MDU Resources Group, Inc. MDU
MDU Resources remains a hold — the stock trades at a 13% P/E and ~20% EV/EBITDA discount to peers at $18.39 with RSI at 25.4 (deeply oversold), while Q2 2026 EPS improved to $0.10 from $0.0672 a year earlier and management reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance of $0.93–$1.00. However, FY 2025 results expose a still-strained business: gross profit fell to $404.9M from $571.9M, free cash flow was negative $318.6M against $792M capex, and total debt rose to $2.74B.
The $3.1B capital plan through 2030 targets 6–8% long-term EPS growth, but until that capex converts into visible rate-base earnings and margin stabilizes, the balance-sheet pressure keeps this a wait-and-see name.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. FY 2025 gross profit dropped to $404.9M from $571.9M (FY 2024) even as revenue grew 6.66%, indicating cost or mix pressures that may persist through the investment cycle.
- Balance-sheet strain. Total debt rose to $2.74B with FCF of negative $318.6M and capex of $792M; the $3.1B plan through 2030 could further pressure credit metrics before rate-base earnings materialize.
- Execution risk on Bakken and regulatory outcomes. The growth thesis depends on timely Bakken East pipeline progress and favorable rate cases; setbacks could delay the 6–8% long-term EPS growth target.
- Technical weakness. Stock at $18.39 trades below both the 50-day ($20.03) and 200-day ($20.69) moving averages with bearish MACD; oversold RSI of 25.4 could signal further deterioration rather than reversal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative (as of 2026-09-23): pe_vs_median_pct -13.0%, ev_to_ebitda_vs_median_pct -19.6% · quarterly_results: Q2 2026 EPS $0.10 (period ended 2026-06-30), Q2 2025 EPS $0.0672 · news: Seeking Alpha article published 2026-09-02 · fundamentals: FY 2025 gross_profit $404.9M, FY 2024 gross_profit $571.936M. Orin's read on MDU; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MDU filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $269.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Earnest Partners | $206.3M | 0.7% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $199.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $157.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $129.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $86.7M | 0.0% of fund |
63 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 61 Form 4 filings, net −$3.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MDU
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.6× | — | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.1× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.13× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.3× | — | — |
What Wall Street published
$25
$25 – $25 · +34% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDUMDU Resources Group, Inc. | $4B | 19.6× | 13.1× | 42.4% | 10.8% | 7% |
| AGXArgan, Inc. | $5B | 28.1× | 21.5× | 20.9% | 15.1% | 39% |
| ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc. | $6B | 23.5× | 16.2× | 13.0% | 6.0% | 38% |
| FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4B | 27.7× | 16.4× | 35.5% | 7.1% | 12% |
| GFFGriffon Corporation | $4B | 21.4× | 11.6× | 43.4% | 9.1% | 198% |
| MWAMueller Water Products, Inc. | $3B | 15.0× | 9.6× | 37.9% | 15.0% | 21% |
| WSCWillScot Holdings Corporation | $3B | — | 19.6× | 48.4% | -3.0% | -7% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 16.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.