MGM Resorts International
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
MGM Resorts trades at $28.60 as of October 16, 2026, deeply oversold (RSI 17.6) and well below its 50-day ($37.83) and 200-day ($39.38) moving averages after Barry Diller's $48.30/share takeover bid collapsed, stripping out the deal premium.
Standalone operations show sequential improvement—Q2 2026 EPS of $1.11 versus $0.18 in Q2 2025 and BetMGM Q3 revenue of $710M up 7%—but FY2025 was weak with operating margin compressing to 5.7% from 8.7% and total debt surging to $56.2B against just $2.43B in equity, leaving EV/EBITDA at 17.3x, roughly 99% above the peer median. The stock is cheap on P/S at 0.41x (71.5% below peer median) and technically washed out, but the debt overhang and absence of a takeout catalyst argue for patience until operating leverage from improving quarterly results is confirmed.
What could go wrong
- Debt burden. Total debt surged to $56.2B in FY2025 from $31.6B in FY2024 against only $2.43B in stockholders' equity, driving EV/EBITDA to 17.3x, nearly double the peer median of 8.7x.
- Margin compression. FY2025 operating margin fell to 5.7% from 8.7% in FY2024 and 11.7% in FY2023, with net income declining 72.4% YoY to $206M; Q3 2025 posted a negative operating income of $112.9M.
- Failed takeover overhang. The withdrawal of the $48.30/share bid and pending securities investigation into the offer create legal and strategic uncertainty that may cap upside near-term.
- Revenue growth deceleration. FY2025 revenue growth slowed to 1.7% from 6.7% in FY2024, and Q2 2026 revenue grew just 1.0% YoY, suggesting core Las Vegas and regional operations are softening.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals · news, 14 Oct · quarterly results · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on MGM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 14.9% over twelve months, from $32.91 on 27 Oct 2025 to $27.99 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $50.69 on 1 Jun 2026; the last close is 44.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 27.7M, on 1 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MGM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $604.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $581.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $395.2M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $337.0M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $256.9M | 0.0% |
| Corvex Management | $255.7M | 7.8% |
| Geode Capital Management | $240.7M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $226.8M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $149.7M | 0.0% |
| Point72 Asset Management | $139.7M | 0.2% |
90 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 276 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $61.6M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MGM
Orin answers questions about MGM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 18.4×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.8×below usual | 18.4× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 0.40×below usual | 0.98× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.3×near usual | 16.7× | — |
| P/B | 2.8×below usual | 3.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $43.75 (from $29 to $55) — 56% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$43.75
$29 – $55 · +56% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (LVS 14.7×, WYNN 21.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGMMGM Resorts International | $7B | 16.8× | 17.3× | 44.2% | 2.4% | 17% |
| LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. | $23B | 14.7× | 8.0× | 49.9% | 12.0% | n/m |
| WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited | $8B | 21.6× | 12.5× | 28.9% | 5.6% | n/m |
- LVS, WYNN: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $126 a share — 354% above the $27.87 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $126 | 354% above $27.87 |
| Levered | $64 | 128% above $27.87 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.