McCormick & Company, Incorporated
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
MKC is a hold at $45.86 as of 19 Oct.
Revenue growth has accelerated sharply in FY2026 with Q3 revenue of $2.02B posting 17.4% YoY growth, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, but Q3 FY2026 operating income of $217M on $2.02B in revenue signals margin compression relative to the FY2025 operating margin of 15.7%. The stock trades at a PE of 8.26, a 42.8% discount to the peer median of 14.44, yet remains below both its 50-day MA of $50.33 and 200-day MA of $54.23 with insiders net selling 500,516 shares over the past 24 months. The growth acceleration appears acquisition-driven and the margin trajectory in recent quarters is unclear, making this a wait-and-see situation until Q4 FY2026 results confirm whether top-line strength translates to bottom-line quality.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Q3 FY2026 operating income of $217M on revenue of $2.02B implies a quarterly operating margin well below the FY2025 full-year operating margin of 15.7%, suggesting acquisition-related costs or mix shift are eroding profitability.
- Insider selling. Over the past 24 months insiders have net sold 500,516 shares for net value of approximately $31.6M, with only small phantom stock grants and one token 1,000-share purchase at $44.61 by director Hattersley in October 2026.
- Downtrend persists. The stock at $45.86 trades below both its 50-day MA of $50.33 and 200-day MA of $54.23, and while RSI has recovered to 42.14 from prior oversold levels, the technical trend remains bearish.
- Low institutional conviction. Smart money score is just 0.015 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun with only 64 funds holding the stock, indicating limited institutional enthusiasm.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 FY26 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · technicals, 19 Oct. Orin's read on MKC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 29.3% over twelve months, from $67.13 on 27 Oct 2025 to $47.48 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $71.65 on 12 Feb 2026; the last close is 33.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 17.1M, on 22 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All MKC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $837.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $772.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $698.4M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $342.1M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $248.7M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $247.3M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $230.8M | 0.1% |
| Alyeska Investment Group | $200.8M | 0.5% |
| Northern Trust | $179.6M | 0.0% |
93 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 308 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$31.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MKC
Orin answers questions about MKC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 8.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 26.7×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6×below usual | 26.7× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 1.66×below usual | 3.13× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5×below usual | 19.3× | — |
| P/B | 1.8×below usual | 4.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $53.50 (from $47 to $62) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$53.50
$47 – $62 · +13% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 8.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKCMcCormick & Company, Incorporated | $13B | 8.6× | 12.5× | 39.1% | 19.4% | 22% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | $7B | lost money | n/m | 23.8% | −17.0% | −26% |
| CPBCampbell Soup Company | $6B | 15.4× | 10.1× | 28.1% | 4.1% | 10% |
| KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company | $30B | lost money | n/m | 33.5% | −14.0% | −9% |
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | $80B | 22.8× | 16.0× | 31.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
| SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company | $14B | 59.3× | 15.3× | 38.7% | 2.5% | 4% |
- CAG, KHC: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- CAG, KHC: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 8.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now8.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $64 a share — 35% above the $47.45 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $64 | 35% above $47.45 |
| Levered | $48 | 1% above $47.45 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.