MetLife, Inc. MET
MetLife's Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.43 (up 20% YoY) and adjusted ROE at 17% — the top of its 15–17% target range — confirm strong operational momentum, and the stock has cooled from its prior overbought state to $95.11 with a neutral RSI of ~50. However, MET still trades at 18.1x trailing P/E versus a peer median of 11.2x (a 62% premium), while FY2025 GAAP net income declined 23.7% to $3.38B and operating margin compressed to 6.05% from 8.04% the prior year.
Smart money has turned slightly positive (score 0.034 as of Q2 2026) and BlackRock disclosed a large new position, but the valuation premium and uneven GAAP earnings trajectory keep the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. P/E of 18.1x sits 62% above the peer median of 11.2x; any disappointment in adjusted earnings could trigger multiple compression toward peers.
- GAAP earnings deterioration. FY2025 net income fell 23.7% YoY to $3.38B and EPS dropped 19.2% to $4.80, even as revenue grew 10.2%, signaling cost or reserve pressure that could persist.
- Interest-rate sensitivity. Recent news highlights 5% Treasury yields; life insurers face spread and duration risk if rates move sharply.
- Insider net selling. Over 24 months, insider net value was -$9.3M despite 126 acquisitions versus 17 dispositions, suggesting most acquisitions are equity grants offset by cash sales.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights, 2026-08-08 · Technicals as of 2026-08-19 · Peer relative data · FMP FY2025 and derived_metrics. Orin's read on MET; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MET filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $1.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
97 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 156 Form 4 filings, net −$10.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MET
Orin answers questions about MET from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.5× | 12.8× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1× | 7.5× | — |
| P/S | 0.80× | 0.81× | — |
| P/B | 2.3× | 1.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.33σ from its own mean).
-18.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $18.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$103
$95 – $111 · +6% against today's price
- 26 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| METMetLife, Inc. | $63B | 18.5× | 10.1× | 25.6% | 4.6% | 13% |
| AFLAflac Incorporated | $58B | 12.2× | 8.8× | 53.9% | 26.9% | 16% |
| GLGlobe Life Inc. | $13B | 11.0× | 24.8× | 17.0% | 19.6% | 20% |
| PRUPrudential Financial, Inc. | $41B | 10.7× | 8.8× | 30.8% | 5.9% | 12% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 68.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $190 | $87.44 · +117% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $567 | $87.44 · +549% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.