METANasdaq·Internet Content & Information

Meta Platforms, Inc. META

Market cap $1.90TP/E 27.7× trailingGross margin 81.7%Reports Wed 28 Oct, after the close

$744.10

+7.50 (+1.02%)Wed close 16:00 ET

52-wk $520.26 – $763.80

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Orin's take

0.62conviction · moderate

Refreshed 16 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

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Meta's core advertising engine remains exceptional—FY2025 revenue grew 22% to $201B with operating income up 20% to $83.3B—but the massive AI capex cycle has compressed the cash flow profile that matters to shareholders: FCF fell to $46.1B from $54.1B in FY2024 while capex nearly doubled to $69.7B and total debt surged to $84B from $49B. At 21.9x earnings the stock trades at a ~21% P/E discount to the peer median of 27.8x, which is attractive on paper, but net income actually declined YoY to $60.5B and smart money flows have turned sharply negative (-0.465 as of Q1 2026).

With price below both the 50-day ($597) and 200-day ($628) moving averages and AI monetization still unproven, the valuation discount is justified rather than a clear bargain; patience is warranted until capex returns become visible.

What could go wrong

AI capex returns delayed. FY2025 capex of $69.7B (nearly double FY2024's $37.3B) has compressed FCF to $46.1B; if AI-driven ad targeting improvements or new revenue streams don't materialize, the investment cycle could destroy shareholder value for an extended period.
Balance sheet deterioration. Total debt surged to $84B from $49B in one year while net income declined to $60.5B from $62.4B, raising leverage concerns if the capex ramp continues into FY2026.
Smart money exodus. Smart money score deteriorated from +1.70 in June 2025 to -0.465 by March 2026, with fund count rising to 79, suggesting institutional positioning is turning cautious even as headline fund count grows.
Off-balance-sheet AI risk. GuruFocus reports Meta is using joint ventures to fund data-center buildout, keeping roughly $27B in obligations off balance sheet, which could mask true leverage and complicate return-on-capital analysis.

What would change my mind

FCF recovery. Quarterly FCF turns back above $15B run-rate or capex guidance is revised downward, signaling the capex cycle is peakingbullish

Further margin compression. Operating margin continues to decline from the current 41.4% as capex-driven depreciation and interest costs accelerate, or net income falls further below the $60.5B FY2025 levelbearish

Technical breakdown. Price closes decisively below $550, confirming the Seeking Alpha tactical downside target and signaling deeper institutional sellingbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals. Orin's read on META; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All META filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
13G/A	6 Aug	—	on file
10-Q	29 Jul	Total revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2026, was $60.80 billion, an increase of 28% year-over-year, driven by a 27% increase in advertising revenue.	read
8-K	29 Jul	Meta Platforms, Inc. reported second quarter 2026 results on July 29, 2026. Revenue increased 28% year-over-year to $60.80 billion, while costs and expenses rose 55% to $42.03…	read
8-K	29 May	Meta Platforms, Inc. held its annual shareholder meeting on May 27, 2026, where all twelve director nominees were elected. Shareholders ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young…	read
8-K	4 May	Meta closed a $25 billion senior notes offering on May 4, 2026, across six tranches maturing 2031-2066 with coupons from 4.55% to 6.45%.	read
13G	30 Apr	—	on file
10-Q	29 Apr	Meta Platforms reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $56.31 billion, up 33% year-over-year and 7% sequentially, driven by a 33% increase in Family of Apps advertising revenue to $55.02 billion.	read
8-K	29 Apr	Meta filed an 8-K on April 29, 2026, solely to furnish its Q1 2026 earnings press release (Exhibit 99.1) and announce the related conference call, triggering Item 2.02.	read

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$80.8B	1.7% of fund
Fmr	$54.0B	2.3% of fund
State Street	$51.8B	1.5% of fund
Geode Capital Management	$30.8B	1.6% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &	$25.8B	1.4% of fund
Capital World Investors	$23.0B	2.7% of fund

273 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 695 Form 4 filings, net $8.0B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 49 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Communication Services

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	27.7×	23.8×	26.3×
EV/EBITDA	18.6×	16.4×	—
P/S	8.30×	8.03×	—
P/B	7.2×	7.6×	—

Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.13σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

17.5%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $46.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

65 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$749

$595 – $886 · +1% against today's price

How they rate it

52 buy or overweight
11 hold
2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 29.0× of 9 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
METAMeta Platforms, Inc.	$1.90T	27.7×	18.6×	81.7%	29.8%	30%
AMATApplied Materials, Inc.	$377B	40.6×	33.1×	49.4%	30.1%	40%
AVGOBroadcom Inc.	$1.69T	44.0×	33.0×	67.7%	42.9%	44%
CSCOCisco Systems, Inc.	$419B	31.7×	22.1×	64.5%	21.0%	27%
GOOGLAlphabet Inc.	$4.09T	16.6×	12.7×	60.9%	54.8%	51%
GRMNGarmin Ltd.	$55B	29.5×	22.1×	60.1%	24.5%	21%
IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation	$219B	20.3×	17.1×	58.4%	15.5%	34%
MUMicron Technology, Inc.	$1.21T	23.9×	17.4×	72.6%	55.9%	71%
ORCLOracle Corporation	$416B	22.3×	14.2×	63.9%	26.4%	43%
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited	$2.32T	29.0×	19.2×	64.2%	50.4%	39%

The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 4.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY14 69.7×FY25 27.5×

What its sector has traded at

Communication Services

FY14 34.0×FY26 29.1×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$280	$575.54 · −51%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$594	$575.54 · +3%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $744.10

52-week range$520 – $764

Analyst targets$595 – $886

Standard DCF$280 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $575.54

Levered DCF$594 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $575.54

At own 5y-median P/E (24×)$640

At 5y P/E range (14–28×)$375 – $741

At sector P/E (26×)$707

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.