Medtronic plc MDT
Medtronic warrants a buy as Q1 FY2027 revenue growth accelerated to 13.7% YoY — up from 9.9% in the prior quarter — driving a 4.3% EPS beat, the largest in its recent surprise streak, and a raised FY2027 EPS guidance. At 22.8x P/E the stock trades at an 8.8% discount to the 25.0x peer median while generating $5.4B in annual free cash flow, providing valuation cushion that the prior hold case lacked.
Net insider accumulation of 2.86M shares over 24 months and a smart money score improving from -0.015 to 0.035 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 signal institutional re-engagement, though margin compression to 13.2% and a negative MACD histogram temper conviction.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Net margin fell to 13.2% in FY2026 from 13.9% in FY2025, and EPS growth of 3.3% materially lagged the 8.4% revenue growth, indicating cost pressures eroding operating leverage.
- Near-term technical weakness. MACD histogram at -0.40 with RSI at 47.8 as of 2026-09-22 suggests lack of momentum despite price sitting above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- Smart money fade. Smart money score declined from 0.053 on 2026-03-31 to 0.035 on 2026-06-30, and fund count, while rising to 67, has not shown sustained acceleration.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $27.96B against stockholders' equity of $49.46B as of fiscal year ended 2026-04-24 constrains financial flexibility.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q1 FY2027 and Q4 FY2026 revenue_yoy_pct · earnings_surprises period_end 2026-09-01 surprise_pct 0.043165 · peer_relative pe 22.76, peer_median_pe 24.96, pe_vs_median_pct -8.82% · fundamentals FY2026 free_cash_flow 5426000000.0. Orin's read on MDT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MDT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $6.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $5.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/ | $2.6B | 0.8% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
128 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 204 Form 4 filings, net $158.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MDT
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.8× | 27.8× | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.9× | 16.2× | — |
| P/S | 3.04× | 3.56× | — |
| P/B | 2.3× | 2.3× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.05σ from its own mean).
8.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $5.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$98
$83 – $115 · +10% against today's price
- 31 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDTMedtronic plc | $114B | 21.8× | 14.9× | 66.7% | 13.9% | 11% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | $125B | 13.5× | 9.6× | 70.2% | 18.9% | 47% |
| BSXBoston Scientific Corporation | $66B | 18.0× | 13.8× | 71.2% | 17.5% | 15% |
| CVSCVS Health Corporation | $110B | 22.4× | 13.0× | 14.2% | 1.2% | 6% |
| EWEdwards Lifesciences Corporation | $50B | 49.9× | 31.0× | 78.0% | 15.4% | 10% |
| HCAHCA Healthcare, Inc. | $94B | 14.6× | 9.0× | 28.4% | 8.8% | -113% |
| MCKMcKesson Corporation | $103B | 23.5× | 15.3× | 3.6% | 1.1% | -194% |
| SYKStryker Corporation | $105B | 28.1× | 18.6× | 65.2% | 14.4% | 16% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $131B | 29.8× | 23.3× | 86.0% | 34.9% | 23% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 4.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.