MDU Resources Group, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
MDU Resources is upgraded to a cautious buy: the September 30, 2026 Final Investment Decision on the Bakken East Pipeline converts the previously wait-and-see capex story into committed rate-base growth, and management has reaffirmed FY 2026 EPS guidance of $0.93–$1.00 with a 6–8% long-term EPS growth target.
The stock trades at a 13.5% P/E discount (19.9x vs. peer median 23.0x) and a 30% EV/EBITDA discount to peers, while Q2 2026 EPS of $0.10 grew from $0.07 a year earlier and modestly beat the $0.09 estimate. The stance stays cautious because FY 2025 free cash flow was negative $318.6M against $792M of capex, total debt rose to $2.74B, and the stock at $18.89 still sits below both its 50-day ($19.56) and 200-day ($20.65) moving averages as of 7 Oct.
What could go wrong
- Persistent negative free cash flow. FY 2025 free cash flow was negative $318.6M with capex of $792M, and FCF has been negative in three of the last four fiscal years; the Bakken East build adds further funding demands on top of the $3.1B capital plan through 2030.
- Rising leverage. Total debt climbed to $2.74B at FY 2025 year-end from $2.29B a year earlier, while stockholders' equity declined, tightening the balance sheet just as the pipeline FID commits new capital.
- Earnings stagnation. EPS has fallen for two consecutive years (FY 2025 EPS of $0.93, down 32.1% year over year), and FY 2026 guidance of $0.93–$1.00 implies roughly flat earnings versus 2025.
- Weak price trend and institutional apathy. The stock closed at $18.89 on 7 Oct, below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the smart money score as of the quarter ended 30 Jun was slightly negative at -0.0123.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news, 30 Sep · news, 2 Sep · fundamentals, to 31 Dec 2025 · results and earnings vs estimates, quarter to 30 Jun. Orin's read on MDU; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 2.0% over twelve months, from $20.00 on 27 Oct 2025 to $19.60 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $22.80 on 11 May 2026; the last close is 14.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 6.9M, on 6 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MDU filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $580.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $269.2M | 0.0% |
| Earnest Partners | $206.3M | 0.7% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $199.7M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $157.4M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $129.2M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $86.7M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $75.4M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $55.9M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $49.4M | 0.0% |
64 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 61 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $765K. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MDU
Orin answers questions about MDU from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.9× | — | 18.5× |
| P/S | 2.09× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.3× | — | — |
- Until November 2024 this company also owned construction businesses — Knife River, spun off in 2023, and Everus, in 2024. Earlier figures include them, so they are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: 4 firms rated it in the last 18 months. Every 12-month price target on file is $25 (the low and the high are the same, so it may be a single analyst's) — 28% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$25
$25 – $25 · +28% against the last close
- 2 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDUMDU Resources Group, Inc. | $4B | 19.9× | 11.8× | 41.4% | 10.3% | 7% |
| AGXArgan, Inc. | $5B | 26.5× | 20.3× | 20.9% | 15.1% | 39% |
| ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc. | $5B | 20.5× | 13.8× | 13.0% | 6.0% | 38% |
| FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4B | 21.8× | 14.6× | 35.4% | 8.8% | 14% |
| GFFGriffon Corporation | $5B | 22.2× | 11.9× | 43.4% | 9.1% | 198% |
| MWAMueller Water Products, Inc. | $4B | 17.2× | 10.8× | 37.9% | 15.0% | 20% |
| WSCWillScot Holdings Corporation | $3B | lost money | 15.0× | 49.7% | −2.6% | −7% |
- WSC: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now19.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.