MGM Resorts International MGM
MGM trades at $42.28, well below Barry Diller's pending $48.30/share takeover bid, but the widening gap reflects growing market skepticism about deal closure as securities law firms investigate whether the offer is adequate. Standalone fundamentals deteriorated sharply in FY2025—net income fell to $206M from $746.6M in FY2024, operating margin compressed to 5.71% from 8.65%, and total debt surged to $56.2B against just $2.43B in stockholders' equity.
The stock is pinned between a potentially lucrative deal premium and deeply weak standalone economics; hold pending deal resolution or a revised bid.
What could go wrong
- Deal failure. If the Diller bid at $48.30/share collapses or is materially delayed, the stock would likely re-rate toward standalone fundamentals, which are deteriorating with FY2025 net margin of just 1.18%.
- Leverage. Total debt of $56.2B at FY2025 year-end against only $2.43B in equity creates a fragile balance sheet if cash flows weaken further; FY2025 free cash flow of $1.67B provides limited cushion relative to the debt load.
- Operational decline. Operating margin compressed from 8.65% in FY2024 to 5.71% in FY2025, and revenue growth slowed to 1.72% YoY, signaling weakening demand or rising cost pressures across Las Vegas and regional operations.
- Regulatory/legal overhang. Securities law firm investigations into the fairness of the $48.30 offer could delay or complicate deal closure, prolonging uncertainty for shareholders.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals (as_of_date 2026-08-28) · GlobeNewsWire article published 2026-08-26 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024. Orin's read on MGM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MGM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $581.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $395.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $337.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $256.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Corvex Management | $255.7M | 7.8% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $240.7M | 0.0% of fund |
88 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 174 Form 4 filings, net $53.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MGM
Orin answers questions about MGM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.2× | 14.3× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.0× | 16.8× | — |
| P/S | 0.48× | 0.98× | — |
| P/B | 3.4× | 3.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.01σ from its own mean).
-11.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$49
$35 – $55 · +49% against today's price
- 19 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $129 | $46.69 · +177% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $66 | $46.69 · +41% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.