The Middleby Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Middleby's transformation into a pure-play commercial foodservice company is now largely complete — the Midera spin-off closed July 6, 2026, the residential kitchen business was divested, and the Brewing Group wind-down was announced September 9, 2026 — yet revenue is still declining, with Q2 2026 revenue of $875.5M down 10.5% YoY and Q1 2026 still posting a net loss of $50.1M.
The stock at $102.69 as of October 1, 2026 is deeply oversold (RSI 28.6) and trades at a P/S of 1.34x versus a peer median of 1.69x, while insiders have been net accumulators of 821,260 shares over 24 months and FY2025 still generated $558.4M in free cash flow at a 17.4% FCF margin despite a $277.7M net loss driven by Q3 2025 impairments. The turnaround thesis is credible but unconfirmed by sustained revenue stabilization, and the stock remains in a downtrend below both its 50-day ($117.44) and 200-day ($121.50) moving averages.
What could go wrong
- Revenue erosion persists. Q2 2026 revenue declined 10.5% YoY and Q1 2026 declined 7.4% YoY; if post-spin-off commercial foodservice demand does not stabilize, the FCF base could compress.
- Downtrend not broken. Stock at $102.69 trades well below both MA50 of $117.44 and MA200 of $121.50 as of 1 Oct, with MACD histogram still negative at -0.265.
- Trailing earnings distorted. FY2025 net loss of $277.7M and EPS of -$5.38, heavily driven by Q3 2025 operating loss of $554.2M, make P/E-based valuation unreliable and could deter institutional buyers.
- Smart money still negative. Smart money score of -0.03 as of Q2 2026 (filed 30 Jun) remains slightly negative, though improving from -0.06 at year-end 2025.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news, 13 Aug · news, 9 Sep · Q2 FY26 results · Q1 FY26 results. Orin's read on MIDD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 8.8% over twelve months, from $105.69 on 27 Oct 2025 to $115.00 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $144.15 on 6 Jul 2026; the last close is 20.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.0M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MIDD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| BlackRock | $676.0M | 0.0% |
| Garden Investment Management | $581.3M | 72.9% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $423.4M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $323.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $320.0M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $304.6M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $231.9M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $229.3M | 0.0% |
| Earnest Partners | $218.9M | 0.8% |
70 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 92 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $108.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 17 were open-market purchases and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MIDD
Orin answers questions about MIDD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 1.65× its yearly sales — above its usual level (1.57×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 14.8× | 18.4× |
| P/S | 1.65×above usual | 1.57× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | not meaningful | — | — |
| P/B | n/m | 2.1× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: not meaningful — over the last 12 months the business itself lost money before depreciation (operating income plus depreciation is below zero); a profit from one-off gains does not count.
- P/B: not meaningful (n/m) — its book value is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $159 (from $145 to $205) — 38% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$159
$145 – $205 · +38% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (JBTM 29.3×, SXI 28.0×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIDDThe Middleby Corporation | $6B | lost money | n/m | 38.0% | −13.2% | −26% |
| JBTMJBT Marel Corporation | $6B | 29.3× | 13.0× | 35.6% | 4.9% | 4% |
| SXIStandex International Corporation | $3B | 28.0× | 14.5× | 41.7% | 11.7% | 14% |
- MIDD: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $89 a share — 21% below the $113.68 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $89 | 21% below $113.68 |
| Levered | $98 | 14% below $113.68 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.