McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC
MKC remains a hold as the core franchise is genuinely improving—FY2025 operating margin reached 16.0% from 13.6% in FY2022, free cash flow hit $740M, and total debt was cut from roughly $5.3B to $4.0B—but the pending $65B Unilever Foods merger slated for 2027 completion introduces outsized financing and integration risk relative to MKC's $6.84B revenue base. The stock trades at 9.2x P/E, a 72% discount to the peer median of 33.2x, yet the 2.0x P/S sits 187% above the peer median of 0.70x, indicating the depressed earnings multiple reflects deal-leverage risk rather than pure mispricing.
With price still below the 200-day MA of $57.42, 24-month insider net selling of $41.7M, and smart money only marginally constructive at 0.015, clarity on deal financing structure and integration execution is needed before turning bullish.
What could go wrong
- Deal financing and leverage. A $65B Unilever Foods acquisition against a $6.84B revenue base could materially elevate leverage and compress the equity story post-close.
- Consumer trade-down. Persistent private-label pressure on legacy brands could erode the 37.9% gross margin and 16.0% operating margin achieved in FY2025.
- Integration execution. Combining two large global organizations with planned London secondary listing and Netherlands HQ adds operational complexity that could distract from core execution.
- Insider net selling. 24-month insider net dispositions of $41.7M across 301 transactions signal limited insider conviction at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2022 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2022 and FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 and derived_metrics. Orin's read on MKC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MKC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $837.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $772.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $698.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $342.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $248.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $247.3M | 0.0% of fund |
91 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 304 Form 4 filings, net −$41.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MKC
Orin answers questions about MKC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2× | 26.7× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0× | 19.3× | — |
| P/S | 1.79× | 3.13× | — |
| P/B | 1.9× | 4.0× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−5.15σ from its own mean).
6.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$59
$52 – $68 · +21% against today's price
- 10 buy or overweight
- 18 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKCMcCormick & Company, Incorporated | $13B | 8.2× | 13.0× | 38.6% | 22.0% | 26% |
| BGBunge Global S.A. | $21B | 21.6× | 15.0× | 4.9% | 1.1% | 6% |
| CPBCampbell Soup Company | $6B | 15.2× | 10.1× | 28.1% | 4.1% | 10% |
| HRLHormel Foods Corporation | $11B | 31.6× | 14.9× | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4% |
| SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company | $13B | 56.9× | 14.9× | 38.7% | 2.5% | 4% |
| TSNTyson Foods, Inc. | $18B | 30.8× | 9.8× | 6.2% | 1.0% | 3% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 73.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $68 | $49.60 · +38% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $57 | $49.60 · +14% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.