $49.46B leaves limited balance-sheet flexibility for aggressive capital return or M&A post-spin.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 31 Jul · peer comparison · news, 15 Oct · insider trades. Orin's read on MDT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 0.2% over twelve months, from $94.13 on 27 Oct 2025 to $93.95 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $105.35 on 25 Nov 2025; the last close is 10.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 105.7M, on 8 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MDT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $8.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $6.6B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $5.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $2.6B | 0.8% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $1.4B | 0.1% |
131 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 207 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$15.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MDT
Orin answers questions about MDT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 23.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 27.8×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.0×below usual | 27.8× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 3.20×near usual | 3.27× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.4×below usual | 15.8× | — |
| P/B | 2.4×above usual | 2.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $97.73 (from $83 to $115) — 4% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$97.73
$83 – $115 · +4% against the last close
- 16 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 23.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 29.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDTMedtronic plc | $120B | 23.0× | 14.4× | 66.7% | 13.9% | 11% |
| BSXBoston Scientific Corporation | $65B | 18.2× | 13.3× | 71.2% | 17.5% | 15% |
| EWEdwards Lifesciences Corporation | $58B | 57.0× | 34.7× | 78.1% | 15.3% | 10% |
| SYKStryker Corporation | $116B | 31.0× | 19.0× | 65.2% | 14.4% | 16% |
| ZBHZimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | $20B | 26.9× | 12.0× | 69.7% | 9.0% | 6% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 23.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now23.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $157 a share — 67% above the $94.17 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $157 | 67% above $94.17 |
| Levered | $142 | 51% above $94.17 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.